Reggie: No Wii successor talk until Wii hits 45 million in US

[trestres]

Aielyn said:

DavidValbu said:

Yes, you are right, the problem with Wii sales currently is JAPAN. No matter if they launch a kirby, Mario, Metrois, Donkey Kong or a Zelda game, that the sales will not go up.

What's the basis of this claim?

Also, I feel I need to point out a franchise that could catapult Japanese Wii sales up - Pokemon. The only "real" pokemon game for Wii so far was Pokemon Battle Revolution, a launch title. With Gen 5 pokemon out in Japan now, I'm expecting at least a new "stadium" pokemon title within the next year, probably early next year. It might even end up being a new Orre title.

 Keep in mind, the last Pokemon title to release in Japan on Wii at all was Pokepark, and that was in 2009. Meanwhile, Pokemon Black/White is selling far faster than its predecessors on DS and GBA.

 And Pokemon isn't the only franchise that can do it, it's just the one that is best-positioned to do so. The Last Story has great potential, being practically a new Final Fantasy in the vein of the old ones that sold so well in Japan. Also notable is Sonic Colors, which could help push Wii in Japan, as could Flingsmash and Mario Sports Mix - all three releasing in November.

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I hope you were not serious, those games will be lucky to sell 10 extra Wii's put together. Seriously, Sonic Colours won't even reach 30k sold LT there and FlingSmash could sell 100k if lucky, but only because it comes bundled with a WiiMote Plus.

Wii's situation in Japan is abysmal right now, there's nothing coming up in the near future that could help it turn things around. That's why Nintendo is resorting to making new bundles, new colours, new WiiMote models, old re-releases and big ad campaigns. New SW isn't selling at all, even Kirby is a bomb in comparison to previous titles in the franchise.

As for The Last Story, I'm thinking, based on previous RPG's released for the Wii there, that the game will reach 250k max. Won't be moving consoles at all, the Wii base is already established as far as core gamers are concerned. Mario Sports Mix will not push sales, there's way too many Mario games already in Japan, even Sports and Party Mario games, it will mostly sell to the existing base, no doubt about that.

DQX is really the only game that will push sales significantly, but that's a good 2 years away if not more considering how long SE takes to release their games and that they haven't even named the game yet or shown a logo/screenshot, etc.

Pokemon won't make a difference either, unless it's a full fledged game, which won't ever make it to consoles.

I think Reggie is just calming down the waters, mainly words for possible investors, because of course, who would admit they've got a new console coming up just before the Christmas season? Remember that last year Nintendo said that they weren't going to cut the Wii price anytime soon, and then a couple weeks later the Wii had gone from 250$ to 200$.