Conegamer said:
Just like the Wii would fail so hard that it'll have to pull out of HW production? Or like how NSMBWii wouldn't sell more than 2mil max? Trust me, there's not much you can predict. Brain Taining, Nintendogs, NSMBWii, Just Dance...all runaway successes. And no-one knows what the next one will be... |
As soon as it first released and the masses got their hands on Wii Sports everyone should have realized that Nintendo was printing gold blocks and selling them for $250 each. (sadly not many did as we were so ingraned in believing that Nintendo was doomed for last)
Those denying NSMBWii wouldn't sell like crazy were crazy.
Nintendogs and Brain Training are much more mainstream, so 1m isn't unbelievable, but I'm sure no one expected 20m.
Just Dance is the only true one in a million hit you've listed, but it does have popular appeal that was executed well enough.
Now, none of the examples you listed really had a precedent showing that they would perform under a certain level, while Okamiden does. Okamiden is the inferior little brother to Okami and the DS has a broader spectrum of owners than the PS2 did (so more "non gamers" if you will)
My 800k prediction is pretty much the upper bound of reasonable sales expectations. As I said, I can't rule 1m out, as it isn't as set in stone as say Safari Adventures: Africa would never break 1m. But to break 1m would be an amazing success. Now I wouldn't be surprised by anyone who took Broutros' stance as mine is a realistic optimistic view where as his isn't.
