*Wii upgrade in 2010*?

[trestres]

jarrod said:

Smashchu2 said:

jarrod said:

Smashchu2 said:

Mr Khan said:

Viper1 said:

That Nintendo France thing was fake.

 

We won't see a new Nintendo home console until 2012 at the earliest.

Holidays 2011. The loss of steam in Japan is going to push them up, even though they could probably hold out until 2012 if it weren't for Japan.

 

Dragon Quest X (where in the hell was that at TGS anyway?) will give the Wii a slambang finish in the region, but otherwise they couldn't last until 2012

Except for the fact that the Wii was struggling in Japan as early as 2008.

With the 3DS, there is no way they can make a new system in 2011. It just isn't happening.

GBA and GC were 7 months apart.  VB and N64 were 10 months.  It's not like Nintendo hasn't done this sort of thing before, and plenty of their teams are currently unaccounted for (EAD Tokyo notably).

And 3rd party wise, they'd get a deluge of content coming in pretty quick.  It'd be Portmageddon, almost everyone would jump at the chance to finally bring their HD games over to Nintendo.

We both know that neither of those had a lot fo games and one suffered because of it.

Nintendo understands that a successful system demand good momentum. This is why Sony is still struggeling with the PS3. This is also why Nintendo has 7 of their own games already lined up for the system. They want to start strong. This means most developers will be tied to the 3DS. This also means Wii 2 can't get enough software.

Nintendo is not going to launch a Wii 2 in 2011 because it would make them too vunerable. A new Wii will come soon, but still later (2012 is the earliest). Nintendo is also not going to follow the same strategy as one of their least successful home consoles.

GC/GBA were pretty loaded with games upfront.  N64/VB less so, but those were due chiefly to market and pricing factors rather than some inability of Nintendo/others to simultaneously support two distinct platforms.  

And momentum is exactly why Nintendo will launch first with Wii 2, and why it'll come just a year after 3DS.  They'll want to get the industry (publishers, developers, media, retail, consumers) lined up behind them first and foremost, this is exactly what they're doing with 3DS and it's (so far) working out.  The plan with 3DS was basically to consolidate their own strengths (in DS) with those of their competitor (PSP), and I think you'll see the same for Wii 2; hold on to their own mainstream/casual Wii base, and grab a good chuck of that vocal HD hardcore from PS3/360.  They'll also want to continue Wii's forward momentum and seamlessly transition that to next cycle, momentum which seems to be waning already and is almost gone in Japan... the longer Nintendo waits, the more they risk industry segments moving to or staying with Sony and Microsoft, especially now that both have introduced their own motion control alternatives.  They're going to try and "PS2" the competition...

I totally agree with this. Nintendo is the one that has to make a move now to prevent losing the top position. MS and Sony are getting most of the support and that's why their machines will remain relevant for a long time, as their userbase tends to buy many more games because it's more active.

But Nintendo will have to differentiate a lot from the PS3, 360 and even Wii with Wii 2 to make an impact. I don't know what they are going to do, but the specs will need to be higher than those of the PS3 and 360, while at the same time have something other than motion controls (which 360 and PS3 already have) to attract new buyers. They are in a very tough position, because most of the times, something very innovative means risk. Risk in the sense that VB was innovative, but was a complete failure. Risk that you pour so much money in and you may not get it back. And at the same time, Nintendo needs to have something completely ground breaking in the next 1 and a half years, and that's no easy task for anyone.

Plus their new machine will be somewhat expensive if it up specs the 360 and PS3 while maintaining the same core functions like BD drive, wifi, Harddrive, HDMI ports, backwards compatibility, etc. Being expensive will violate Nintendo's strategy of releasing a console accessible to the majority and they will be in risk tht 3rd parties will ignore it to keep supporting both PS3 and 360 if the specs are close between the systems.

Very tough position for Nintendo this gen. If they don't plan things well, they could have another 3rd party disaster in their hands and fall dramatically in HW sales next gen considering that MS and Sony will be in very healthy conditions.