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kain_kusanagi on 26 August 2010
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HexenLord said:
kain_kusanagi said:
HexenLord said:


A possibility, but its not very probable. GTA wasn't a game that people went out and bought a PS just to play. Especially when the game went Multi-plat, there were more options for them. Some already had a 360 thanks to the earlier release, and didn't have to bother with purchasing a PS3. Besides, a lot of the old GTA game sales were to minors, something that has been restricted quite a bit in the last 3-4 years.

 

GT is still exclusive and a flagship title. Its one of the games that people will own a playstation just to play, even if its their only game. GTA didn't have that advantage, even after going multiplat.

 

Even if it doesn't break the lowest of GT sales (9.37 million), it won't be very far behind. With all of the innovative features GT is going to include over the previous games in the series (and other games currently on the PS3), its userbase should actually expand quite nicely. Sales may be low at first due to a much smaller userbase for the PS3 over the previous consoles at the time of other games' releases, but the PS3 should sell upward of ~50 million more consoles in its lifetime, with roughly 10% of those users willing to purchase GT5

The PS3 is NOT the PS2. This generation's PS2 is the Wii and Sony and Microsoft are tied. 50 million more? This generation only has another two, maybe three, years left. Sony would have to sell twice as much in half the time plus another almost 20 million more to get 50 million additional machines in homes by the end of this generation. It's just not going to happen unless SOny decided to sell the thing for $49.99.

As for GT5, it's going to sell fine, but you seem to be under the impression that racing sim games are as populare as they were ten years ago. I don't know, they might be, but it seems like FPS has taken the crown as the most popular genre. GT used to be the only high quality racing sim available. Not so any more. Forza 3, Dirt 2, NFS Shift, etc have splintered the market. Sure there are plenty of die hard GT fans who bought their PS3s in anticipation of GT5, but all those casual racing fans who inflated GT3's numbers have probably already purchased a high quality racing sim that abated their need for speed last year and continues to abate it today. Some might still pick up a copy of GT5, but you can't expect GT5 to enter the same market GT3 did?

Polyphony has made the same mistake that Sony made with the PS3. They went too big, took too long, and spent too much money. Their competitores did it faster, cheaper, and have already made their profit. By the time GT5 hits the market it will be entering a world full of racing games of all kinds of genres that consumers will already have in their homes putting smiles on their faces. People tend not to pay for the same thing twice even for a minor upgrade. Forza 3 and NFS Shift give quality racing sim fans what they crave just as well as GT5 will, but they are already doing it while GT5 is still sitting on the starting line. Sure once it hits the gas it will be impressive, but you can't win a race if you don't turn the key.

 

And whats your point? You're saying that if the generation only has another 3 years, that NO ps3 consoles will be sold after the next gen of consoles is released? Sorry, but research tells otherwise. For example, do you know that the PS2 has outsold the Xbox 360 since the 360 was released? But... but.... but.... that can't be, the last generation was over 4 years ago! The PS3 will be on store shelves for at least another ~5 years before it finally gets pulled of. I'd say an average of 10 million per year won't be too hard to do, considering the PS3 is just now reaching its peak. 

 

Btw, I'm not under the impression that racing games were as popular before. I know they aren't. Mainly because of the poor quality of games that have surfaced in the last ~3-4 years. Need for Speed and Midnight Club series have thrown out half a dozen shoddy titles in that amount of time that put a sour taste in everyones mouth. GT5 won't have cataclysmic early sales because of this. Reviews and innovations are whats going to help it stay on its feet and keeps its 'legs' moving for the next few years. 

 

People tend not to pay for the same thing twice even for a minor upgrade? I take it you've never went to school and taken courses on market research or analytical studies? People spend tens of thousands of dollars to buy new cars when their 'old' one isn't even old yet. People sell their house and buy different ones even though they already own one. People buy new computers when they 'feel' like their old one is slightly outdated. The average cell phone user upgrades his/her phone once a year even though they one they have works just fine. Saying people won't buy GT5 because there are already games out there like Forza 3 and NFS: Shift isn't by any means different from these situations. There are 30 million PS3 owners that don't own an Xbox or Forza. Over 80% of the racing sim fans didn't buy NFS: Shift because they either didn't have interest in it or know the poor quality of NFS games.

 

So by your logic of people not buying the same thing twice even if its an upgrade... then Halo: Reach CERTAINLY doesn't have 1 million pre-orders right now... because Halo 3 has been on the market for years now. Wait, what? Halo DOES have over a million pre-orders? IMPOSSIBLE.


I want to keep this discussion friendly as I'm sure you do, but I do want to counterpoint.

1. I didn't say the PS3 wouldn't sell any consoles after the nearing end of this generation. But it's not going to sell like the PS2 did, that is for certain. The PS2 is a freakish fluke, like the Atari 2600 was. But the Atari 5200 and 7800 didn't last. In my opinion the PS3 will sell no better than the Xbox 360 and in a couple years when this generation is winding down people will be looking to the future. The PS2 might still be selling well thanks to countries that have no other options, but the PS3 won't have the legs of the PS2.

2. The last few years have not been a wastland of poor quality racing games. In fact we have seen the racing genre grow in quality. Forza 3 is amazing, Dirt 2 is killer, NFS Shift cemented itself as a full fledged rival to the GT series. If GT5 has slow sales it won't be because people have  a bad taste in their mouth from awsome games like the ones I mentioned. It will be becuase they are still having fun with them and don't feel the need to buy grab a slight upgrade.

3. Video Games aren't cars, houses, or cell phones. They are more like books and movies. If you're in the middle of a Stephen King book you're not going to buy a Dane Cook novel. It's the same with Forza3, Shift, Dirt2, etc. If people are already playing and enjoying those games they won't feel the need to run out and get GT5. Of course this is just how I see it.

4. Halo Reach has new characters, a new story, new gameplay, etc. It offers a completely new experience just like a movie sequal or a book sequel. Racing around a track with realistic physics and beautifull graphics has been done by each GT game, it's like Maddan. They upgrade it, but it's the same game. Fans of Maddan are happy becuase they get more of what they love, but casual sports fans don't care what name is on the box so long as they can play football. Forza 3, Shift, and Dirt 2 have each carved out their piece of the racing sim pie, but at the end of the day they and GT are all driving simulators. GT5 has everything GT4 had plus more, but the real issue is that it isn't doing anything considerably different than Forza 3, Shift, Dirt2, etc. Look back at point three for why I think people enjoying those racers have scratched their racing itch.

In summery. GT5 will sell great, I have no doubt, but it won't sell as well as GT3 or even GT4. The perfect strom Sony had going for themselves with the PS2 and GT3 has blown over and in it's wake is a new world full of beautifull racing sims already on store shelves.