Who believes Wii's successor will have better third party support?

[trestres]

The question is, how powerful will the next Nintendo console be? Enough for 3rd party devs to jump ship, or as powerful as the current HD consoles?

If the next Nintendo console is as powerful as the 360/PS3, then Wii2 will be getting current gen ports, with the huge disadvantage of not having an installed base, which will inevitably mean terrible SW sales. Now, if the Wii2 has also some sort of totally new innovative gameplay, as well as a good online service, then devs might start developing games for it by simply porting the engines and then utilizing the innovating capabilities.

In other words, Wii2 must be really innovative, and at the same time very powerful, enough for 3rd parties to be able to port the frameworks and engines and develop for all 3 consoles simultaneously. Even then, developers will probably not see the Wii2 as a console suited for mature and core games, therefore it could presumably be that they won't porting all games to it, and 360/PS3 would be a better choice, considering their huge installed bases. Nintendo will have to build a new base, while PS3 and 360 will be still getting a lot of support. Wii proved this gen that being innovative and cheap wasn't enough for 3rd parties to take it seriously.

So Wii2 should be EXTREMELY powerful for 3rd parties to consider it a next-gen starter, right? But Nintendo is totally against getting their consoles on the market for more than 250$, in which case a really powerful machine won't even qualify, we would be talking about 500$ or more and not knowing if it that is even profitable for them.

I think they are in a very tough position when it comes to gathering 3rd party support. 3rd party support ensures and enables a long lifespan for a console (PS1, PS2 and now the HD consoles) so unless Nintendo can carry their next console by their own for a very extended period (remember they will have 2 - 4 consoles to support simultaneously), I don't think they will be able to make Wii2 last any longer than all their previous home consoles. There's some serious considerations to be made, and for me it all boils down to how innovative and powerful their next console is. Third parties are content with ther current HD consoles installed bases, so I don't see them shifting resources away UNLESS something really drastic happens.