What's Nintendo working on? Even more Wii and 3DS games.

[trestres]

TheSource said:

What are your thoughts on how long Wii and DS (and WW/DSiWare) will be supported by Nintendo? When I look at Wikipedia, NES was still getting games semi-regularly through 1992, and Wario Woods from Nintendo came out in 1994.

We seem to be getting modest to major DS projects through at least 2011, so I can't imagine Wii projects will dry up before 2013 or so.

It seems to be that as long as there is a 15m ish sw market Nintendo will keep putting projects on its systems.

GC - 2001 - 2006 as 15m games shipped per year

N64 - 1996 - 2001 as 15m games shipped per year

SNES* - 1991 - 1997 as 15m games shipped per year

NES* - 1986 - 1993 (estimated) as 15m games shipped per year

* - Release in 1990 in Japan, and 1983 in Japan, but probably not a 15m market until years listed above.

 

By calendar year for Wii / DS we have the following so far, and it doesn't look like there will be a super rapid decline for sw.

           2004          2005             2006           2007               2008          2009          2010E     2011E         

Wii      Not released yet        17.5m          95.7m          199m           197.5m      195m      173m       

DS      5m            41.4m          107.8m        176.6m        202.5m       154.9m     129m?      96m?

I'm thinking we'll see SW from Nintendo on Wii / DS for as late as 2015 / 2014 respectively.

 

 

I think that if Wii's successor is coming out in 2011, which is probable, Nintendo may support the Wii until 2013, but not further. DS could get some sporadic support during 2012 as well, if GBA is anything to go by.