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Grey Acumen said:
1,000,000+

One thing that people are forgetting is the different mindset of SSBB compared to SMG. SMG is a single player game, if you don't get it right away, you just pick it up a week or so later, nothing lost. It's not like you're really going to care if one of your friends has already collected 100% of the star bits while you still haven't gotten the game.
Smash Bros Melee has a HIGH level of competition, and that's just competing against friends and people that you're sitting right next to. Now you have Brawl that promises to bring that back and then add online multiplayer on top of that. People will be trying to get that as soon as they possibly can to make sure that they have time to learn the system and train up so they don't get pwned in online multiplayer.

The popularity of the game, combined with its competitive nature is going to push sales of this game through the roof.

That line of thinking is for North America and Europe only.

Japan's videogame market is highly casual and don't buy traditional games as quickly anymore.

Mario Galaxy sold 300k first week in Japan, and only after 4 weeks reached 400k. In the US, it sold over a million in half that time.

Brawl will sell a ton, but not as much in Japan.



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Bet with disolitude: Left4Dead will have a higher Metacritic rating than Project Origin, 3 months after the second game's release.  (hasn't been 3 months but it looks like I won :-p )