Gran Turismo 5, the first 20 million selling GT... maybe.

[nordlead]

I'm sure GT5 will do bigger 1st week numbers, and I'm 100% positive about that. The Wii hasn't had very many huge launches. Heck, even Halo 3 had bigger 1st week sales, but it couldn't keep up with the legs of Mario Kart Wii.

Take a look at this graph - http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Halo+3+-+X360&reg2=All&game2=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=84&weekly=1

In the first 10 weeks, Halo 3 sold over 1/2 of it's total sales (to date), while Mario Kart Wii was only 300k behind, but only managed to sell 3/10ths of it's total sales. Top top it off, Mario Kart had a huge boost over the 2nd Christmas season and will likely see another large one over the 3rd. GT3 was also incredibly front loaded on PS2 in Japan managing to sell ~80% of the total sales in the first 10 weeks. I would expect the legs to be a lot longer in Europe and NA though, but not nearly as long as MKWii. I don't expect GT5 to have Mario Kart type legs, but it should be able to pull much bigger numbers in the first few weeks. Obviously, how Mario Kart Wii sold has no bearing on how GT5 will sell, but saying that GT5 will reach Mario Kart Wii status on a much smaller userbase would just be beyond incredible.

As for piracy, pirates claim they wouldn't have bought the game anyways, so why would they buy GT5? Most people who pirated in the past may not even have bought a PS3. Obviously we can't know how many would purchase it, so that is all up to gestimation.