Avinash_Tyagi said:
Carl2291 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Carl2291 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
As a well known Wii fanboy I believe I can be objective in this:
the gap according to VGC is 7.387 million currently
Even if the the PS3 continues to average 84K greater sales a week than the 360 (the sales gap last week), it would take approximately 88 weeks for the PS3 to pass the 360 WW |
So a year and half, not taking into consideration Christmas boost and SW boosts?
Sounds very possible when you put it that way.
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No I factored in Christmas boosts and the such, because PS3 is unlikely to maintain its sales lead throughout the next year and a half, in fact I fully expect many weeks, even months, next year where 360 retakes the lead, so I estimated, that even taking into account holiday boosts and software releases, the best PS3 can hope for is averaging a sales lead around what it has now
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I see.
How the hell did you factor in all the Christmas boosts and SW boosts without knowing what will be sold?
And your estimations for many weeks and months next year are 99% likely to be way, way off.
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Of course, this is a very rough estimate, however a few things are pretty likely, first that PS3 sales are likely to peak this holiday, and then drop off in the next year, with a boost for a time around the GT5 release, 360 is likely to price drop next spring and possibly next fall, Sony may have one price drop next fall, but with a weaker overall lineup next holiday, while the 360 will likely have a stronger one, the Wand and Natal are likely not to have a big effect on the market, and likely not to be successes. So I felt my estimate was very generous to the PS3.
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So basicly you guessed everything. From boosts, what they will do at Christmas, random pricecuts...
No offence, but taking into consideration your prediction history, and the randomness of the figures you will have used, i really can't see that happening.
