No October conference in America, no more surprises

[trestres]

@Smaschu: The problem is that Wii is supposed to sell the same amount of consoles it sold last FY, but it's 4 million down, and I just don't see how those 2 games would be able to manage that feat. Besides Wii is still selling in between 120k-150k less each week, so the gap could reach 4.5 million by October.

The problem is that I can't see Wii Fit+ having any considerable effect at all. The game is barely an expansion, it's not really a new game or a new experience. Most of the people who were planning on buying a Wii for Wii Fit have had more than a year and a half to buy it. This is not a brand new game like Wii Vitality will be, this is an expansion that will obviously sell greatly on its own, but that it will not manage to move HW at levels that would be considered successful.

I know the game could end up selling 10 million by next FY, but how many of those units will actually be balance board bundled? Not many, since the balance board price is now going up 10 dollars, so it will be more expensive for people now to buy and sales could be hindered. The Wii Fit craze has already passed its peak, we are now seeing slowing sales and honestly the expansion will be bought mostly by Wii Fit owners since its 20 bucks alone.

Best case scenario I see is WF+ slwoing the decline or barely raising weekly sales, but not enough to even position the Wii at the same weekly levels it had last year.

So if Wii is down 5 million YoY when November arrives, that would mean that it will have to sell about 575k more units than it did last year each week until January. And it will all fall on NSMBWii's hands to push that crazy amount of hardware, and that's not possible. Even then, Wii would need to sell the same in Q1 2010, which is on its own a very tough thing to do because Wii sold at record levels in Q1 2009 (Mainly because it was supply constrained in the Holidays and many people ended up buying a Wii during this period).

All in all, not really feasable with what they have available for the Holidays, so that's why I expect them to announce something soon.