Should Nintendo cut the price of Wii?

[trestres]

Disagree. Demand isn't as high as it used to be and that's a fact. Being supply constrained people were obligued to line up and get a Wii as soon as they could last year. Now it's different, as Wii's are in abundant supply. You won't see those gigantic sales anymore simply because anyone can buy a buy as soon as they want.

Then last year AC:CF and Wii Music weren't even important titles, the true movers were Wii Fit and MKWii like you said. Wii would have sold the same had they launched or not. Now this year, I think you are expecting too much from WSR and Wii Fit+. I already explained the part about Wii Fit+ and we disagree completely, as I don't think a 2 year old piece of SW will be able to move hardware like that. WSR hasn't had the expected effect so far, but according to Iwata it will begin moving HW 6 weeks after launch... They are expecting it to happen, not saying it will and those are 2 different things. Also, you are expecting NSMBWii to move several million Wii's on its own, and that's where I disagree the most. The Mario fanbase is already very big, it's not like this is the first Mario available or anything similar.

The sales then won't reflect what you expect to happen, simply because demand isn't there anymore as it used to be. I would make a bet about it if you like, but Wii won't sell 13.5 million units that quarter, because it's impossible. That would mean more than 1 million weekly since the start of October and you realize that's impossible, considering it's selling about 800k on average every month.

Then there's the fact that this year more than ever, Wii will be competing against 2 price cuts (if the 360 one is to be believed) and it will not have as many 3rd party hits as the other consoles.

I can't see Wii having a better Holiday when it's in a negative trend, it doesn't have as many hits as the other platforms and both their competitors are getting pricecuts and redesigns.

I also think 4 million isn't going to happen this quarter, because so far only 1.4 million were sold and we are almost halfway in the quarter. You are forgetting these figures are inflated because of the launch of MH3 in Japan and WSR in the West. Those peaks already wore away and instead of that 350k weekly figure we are back to 250k or so, and only because it's Obon in Japan as the Wii doesn't have anything else noteworthy until October there.

For the 4th quarter you are alos looking at things wrong... Wii sold so well in Q4 FY 09 because it was totally supply constrained during the Holidays, therefore many people ended up buying the console a month or two after the Holiday Season ended. This year Wii is in supply and there will be NO shortages this Holiday. Unless they have something big planned for Q1 2010, I don't see them shipping more than 4 million.

That's it, I guess.