Microsoft wouldn't cut the 360 price to $150. That reeks of desparation, and would be a last resort. They have to think about profit, as well- Arcade is already the most popular SKU, and cutting price is cutting income, which is cutting profits. Microsoft probably profits more on a $300 Pro than a $200 Arcade. They would prefer that people bought the Pro. So they would have to cut the Pro to $250 as well, which would lose even MORE profit. So their choices are:
1) $150 Arcade, $250 Pro, $300 Elite. Like I've said, this isn't very logical.
2) $179 Arcade, $250 Pro, $300 Elite. Like the last one, but more likely.
3) $200 Arcade, $300 Elite (essentially changing the Pro to the Elite and cutting the Elite)
I believe the current Ars Technica rumour suggests 3)
Nintendo DEFINITELY isn't going to cut the price of the Wii- it sells gangbusters already. It's been above the PS3 and 360 combined for the last few weeks, and the last time one of the HD consoles outsold it in a week was back in June 2008, when MGS4 launched. It only really needs a boost in Japan, and upcoming games + new colours will do that.
I only think Sony will cut the PS3's price this year because of their forecast. They wouldn't increase YoY sales by 30% for no reason when they can see that they are clearly down YoY at the moment. Sony are not idiots- they got their last prediction spot on (10 million in FY 08). $300 is probably most likely, with some feature or other taken out (I would say Bluetooth and WLAN are two likely candidates- separate adaptors could be made available), with an 80GB HDD, and the current 160GB would be cut to $400 (still bundled with a game, with all features intact)
And they'll probably make PS2 emulation possible via a FW update, so people will stop complaining about that.
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