PS3 has no game to counter Halo ODST this year...

[Kantor]

DirtyP2002 said:

Kantor said:

DirtyP2002 said:

Kantor said:
Okay, even assuming that GT5 doesn't make this holiday season:

Halo 3 ODST: 6 million
(Maybe) Alan Wake: 2.5 million

Total: 8.5 million

vs.

MAG: 3.5 million
Uncharted 2: 3 million
A Crack In Time: 2 million
inFamous: 1.5 million
Heavy Rain: 700k

White Knight Chronicles: ???
Demon's Souls: ???

Total: 10.7 million + ??? x 2.

 

Here are some things that are just wrong with your post:

1. MAG won't sell 3.5 million. I mean, that is just 750k less than CoD4 and almost on MGS4 level. No chance in hell.
2. All other PS3 games predictions are very optimistic. Uncharted 2 should sell 3 millions? Don't think so. Uncharted was heavily bundled and it made it to 2.33 million. This reminds me of Resistance and Resistance 2 or Motorstorm and Motorstorm Pacific Rift.
3. The Xbox360 will have more than 2 games this holiday season.

1) You can't know that. It has 256 player online, it's an FPS, it will likely be heavily advertised, and Killzone 2 is going to make that, so I don't see why MAG can't.

2) Uncharted was not heavily bundled. Bundling began a year after it released. And Uncharted released on a rather pathetic userbase, had a broken street date so the launch was messed up, and was a new IP. Resistance 2 could still outsell Resistance (it's still tracking above) given the time, and MotorStorm was one of two decent games available on the PS3 for a good nine months, while Pacific Rift released amongst far superior games. And how do you know that Uncharted 2 won't be bundled?

3) I'm sure it will. I'm just pointing out that Halo ODST could not sell as much as all of those titles combined, even with the help of Alan Wake. On a side note, those are the only two 360 holiday 2009 exclusives I have heard of. Assuming that Mass Effect 2 and Splinter Cell: Conviction are 2010 titles (though the last one might make 2009, it won't sell 2.2 million to even the scales). I would be shocked if PS3 software beat 360 software for holiday 2009, I'm just pointing out that thinking Halo ODST can stand up to an entire console lineup is ridiculous.

 

1. Why are you not even trying to think? You say, Killzone² is going to make it to 3.5 million. Okay, that is 2.04 million to go. Right now, it sells 30k per week. Do the math: 2,040,000 / 30,000 = 68 weeks. Of course sales will decrease. It won't keep on selling on this level. But anyway, Killzone² would cross 3.5 million early September 2010.
   Let's be hones, Killzone² has no chance to do that. A new IP just for online-gaming has no chance. I bet Left 4 Dead will sell more than MAG.
2. Uncharted was heavily bundled in Europe for a very long time. Resistance 2 is at 10k per week. To catch up to Resistance it needs to sell 2.01 million copies. Do the math: 2,010,000 / 10,000 = 201 weeks. So we can expect Resistance 2 to catch up to Resistance around May 2013! Of course R² sales have to stay the steady for the coming 4 years and Resistance 1 does not sell one single copy from now on.
3. I never said that Halo ODST will stand the entire PS3 LineUp. I am saying the PS3 has no game that could reach the sales Halo ODST will have this year. We can talk about the lineups after E3 is done.

1) Sales will decrease over time, yes. But holiday seasons always provide boosts, so it's not as simple as that. Maybe not by September 2010, but by the time it stops selling, it will be at 4 million. And you mention a new IP just-for-online gaming, isn't that essentially what Left 4 Dead is? How atrociously did that sell? Well over 2 million sales by now. And L4D will breeze past 3 million. Deserves every sale, too.

2) Again, you have to look at holiday seasons. Although I didn't know R2's legs were that atrocious, look at this graph:

http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Resistance+2+-+PS3&reg2=All&game2=Resistance%3A+Fall+of+Man+-+PS3&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=100

It's tracking above, so even if it doesn't sell Fall of Man levels, it will still cross 3 million. And I can't say it deserves even that much. As for Uncharted, you know the bundle is optional, right? Uncharted 2 could well be bundled, and as I said, it will release on a larger userbase, with no broken street date.

3) Certainly, no PS3 game (barring GT5) can outsell Halo ODST, but you said it as if you thought Halo ODST could single handedly outsell every single PS3 exclusive, like Gears of War 2 did last year. And people didn't realise it back then, but the 360 actually had a better holiday 2008 lineup than the PS3...there, I said it. LBP may have been brilliant, but Resistance 2 was just good, and SOCOM was a buggy mess. In contrast, Gears 2 and Fable II were both excellent, and Banjo was reasonably decent, too.