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Running the math for Japan, I get 400,000 to 500,000 Wiis as the likely figure for the quarter given that we don't know when Wii Sports Resort will launch exactly in June. For Japan, there were 648k Wiis sold in Q2 2008 (MK Wii), and 883k Wiis in Q2 2007 (Super Paper Mario). A ~200k drop from the previous quarter seems fairly reasonable to me given the low sales and occasional spikes (WSR, GW) that will punctuate the quarter. Punch Out/ EA Sports Active in May, and a new Guitar Hero/Conduit/Tiger Woods/Motion + in June should keep sales in the Americas at maybe ~650k-750k April (down Y.O.Y), ~850k-1000k May (up Y.O.Y despite Wii Fit) and ~750k-850k (up Y.O.Y. but 'only' 150k/week). I'm not sure how Others will react, although it will probably be flattish but Japan and the Americas should reach 2.75m-3.15m Wiis in Q2, which combined with a stronger Q1 means Wii will continue to be up year over year through June.

Week Sales Ja Game/Event
4-Apr 16,500      Nada
11-Apr 17,500       Muramasa
18-Apr 20,000       Deca Sporta 2
25-Apr 32,000       MHG/MH3 Demo
2-May 48,000        GW
9-May 52,000        GW
16-May 30,000        GW Drop
23-May 27,000        Takt of Magic
30-May 22,000 
       Nada
7-Jun 60,000        WSR
14-Jun 45,000        Nada
21-Jun 42,000        Nada
28-Jun    38,000  
        Nada


People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu