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We cannot just the year based on hearsay. After E3 when the main brands alongside developers tell us what we can expect from each console, we'll have a good idea of where we can push numbers. Right now it's up in the air where the 360 still holds a solid eight million console lead. What we can say now is that if Sony doesn't drop its price soon, then you can bet  there will be a huge problem where the 360 might pull ahead to a ten million console lead. To say that the eight million lead will fall back to five million from last years 1st quarter lead is not impossible, but with the information we have, quite bold.