Are people overreacting to the Wii's sales in Japan?

[trestres]

scottie said:

There're a lot of threads floating around at the moment asking question like

 

Time to lower the price of the Wii in Japan?

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=63156&page=2

 

Yakuza 3/Killzone 2 the beginning of Sony's global reign.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=62985

 

Well I am starting this thread too talk about why I believe the Wii will do very well in Japan in upcoming months.

 

Obviously, the sales for the week ending the 8th will be very PS360 heavy due to RE:5, I'm refering to weeks after this.

 

Looking through the Japanese releases, and only considering games that will appeal to the Japanese, ignoring games that wont have much impact and ignoring the portables

 

March 9th - End of March

Wii - Wiimake of Pikmin 2  60k +/- First week

Wii - Sonic and the Black Knight Less than 10k first week

Wii - Phantom Brave (RPG, port of a PS2 game)  25 - 30k first week?

Ps3's biggest game is probably Musou Orochi Z, which I imagine will sell very few units 100k+ first week

360's only release is Quantum of Solace 1k first week?

Add Suzumiya Haruhi for the Wii

 

April

Heavy competition with the PC game Brett :P

PS3 has Killzone - but I doubt that will sell much in Japan Also has the FFVII:ACC + FFXIII Demo Bundle will sellout

Wii has Monster Hunter port  Really don't know what to expect, but could sell decent due to MH3 Demo

Wii has Muramasa  Odin Sphere was a niche game

Add Deca Sports 2 for the Wii

 

May

Wii has Kizuna  Could go either way, but after the sales of Rune Factory Frontier and Fragile I have to wonder. This seems better though

Wii has PES soccer (winning eleven) which is huge, but it's a late port    Sales will be minimum, too late since the next PES is around the corner

360 has Mass Effect and a baseball game  Dinasty Warrior 5 Empires

PS3 has no release scheduled  Dinasty Warriors 5 Empires is a big game (DW5 sold more than 400k in Japan on the PS3)

 

June

Only scheduled release is Arc Rise Fantasia for the Wii  Could go either way, but will definitely sell more than 100k

 

July

Metal gear Online for the PS3  1k LTD? Add King of Fighters XII and BlazBlue to both PS3 and 360

No Wii or 360 releases yet

 

Rest of Year

No releases announced (with a specific date)

 

And then Nintendo is also releasing Sin and Punishment, Punch Out, Endless Ocean 2, Wii Sports Resort, Metroid Prime 2 Wiimake and a few others. You chose the wrong ones. Wii has WSR, DQX, Tales of Ten, Vallalha Knights, Little Kings Story, Samurai Warriors 3, MH3, FFCC:TCB... though they aren't coming anytime soon. (MH3 is coming before October, but what does the Wii have until then?)

PS3 has GT5, FFXIII, FFvsXIII, The Last Remnant, God of War 3, Tekken 6, Dead Rising 2, Bayonetta

 

If anyone still believes that the Wii will have a bad year in 2009, give some reasoning for it. No one says the Wii will have a bad year. Just bad in comparison to the previous 2 years, since for the first half it will be selling really bad in comparison. 2nd half may be different, but with Nintendo not announcing anything big besides WSR and with most of the third party big games not out this year, it's reasonable to expect decreasing sales and people getting worried. Nintendo doesn't seem to care in JAPAN. It's nowhere else, though it could be happening.