Will PS3 beat 360 in WW sales for 2008?

[goddog]

misterd said:

Goddbless said:

Hyruken said:
The thing is though going through this thread people are assuming soon as we hit jan 1st 2009 the PS3 will start to instantly sell more. If we stay at say the 360 selling 100k a week more (i know it is higher im just saying it wont be 200k+ a week in January/Febuary/March) would mean at bare minimum 4 months before the PS3 price cut. So if things are at 100k a week that could mean by the time the PS3 price cut gets here the 360 could of made a 2009 lead of 1.6m units ahead of the PS3 already. This is the key thing people are forgetting. If the price cut is really coming in those who were going to buy a PS3 will hold off which means the PS3 numbers in those months prior to the cut will be even lower. There is a high chance the 360 could be 8.5m units away from the PS3 by the end of march. If that does happen the 360 won't need to do a price cut because it will take the PS3 a year at least to just take back the 1.6m it sold in the previous 4 months to the cut.

Someone sees the logic. Also you have to wonder if the price cut will bring the PS3 above the 360 or just to parity. If it sells even with the 360 then it's game over for Sony because they will never catch up.

 

Yep. Even at an advantage of 6million it would likely take the PS3 2 years, at least, to catch up. Once it hits 8 million, that almost certainly adds a third or fourth year to the formula. Does anyone think we'll still be talking about the 360 vs PS3 come 2011?

 

 

yeah I do 2012 at earliest for a next gen.

 

ive said this many times if any of them release before 2012 there will be backlash that would most likely lead to a crash this will not only come from the general buying public, but devs, whos asset libraries will be devalued. it would not be good for the industry right now.

we are in actually a pretty good place for all three with software sales being what they are sometime next year all three should put up proffits and continue to do so till the end of the generation. sony will be the last to post profits form its game division, and depending on how many units they move form now until the cut (march earliest), software could even offset a small loss per console basis.

other things that work against the launch are the "recession" that we are told we are in. the much more real slide of the euro and most world monies against the yen (the dollar has held steady but was already weak against it).

on top of that there currently on going major revisions in board and ram design the like of which havent been seen since the mid 90s, this shift should be more defined by 2012 with techs less risky. it also gives time for ISPs to be upgraded and allow for smoother download of full games which is something devs want to kill the resale market (though rental of the game from a download is most likely a devs wet dream rentals on music and games make fortunes)

honestly the only one that could benifit from ending early is nintendo, since they have traditionaly made a profit out of the gate, making people upgrade would just be more cash for them, but killing a cash cow (the wii) is always dangerous