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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Amazon US October monthly bestsellers and general Amazon based discussion

Another monthly update:

#20 PS4 Nathan Drake Bundle (down 1)
#25 XB1 Limited Edition Halo Bundle (no movement)
#26 PS4 Limited Edition Star Wars Bundle (up 1)*
#42 PS4 Limited Edition Black Ops Bundle (up 2)*
#45 PS4 TLOUR Bundle (down 2)
#57 PS4 Limited Edition Destiny Bundle (down 3)
#80 XB1 Gears Bundle (up 4)
#90 PS4 Star Wars bundle (up 7)*

*Doesn't count towards October NPD



Shadow1980 said:
DonFerrari said:
Shadow1980 said:

It's definitely going to be the most interesting NPD we've had in a while. Halo vs. price cut.


But will be stomped by November and BF on NPD... because pricecut always give a bigger boost than game release, and since PS4 was ahead before pricecut there is no reason for inversion this month... next month depends on BF discounts MS decides to do.

Oh, most definitely. Software almost never gives a boost longer than one month (the only exceptions I can think of are Smash and Mario Kart for the Wii back in 2008; FFVII for the PS1 back in 1997 probably counts, too). But like I said earlier, price cuts can and often do boost sales for months on end. The PS2's first price cut boosted sales by at least 40% for about a year. The PS3's first price cut gave an even bigger boost percentage-wise (though granted it was at a higher price point and it had really bad sales prior to that first $400 SKU). This is the first time a PlayStation system got only a $50 drop for its first price cut so the effects might not be as dramatic, but is should provide a solid boost to sales at least until next October, and by that point Sony may be ready to drop the PS4 to $300, which would be consistent with historical norms. The PS1, PS2, Xbox, GC, and 360 (and maybe also the SNES and Genesis, though I lack exact dates for their price cuts) all had their second price cuts about a year after the first; the Wii only had one price cut in its prime while the PS3 had a 22-month gap between the drop to $400 and the drop to $300 (which was when the Slim was introduced) and the N64 had a 17-month gap between its first and second price cuts.

While the XBO will probably have a very good October showing, I still think we're a ways off from seeing it really hit its stride. Both the original Xbox and the 360 has a noticeable growth problem, taking multiple price cuts to get any decent growth to annual sales, and the XBO looks like it might follow suit. Even after a reduction from $500 to $350 after Kinect being unbundled and the core system getting a $50 price cut, it's still lagging behing the PS4. Even with Halo it's looking to be a close month. But I have a feeling that we'll see a $300 XBO Slim released in summer or fall next year, and if so the following year or so will probably be the XBO's best months sales-wise. By that point it'll probably have no hope of catching up to the PS4 in the U.S., but it should amass pretty good sales in its best market.

And with that, I think we should take any future November discussion to the November thread. I think all I have to do here is wait for the final Week 4 numbers to come in and post those.


You are 100% right... but since X360 had one of the most incredible YOY consecutive growth for so many years (although if it had bigger growths or initial base it would have been monstruous), who knows, maybe X1 will be able to get YOU growth for 5 years.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Shadow1980 said:
Farsala said:

I think the effects of a $50 price cut has been undervalued. PS3 had a $100 price cut and then went from 52k a week to almost 100k a week.  Halo ODST helped 360 from 53k a week to 70k, a mainline Halo should make that 80k-90k imo. The Wii had a $50 price cut at the very end of September, going from 70k to 92k to 125k. It is definitely hard to predict with the PS4 though.

It is indeed hard to predict with the PS4, because the only system that launched at $300 or above and only got a $50 drop for its first price cut was the 360. It's our only reference point, and it's not a very good one as Xbox systems have historically exhibited very slow growth in their early years, taking multiple price cuts to attain peak sales. Meanwhile, PlayStation systems have exhibited more pronounced growth from price cuts. This is a 12.5% reduction for the PS4, which is less than the 20% reduction the PS3 got in late 2007 (the price of the cheapest SKU dropped from $500 to $400). However, the PS3 got a bigger boost proportionally from that 20% reduction than the PS2 got from its first price cut, which was a 33% reduction. In the U.S., the PS3's sales in Q1-Q3 '08 were up 92% YoY from the same period in 2007, a boost driven mainly by the reduction to $400, with May 2008 also geting a big assist from MGS4 (the PS3 was down YoY in November & December 2008, which damped its overall YoY growth, so the price cut's effects lasted only 11 months). Meanwhile, the PS4's first price cut, which dropped it from $300 to $200, boosted sales by about 42.7% from May 2002 to March 2003 over the May '01-Mar. '02 period.

With the PS4 getting only a $50 price cut, there's no telling what kind of boost it will get. I think it will drive a very noticeable increase in overall YoY sales for at least the next 10-12 months. I doubt it'll be a PS3-level boost, as it's worth noting that the PS3 was doing very bad at $500. We shouldn't expect anything bigger than a PS2-level boost, if that. But will it be 20%? 30%? 40%? Who knows? But I do think that the PS4 will be reduced to $300 by November of next year.


"PS2's first price cut dropped it from $300 to $200"

 

Not PS4 :)



Another monthly update:

#19 PS4 Nathan Drake Bundle (up 1)
#25 XB1 Limited Edition Halo Bundle (no movement)
#26 PS4 Limited Edition Star Wars Bundle (no movement)*
#39 PS4 Limited Edition Black Ops Bundle (up 3)*
#49 PS4 TLOUR Bundle (down 4)
#59 PS4 Limited Edition Destiny Bundle (down 2)
#77 XB1 Gears Bundle (up 3)
#89 PS4 Star Wars bundle (up 1)*

*Doesn't count towards October NPD



poklane said:

Another monthly update:

#19 PS4 Nathan Drake Bundle (up 1)
#25 XB1 Limited Edition Halo Bundle (no movement)
#26 PS4 Limited Edition Star Wars Bundle (no movement)*
#39 PS4 Limited Edition Black Ops Bundle (up 3)*
#49 PS4 TLOUR Bundle (down 4)
#59 PS4 Limited Edition Destiny Bundle (down 2)
#77 XB1 Gears Bundle (up 3)
#89 PS4 Star Wars bundle (up 1)*

*Doesn't count towards October NPD

So now is for closure and certain kill



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

poklane said:

Another monthly update:

#19 PS4 Nathan Drake Bundle (up 1)
#25 XB1 Limited Edition Halo Bundle (no movement)
#26 PS4 Limited Edition Star Wars Bundle (no movement)*
#39 PS4 Limited Edition Black Ops Bundle (up 3)*
#49 PS4 TLOUR Bundle (down 4)
#59 PS4 Limited Edition Destiny Bundle (down 2)
#77 XB1 Gears Bundle (up 3)
#89 PS4 Star Wars bundle (up 1)*

*Doesn't count towards October NPD

That is right on the edge of where I think the Halo 5 pre-orders will make up the difference. I said if the gap is less than 5 places the win condition favours Xb one, if it's more than 5 places the win condition favours PS4. To me it's dangerous to confidently assert one or other as the NPD winner. 55%/45%  in favour of PS4 I reckon. If Xb one wins as narrowly as what Amazon implies a Xb one win would be then you would have to say that Halo has largely faile dto have the hardware shifting effect that would have been expected just a few months ago.

Also even though Halo 5 released on 27 Oct, the bundle was available from 20 October, so the hardware effect had 11 days to influence October NPD, not just 4 days.. 



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Halo 5 PR:
"One week after launching worldwide, Halo 5: Guardians has made history as the biggest Halo launch and fastest-selling Xbox One exclusive game to-date, with more than $400 million in global sales of Halo 5: Guardians games and hardware"

Full PR: http://news.xbox.com/2015/11/04/halo-5-guardians-biggest-halo-launch-in-history/?linkId=18493755

Another classic Microsoft spin, including the revenue from the $500 Limited Edition bundle. Even at "just" 100k LE bundles WW at an average of $500 that would be $50million of that $400million



poklane said:

Halo 5 PR:
"One week after launching worldwide, Halo 5: Guardians has made history as the biggest Halo launch and fastest-selling Xbox One exclusive game to-date, with more than $400 million in global sales of Halo 5: Guardians games and hardware"

Full PR: http://news.xbox.com/2015/11/04/halo-5-guardians-biggest-halo-launch-in-history/?linkId=18493755

Another classic Microsoft spin, including the revenue from the $500 Limited Edition bundle.


Impossible to say anything about the game's sales from that info, which is sort of a bummer.



poklane said:

Halo 5 PR:
"One week after launching worldwide, Halo 5: Guardians has made history as the biggest Halo launch and fastest-selling Xbox One exclusive game to-date, with more than $400 million in global sales of Halo 5: Guardians games and hardware"

Full PR: http://news.xbox.com/2015/11/04/halo-5-guardians-biggest-halo-launch-in-history/?linkId=18493755

Another classic Microsoft spin, including the revenue from the $500 Limited Edition bundle. Even at "just" 100k LE bundles WW at an average of $500 that would be $50million of that $400million


Lmao did they really say "hardware" too. I just cannot get enough of their spinning lol



By the way is a controller also considered as "hardware"??