Shadow1980 said:
It is indeed hard to predict with the PS4, because the only system that launched at $300 or above and only got a $50 drop for its first price cut was the 360. It's our only reference point, and it's not a very good one as Xbox systems have historically exhibited very slow growth in their early years, taking multiple price cuts to attain peak sales. Meanwhile, PlayStation systems have exhibited more pronounced growth from price cuts. This is a 12.5% reduction for the PS4, which is less than the 20% reduction the PS3 got in late 2007 (the price of the cheapest SKU dropped from $500 to $400). However, the PS3 got a bigger boost proportionally from that 20% reduction than the PS2 got from its first price cut, which was a 33% reduction. In the U.S., the PS3's sales in Q1-Q3 '08 were up 92% YoY from the same period in 2007, a boost driven mainly by the reduction to $400, with May 2008 also geting a big assist from MGS4 (the PS3 was down YoY in November & December 2008, which damped its overall YoY growth, so the price cut's effects lasted only 11 months). Meanwhile, the PS4's first price cut, which dropped it from $300 to $200, boosted sales by about 42.7% from May 2002 to March 2003 over the May '01-Mar. '02 period. With the PS4 getting only a $50 price cut, there's no telling what kind of boost it will get. I think it will drive a very noticeable increase in overall YoY sales for at least the next 10-12 months. I doubt it'll be a PS3-level boost, as it's worth noting that the PS3 was doing very bad at $500. We shouldn't expect anything bigger than a PS2-level boost, if that. But will it be 20%? 30%? 40%? Who knows? But I do think that the PS4 will be reduced to $300 by November of next year. |
"PS2's first price cut dropped it from $300 to $200"
Not PS4 :)
