By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - February 2013 NPD Thread - 360:302k, PS3:~270k, 3DS:~191k, Wii:~100k, Wii U:66k, PSV:38k

AnthonyW86 on 15 March 2013

So the industry is in much better shape then VGC made it out to be...



BenVTrigger on 15 March 2013
GreyianStorm said:
BenVTrigger said:
I'll also add I've been noticing PS3 slowly gaining on 360 for a while now and have been wondering if PS3 will actually beat 360 on a NPD report in 1
It will I'm almost sure of it unless 360 gets a huge price cut. Like a 100 dollar price cut


Out of interest (if you can say), would you be seeing something similar in Gamestop too (a gradual decline in the ratio of sales between the PS3 and Xbox 360), if you're basing this statement on the recent NPD reports? Or are you saying that, just within Gamestop, you've been seeing a similar trend?

Im basing this off of trends Ive been seeing at work.  I just never said anything in case things were very different with other major retailers.  NPD makes it appear though its with all retailers in NA



binary solo on 15 March 2013

Crap! I think this is the most inaccurate VGC vs. NPD I've ever seen: everything undertracked and all of them by a "need to adjust" amount. And it's the biggest proportionality difference between PS3 and 360 I can recall.

The US data sources being used obviously didn't reasonably represent the US market. Question is whether the non-representative sampling is merely a blip or a there's now an underlying sampling error bias.

Over the years I've been of the opinion that in aggregate VGC cf NPD has been within a reasonable margin so this might just be one of those 1% occasions where the sampling does not reasonably reflect the reality (not that NPD is complete reality either as it's merely a much bigger sample, not a total head count).



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

walsufnir on 15 March 2013
AnthonyW86 said:

So the industry is in much better shape then VGC made it out to be...


Thanks for this pic! Was a big laugh



thismeintiel on 15 March 2013
kowenicki said:

Yeah... 2012 was undertracked, add 1m to each of the PS3 and 360.  That helps my prediction quite a bit.

Two problems with that statement.  The 360 isn't undertracked by 1M.  And two, the PS3 is undertracked by more than 1M.

When MS announced they had shipped 76M consoles in mid-Feb, that put 1.7M on shelves.  That's not too outrageous coming off the holidays, but 360 is probably undertracked.  Though, it's only by ~300K-500K AT MAX.  Tetton said he thought that the PS3 was at 77M in late-Feb.  Now, even if we play it safe and say it was actually at 76M, that would put 2.9M on shelves.  WAY TOO HIGH!  Which means the PS3 is undertracked by ~1.4M.



 

thismeintiel on 15 March 2013
ethomaz said:
nightsurge said:
Can I ask where the Wii/3DS estimates are coming from??

Going with the Wii U estimate of 66k, the numbers we have so far are pretty close. There is some rounding issues, but that only equates to 1-2k difference.

If the Wii sold more than 100k though, that would make a difference so I was just curious. Didn't want to look through 12 pages of ethomaz and kowenicki haha.

We have conditions to fit the numbers...

  • 360 = 302k (41% market share current gen consoles)
  • Wii U is 40% up week basis
  • PSV is 30% up week basis
  • Wii < 100k < DS < 150k < 3DS < 200k < PS3 < 300k
  • 3DS -27% Y/Y
  • Wii + Wii U + 3DS + DS = 455k
  • PS3 + PS2 + PSV + PSP = 360 + 7k

Make your maths... 3DS did 262k last year

Fixed.  NPD doesn't track PS2 sales anymore.



 

ninjablade on 15 March 2013

official numbers for ps3 263k, very impressive.



thismeintiel on 15 March 2013
kowenicki said:
thismeintiel said:
kowenicki said:

Yeah... 2012 was undertracked, add 1m to each of the PS3 and 360.  That helps my prediction quite a bit.

Two problems with that statement.  The 360 isn't undertracked by 1M.  And two, the PS3 is undertracked by more than 1M.

When MS announced they had shipped 76M consoles in mid-Feb, that put 1.7M on shelves.  That's not too outrageous coming off the holidays, but 360 is probably undertracked.  Though, it's only by ~300K-500K AT MAX.  Tetton said he thought that the PS3 was at 77M in late-Feb.  Now, even if we play it safe and say it was actually at 76M, that would put 2.9M on shelves.  WAY TOO HIGH!  Which means the PS3 is undertracked by ~1.4M.

Or of course they where just announcing the figure from the last accounts, like they usually do, 75.9m or rounded 76m.   

If that is the case, that would put ~2.3M 360s on shelves at the end of 2012.  Of course, this is at the end of the holidays, so larger numbers are to be expected.  This still equates to the 360 being undertracked by ~300K-500K.  You must also take into account that MS dropped the price on almost all the 360 SKUs during the holidays.  It wouldn't surprise me if retailers bought more stock at the lower price, as well as enough stock in case the price cut boosted sales greatly during the buying rush.  Heck, Amazon still has 3 360 Holiday Bundle SKUs in stock, and it's mid-March.



 

xxbrothawizxx63 on 17 March 2013

What's up with the margin of error this month on hardware? It's ridiculous how off the VGC estimates were. More than 100% margin of error for 3DS, PS3, Wii, DS.....WTF

Incredibly excited to see this month's numbers though for 3DS and Wii U specifically. 3DS should have a killer month with the quality of the software and I'm interested to see whether Wii U numbers can sustain or even rise with LEGO releasing this month. 



S.Peelman on 17 March 2013
the_dengle said:
S.Peelman said:
Dat undertrackage. Everything's a little more decent now thankfully.

Haha. "More decent" is one way to put it.

Can't get too exited .