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Forums - Sales Discussion - GI.biz: TOP Selling Games of 2010 - Halo Reach #1, FFXIII #2, GT5 #10!!

Hahahhaa, @famousringo, Nintendo had 6 of the top 10 for 2009 excluding Wii Sports? That makes this even more hilarious. I guess the ENTIRE INDUSTRY is predicting that Nintendo will be sucked into a black hole before any of their big 2010 games get released? Man, when will they realize the difference between wishing really hard... and reality?



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The Ghost of RubangB said:
Hahahhaa, @famousringo, Nintendo had 6 of the top 10 for 2009 excluding Wii Sports? That makes this even more hilarious. I guess the ENTIRE INDUSTRY is predicting that Nintendo will be sucked into a black hole before any of their big 2010 games get released? Man, when will they realize the difference between wishing really hard... and reality?

Even if Nintendo didn't release any new games this year, they'd still probably nab a good 3-4 spots in the top 10.



That list is so bad that... wow I cant find any words to describe how bad that list is



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jarrod said:
sabby_e17 said:
jarrod said:
sabby_e17 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
nordlead said:
Slimebeast said:
nordlead said:
this list is laughable, but here are my thoughts (world wide lifetime sales, so 2010 and on sales)

* 1. Halo: Reach - could do 10m
* 2. Final Fantasy XIII - Do we count Japanese sales? If So, why isn't NSMBWii on the list it launched in 2009 too Overall western market 3.5m units (6m total with Japan)
* 3. StarCraft II - no comment, but I'm sure this will move a lot
* 4. Call of Duty 7 - 10m combined
* 5. FIFA 11 - 8m combined. (if this is US only, these guys are on some serious drugs)
* 6. BioShock 2 - 3m combined, doesn't really deserve to be on the list.
* 7. Mass Effect 2 - 2-3m doesn't deserve to be on the list
* 8. God of War III - 3m doesn't deserve to be on the list.
* 9. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - what? this isn't a 2010 game. where is NSMBWii, Mario Kart, or Wii Fit?
* 10. Gran Turismo 5 - 8-10m, just don't understand why it is on the bottom.

games missing

Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 7-8m
Zelda Wii - 5m (could easily do more, giving pessimistic prediction), more deserving than those 2-3m games
Wii Vitality ??? (heck, every other peripheral took off, so whatever )
Pokemon Gold/Silver 6m in western markets (pessimistic view due to remake status, also are we counting portables?)

Also, any of the continually selling Wii or DS games could easily bump those 2-3m sellers out of the list if we aren't counting games released before 2010, however Modern Warfare is in the list, so I don't know what to think.

Does FIFA sell so much cos it's on many platforms? (is it on Wii PSP and stuff, along with HD+PS2?)

R u serious about FF13 sales. Only 3,5 mil in the West? I thought the last FF sold like 5 mill in the West, but I may be wrong, i forgot lol. So being the first FF in a very long time, on a new gen, and on two consoles should lift the sales from the last FF.

Unless I made a mistake, I put FFXIII above FFXII sales and picked it as the 4th best selling ever. Seems reasonable to me. 2.5m in Japan, 3.5m in the west. Obviously I could be off, but it is a rough estimate.

But crap, I forgot the X360 version, so... maybe higher? I don't know if being multiplatform will help this title or not.

you are OFF by a bit

FFXIII should sell no less than 7 million at absolute minimum, I expect 9 - 10 million

to make 7 million it will do

2.5 million in japan + 4.5 Million in the west

eventually I expect:

2.5 Million in Japan + 7 Million in the west!!!!!! (thats LTD including all re-releases at the end of this gen)

Prepare to be pleasantly surprised Darth.

COD7, NSMBWii, Wii Sports Resort, FIFA11, Diablo 3, Starcraft 2, Halo Reach, Pokemon HG/SS, Friend Connection (srsly, this is going to be HUGE).  GT5 might outdo a few of them, but then there's other contenders too (Madden11, FFXIII, Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit Plus, etc).

I think GT5 will definitely make top 10, but definitely not top 5.

Fifa 11? And according to VGC, Diablo 2 managed 5.33 million. Do you expect GT5 to sell no more than 6.5 million?

With all the various rereleases and bundle sets, I'd be shocked if D2 isn't over 10m.  I may be overshooting though, the PC market's much weaker today than back then.  On the other hand, D3 is probably going to get a console release too, which could push it.  Switch it out for FFXIII or Wii Fit Plus or something.

I dunno, GT5 coming in at number 10 just wouldn't surprise me at all.  

So what number do you expect GT5 to sell?




Chairman-Mao said:
darthdevidem01 said:

Games expected to be the biggest sellers in 2010

  • 1. Halo: Reach
  • 2. Final Fantasy XIII
  • 3. StarCraft II
  • 4. Call of Duty 7
  • 5. FIFA 11
  • 6. BioShock 2
  • 7. Mass Effect 2
  • 8. God of War III
  • 9. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  • 10. Gran Turismo 5

Pretty decent predictions aside from GT5 being #10. Mine would be

1. Halo Reach - Will easily sell the most. Possibly as much as 7 or 8 million depending on when its released

2. Final Fantasy 13 - It was a tough call between FF13 and GT5. FF13 could do over 6 million on PS3 alone.

3. Gran Turismo 5 - I'm expecting at least 2 million first week (worldwide) and 5.5-6 million in 2010 alone. 

4. Call of Duty Vietnam - Should do like 3-4 million on PS3 and 5+ million on 360. Popular but not as big as MW2.

5. FIFA 11 - Should do like 6 million PS360 combined

6. Bioshock 2 - A bit more then MW2.

7. Modern Warfare 2 - Should do a further 3-4 million on 360 and like 2 million more on PS3. That might be a bit high though.

8. Fallout: New Vegas - Could do 2-2.5m on 360 and maybe 1-1.5m on PS3.

9. God of War 3 - Its big, but not as big as people think. 3 million max for 2010.

10. Mass Effect 2 - The first one barely passed 2 million. I don't see this one doing more then 2 or 2.5m.

Er, you have MW2 in your list, yet you don't have NSMB. Do you think things are going to turn around all of a sudden and MW2 will become the evergreen title?



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Some quick thoughts

1. What is the geographic reach of this survey? UK? EU? West? Worldwide?
2. How many of the GameIndustry.Biz Network's 9900 members were surveyed?
3. Did anyone look to see how well its 2009 predictions were?
4. To completely ignore Nintendo software, after the month of hardware sales it just had, shows the biases of a lot of people in the industry.

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The Ghost of RubangB said:
Hahahhaa, @famousringo, Nintendo had 6 of the top 10 for 2009 excluding Wii Sports? That makes this even more hilarious. I guess the ENTIRE INDUSTRY is predicting that Nintendo will be sucked into a black hole before any of their big 2010 games get released? Man, when will they realize the difference between wishing really hard... and reality?

In some fairness, the list would look very different if PC numbers were available.

But yeah, no one publisher can challenge Nintendo for number of blockbusters. My money is on NSMBWii being the top-selling game of 2010.



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sabby_e17 said:

So what number do you expect GT5 to sell?

Depends on a lot of things (release timeframe, bundle options, etc).  I could see as little as 5m or as much as 8m in 2010.  Not really seeing more or less than that this year though.



Demotruk said:
Chairman-Mao said:
darthdevidem01 said:

Games expected to be the biggest sellers in 2010

  • 1. Halo: Reach
  • 2. Final Fantasy XIII
  • 3. StarCraft II
  • 4. Call of Duty 7
  • 5. FIFA 11
  • 6. BioShock 2
  • 7. Mass Effect 2
  • 8. God of War III
  • 9. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  • 10. Gran Turismo 5

Pretty decent predictions aside from GT5 being #10. Mine would be

1. Halo Reach - Will easily sell the most. Possibly as much as 7 or 8 million depending on when its released

2. Final Fantasy 13 - It was a tough call between FF13 and GT5. FF13 could do over 6 million on PS3 alone.

3. Gran Turismo 5 - I'm expecting at least 2 million first week (worldwide) and 5.5-6 million in 2010 alone. 

4. Call of Duty Vietnam - Should do like 3-4 million on PS3 and 5+ million on 360. Popular but not as big as MW2.

5. FIFA 11 - Should do like 6 million PS360 combined

6. Bioshock 2 - A bit more then MW2.

7. Modern Warfare 2 - Should do a further 3-4 million on 360 and like 2 million more on PS3. That might be a bit high though.

8. Fallout: New Vegas - Could do 2-2.5m on 360 and maybe 1-1.5m on PS3.

9. God of War 3 - Its big, but not as big as people think. 3 million max for 2010.

10. Mass Effect 2 - The first one barely passed 2 million. I don't see this one doing more then 2 or 2.5m.

Er, you have MW2 in your list, yet you don't have NSMB. Do you think things are going to turn around all of a sudden and MW2 will become the evergreen title?

I guess I kind of ignored nintendo altogether there.

Well I'd say NSMBW would be maybe 2nd after Halo Reach. Mario Galaxy 2 be just behind GT5 and Zelda Wii would be somewhere in the top 10.



famousringo said:
Grimes said:

Top Ten Biggest Sellers of 2009

  • 01 Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2
  • 02 Wii Sports Resort
  • 03 Resident Evil 5
  • 04 Halo ODST
  • 05 FIFA 2010
  • 06 The Sims 3
  • 07 Wii Fit
  • 08 Killzone 2
  • 09 StarCraft 2
  • 10 World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King

Just for fun, here's VGC's biggest sellers of '09 (excluding Wii Sports, PC sales and the last week of software in NA and JP, for obvious reasons):

  • 01 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  • 02 Wii Sports Resort
  • 03 New Super Mario Bros. Wii
  • 04 Wii Fit
  • 05 Wii Fit Plus
  • 06 Mario Kart Wii
  • 07 FIFA Soccer 10
  • 08 Wii Play
  • 09 Assassin's Creed 2
  • 10 Resident Evil 5

I love how Wii Fit snagged two consecutive spots.

my favorite thing was that NSMBWii wasn't even known by the industry when they made these predictions. They couldn't have gotten more than the top 2 in a row thanks to that




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