Uhm, I think you need a history lesson. Super Mario 64 sold 11.89 million on N64. Super Mario Sunshine sold 6.68 million on GC. And like you mentioned, Super Mario Galaxy has sold 8.29 million on the Wii (so far). Although NSMB DS has sold well, it was on a handheld console, and I don't know if a fair comparison can be made to home consoles.
It is a new IP, but I don't think that if Sony releases LBP2 it would sell 20 million copies just because it is a sequel.
LBP has Sony as its publisher, which is probably one of the most well known publishers. And I don't know how much pull a developer has, since Rare made Halo and Viva Pinata, and the two are not exactly comparable in sales. Have you ever bought (or not bought) a game because of the publisher / developer?
Assassins Creed was another new IP that was not a FPS and did very well.
If I was to summarize everyone's responses, are these the differences between a 3 million seller and a 20 million seller for a platformer?
-Mario in the game
-No "floaty" jumps
-Sequel (not new IP)
-Console known for genre
-Innovations in gameplay
-Appeal to all regions
- Yes i know that the N64 and NGC and SMG don't have great sales compared to the other mario games actually, i was just mentioning SMG because it is on the same console as it is "squeal" NSMBWii (while i don't like refering to it as a squeal, because the two games play differently)
-But these games (SM64, SMS, SMG and i'll add it here too SMG2) don't have the same appeal as a Mario platformer on a 2D plane like the past games, believe me or not a 3D game is not as accesible as a 2D game, these have a huge appeal to consumers because of it is pretty simple mechanic(you just have to go from left to right), that's why when you check the VC why is SMB3(followed by SMB and SMW ithink?) are more downloaded than SM64? it isn't because it is considered the Best Mario game or it is a classic, because it has a simple mechanic that everyone can follow and it is the best the genre has to offer. (I like SMW the best though!)
Believe me being on a handheld or a console doesn't make a diffrence sales wise (see Mario Kart for example, it is a software monster)
So expect it before it happen: Super Mario Galaxy 2 will NEVER sell as well as NewSMBWii.
- and as for this Publisher thing: No acctually Sony is not a famous publisher, it is a famous hardware company with global brand recognition, but it is not associated with software that much, what games Sony owns that sold in the 10M+ range beside GT?
And i admit the developer part was not as important, actually only the hardcore gamers care about these things...(there is a light gun shooter on WiIWare that looks avarage and has the most generic graphic style out there, but it is developed by a Ninteno studio called Inteligent Systems which is my favorite Nintedo developers ever! so i want to check it out ><)
- Rare didn't make Halo as far as i know O_o
- AC's was a huge success, yes, and i honestly don't know exactly why, Obisoft is a known developer and the game might have gotten a push as ads go( i don't know really), but in the end some games are succesful and some aren't, not everthing on the market will be a succsess story.
If you ask me, i think Sony should have advertised the Sackboys as their new mascot or something, or make the game bundled with the hardware (like Wii Sports, to ensure it gets on the hands of as many people as possible), or the Sackboys are not as appealing as i though they are...
As for your last point, i kinda agree, but not because LBP has floaty jumps O_o