Consumers that would be comparing Wii to Kinect will be looking at the $200 Wii bundle vs the $300 360S bundle with Kinect. Frankly the $300 360 S bundle is a better choice unless you want Nintendo games. If you wanted Nintendo games you have a Wii already.
Consumers that will be looking at the $150 Kinect already have a 360.
Expect the Wii Bundle to be at 149 $ in a few weeks...