Well to be fair the PS2 had pretty crappy games sales if you look at how many console that was actually sold (kinda like the Wii) so Sony hasn't really lost there touch. Look at GoW and SoTC sales for example great games, yet they didn't sell so well. And whatever people might say, Halo and Gears are what we call killer apps: games that sell well and get great reviews. Sony has never been good in that deparment, those games where taken care of by 3rd parties like Rockstars and Konami and most of those games where just timed exclusives.

So a year and half, not taking into consideration Christmas boost and SW boosts?

Sounds very possible when you put it that way.

Yes thats exactly what he is saying if in an alternate universe 360 price will stay the same and Natal is never released. Since we all know there will be another price cut and Natal will be released the 360 will once again surpass PS3 in weekly sales. Its just a matter of when.

  No I factored in Christmas boosts and the such, because PS3 is unlikely to maintain its sales lead throughout the next year and a half, in fact I fully expect many weeks, even months, next year where 360 retakes the lead, so I estimated, that even taking into account holiday boosts and software releases, the best PS3 can hope for is averaging a sales lead around what it has now

However that is a best case scenario for the PS3

I see.

How the hell did you factor in all the Christmas boosts and SW boosts without knowing what will be sold?

And your estimations for many weeks and months next year are 99% likely to be way, way off.

It's so ironic that you just mentioned that......................

I touched on Ratchet & Clunks poor sales based on ps1 and ps2 hardware sales earlier.

Based on a once 100 MILLION userbase........ do sony consoles really have ANY massive first or second party selling games?

The only one i can think of now is Gran turismo.

Sure......... games Like Grand Theft Auto sold brilliantly on ps2, but they were 3RD party and GTA is multiplat now.

So looking at the evidence you have to say that Gears of War and Halo have sold ASTRONOMICALLY well since the 360 only has a 32 million userbase and the first Halo and Gears sold 15 million combined (almost half the 360's userbase)

FANTASTIC.......!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well to be honest if there is one thing Sony is good at, it is kicking people when they are down. For example when Xbox was released here in Europe Sony went and lowered the price on PS2. Also dont forget the boost in sales PS3 will get when FFXIII hits Japan this holiday.

I read all of the posts on this thread, and I gotta say MEH.

Everyone suddenly forgot that the 360 had been in the market for a year before the PS3/Wii were released. When PS3 was released, 360 had a lead of 5.3M units.

In my opinion, the only thing Sony would need to do is go below that gap of 5.3M. Why? Because everyone around the world kept talking trash about the PS3, while saying how the 360 was "SO AWESUM!!1", the lack of worthy games during several months, and being the most expensive of the consoles on this generation.

Consider that, if it manages to close the gap below 5.3M, it means there is something special many don't see.

My 2c.

Is somthing special? or was somthing special? only time will tell.

Of course, this is a very rough estimate, however a few things are pretty likely, first that PS3 sales are likely to peak this holiday, and then drop off in the next year, with a boost for a time around the GT5 release, 360 is likely to price drop next spring and possibly next fall, Sony may have one price drop next fall, but with a weaker overall lineup next holiday, while the 360 will likely have a stronger one, the Wand and Natal are likely not to have a big effect on the market, and likely not to be successes.  So I felt my estimate was very generous to the PS3.