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9 Reasons Why Blu-Ray Will Succeed

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Gh0st4lifE said:
Obvious reasons why it is failing :


Blu Ray = DVD 1.5

Blu-Ray price = DVD 2.5

Economical crisis makes you think again.

Downloadable content is cheaper, more practical, with a wider and more accessible choice, etc.


It will never replace the DVD the way the DVD replaced the VHS. It might gain respectable market shares in some regions but it will never fulfill it's purpose.


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Blu-Ray might be Sony's biggest mistake ever. It screwed the PS3 and it wasn't meant to synchronize with an economical crises. UMDs, MiniDiscs, etc. It's all part of a huge Betamax complex. Sony needs a therapy.
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@ Ghost

There is a bigger picture quality difference between Blu-Ray and DVD than DVD and VHS.
So Blu-Ray is not DVD 1.5



Gh0st4lifE said:
Obvious reasons why it is failing :


Blu Ray = DVD 1.5

Blu-Ray price = DVD 2.5

Economical crisis makes you think again.

Downloadable content is cheaper, more practical, with a wider and more accessible choice, etc.


It will never replace the DVD the way the DVD replaced the VHS. It might gain respectable market shares in some regions but it will never fulfill it's purpose.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray might be Sony's biggest mistake ever. It screwed the PS3 and it wasn't meant to synchronize with an economical crises. UMDs, MiniDiscs, etc. It's all part of a huge Betamax complex. Sony needs a therapy.
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Sony doesn't own the Blu-ray patent, or even 50%.

 

UMDs and Mini-discs (outside Japan) never reached 10% penetration.  Weekly software revenues (BD/ BD+ DVD) is what I use as the number to measure market penetration.



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SMcc1887 said:
@ Ghost

There is a bigger picture quality difference between Blu-Ray and DVD than DVD and VHS.
So Blu-Ray is not DVD 1.5

That may be true in terms of resolution, but in terms of picture degradation, artifacts, and other methods of measuring 'quality' which are more visible to the human eye than straight-up resolution, it is most certainly false.

Also, he used a movie from the 80s to prove that digital distribution doesn't have good enough quality?  I can assure him it would be just as bad on Blu-Ray (if they ever bothered to give it a release)



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kowenicki said:
reasons 5 and 6 are the only ones that matter...

I second this assessment.

 



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Good article. Reasons 5 & 6 though are redundant. Blu-Ray will not fail but I don't think it will completely replace DVD.



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Alright, let's handle these in order:

1. Digital downloads will not eliminate the need for discs anytime soon.

 I actually agree with this point, it will be a long time before we go to strictly "download only" market.  That said Bluray is currently facing two very tuff apponents, digital downloads and dvd.  Bluray will never be able to become as dominate as DVD's were, that is not to say it won't be successful, because it it up againt stronger and more compitition then DVD's ever were.

2. Having one clear standard is a big advantage.

This is as big of an advantage as it is a dissadvantage.  Have one formate means less people waiting on the fence, but it also means that there is less insentive to drop prices to beat the compitition.  When HD DVD was still competing, prices were falling like crazy.  Once HD DVD droped out, prices have stablized and will fall much more slowly.  And right now, price is the determianing factor as to whether Bluray will succed.

3. Blu-ray isn't going to be replaced by another disc format anytime soon.

I would worry less about what could replace it and more about if it will ever replace DVD's.

4. Prices for large-screen HDTVs will continue to drop.

True, and this should help Bluray adoption, but Bluray players are not going to go 1:1 with HD TV's.  I have had an HDTV for over a year now and I still don't have a bluray player.

5. Prices for Blu-ray players will continue to drop.

"By this time next year, there will be several sub-$100 Blu-ray players on the market. "  Although I hope this is true, you cannot garentee this.  And it will have to drop below $100 befor it will become mass market freindly.

6. Prices for Blu-ray discs will drop to near DVD price levels.

*see points 2 & 6.  These points apply to the discs as well.  And the price of the discs have been falling even more slowly then the players.

7. Sony will sell lots of PlayStation 3 game consoles.

Not without a price drop.  And because of Sony's fiscal troubles, that will not happen in 2009.

8. Sony can't afford to have Blu-ray fail.

Although I agree with this to some extent, right now Sony doesn't have the fiscal muscle to do anything about it.

9. Sony and its partners will figure out a way to have Blu-ray resonate with the public.

This is based more more on opion and hope then fact.  Sony and partners already know how to make Bluray resonate with the public, drop the prices for both players and discs to near DVD levels.  But right now they are more worried about profit margins then market share. (Doen't this sound fimilar for Sony)



Also, point 6 is simply wrong. The entire reason content providers want to move to blu-ray is because DVD got too cheap for them. Too many of DVD's sales are happening at the cheap 'budget' prices, and it's too hard to sell a movie at a higher price. Blu-Ray means they can prop up the prices somewhat.

To the content providers, Blu-Ray disks being at the cost of DVDs means that they lose more money per sale. Right now the increased cost of blu-ray is only partially because of the increased cost of the disk; the vast majority of it is for the content owners, who are not about to eliminate the extra 10+ dollars they make per sale. Also, for the foreseeable future, you won't be seeing the bargain-bin Blu-Rays that have been giving the content industry so mush angst in their DVD incarnations. Heck, you may never see them on Blu-Ray, as by the time the format matures to the point where the content industry is ready for them, Digital Distribution may have taken over the long tail part of selling content. DVD had both the blockbusters and the long tail; it was much cheaper to print a DVD than to record a VHS tape, after all. The content industry is purposely not putting these old movies on blu-ray right now, to keep average profit per disc sold high, and reduce the incentive to buy cheap, older movies over more expensive, new movies. That won't be changing quickly.



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It has been my opinion for a while that Blu-Ray will only start selling seriously when it gets near DVD prices. It will take a very long time for people to migrate though, personally I won't migrate before prices are similar AND my DVD players break down.

At that point I may well be downloading all of my movies though...

 



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