m$ secret weapon could be killer instinct 3,or maybe get blizzard to port over diablo 3 to the 360 only. both systems have good titles for this year, but gt5 hasnt been confirmed for this year . so u can count it yet for 09, and ff13 will only have a effect in japan this year. so no effect outside of japan. either way both should sell well, but if the economy stays bad for 09, which alot of ppl say it will then a $299 ps3 wont do enough for sony as m$ arcade does for it at $199.
A SCEE executive confirmed that Gran Turismo 5 is on schedule to arrive in Europe during "Christmas 2009." That's not to say it can't get delayed, but that's an unforseeable circumstance and can be said about almost any game. Since Gran Turismo games always hit Japan first, that also pretty much confirms a Japanese release this year.
I don't see what your point against FFXIII is. It will only release in Japan this year, but Final Fantasy is practically a religion there and their games almost always make most of their sales in Japan anyway. When it's released there it will sell hundreds of thousands of PS3s.
If Microsoft doesn't drop the price of the 360 in Q4 2009 to match a PS3 price-cut of $100, I can assure you that PS3 will sell infinitely more, even if the 360 is still $100 cheaper. The reason for this is because the PS3 will open itself up to a vastly larger market, while 360 will remain with the same one that it has already been selling to for over a year. This is the exact reason why PS3 did so poorly in comparison to the 360 this last Christmas.