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Forums - Sony Discussion - "Blu-Ray Dead In 5 Years" Says Samsung!

Blip on 20 December 2008
SMcc1887 said:
Hamister said:
I agree with Samsung on this. Blu-ray will most likely not see the same kind of life span as DVD. The reasoning behind this is that there were far greater differences/advantages with DVD compared to VHS, than there is between DVD and Blu-ray. In other words it will take much longer for Blu-ray to capture the market, than it took DVD.

I believe we will see downloadable content take over the market within a few years - perhaps even before Blu-ray has replaced DVD as market leader. It's inevtiable.

No its not. Are you telling me you would like to sit and download a monster like MGS4? Right now that would take forever.

Before downloading takes over discs speeds will have to greatly increase, and even then I feel there will still be a demand for physical collections (people will still rather have a physical collection of eg: movies than a collection stored on a HDD)

 

I am one who would still rather have a physical cd with cover art and liner notes for my music.  Didn't stop the downloading of music from happening.  IMO there is even less reason to want a physical form of a movie.

 



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supermario128 on 20 December 2008

I think DVD will still be king in 5 years.




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dbot on 20 December 2008
scottie said:
dbot said:
Hamister said:
I agree with Samsung on this. Blu-ray will most likely not see the same kind of life span as DVD. The reasoning behind this is that there were far greater differences/advantages with DVD compared to VHS, than there is between DVD and Blu-ray. In other words it will take much longer for Blu-ray to capture the market, than it took DVD.

I believe we will see downloadable content take over the market within a few years - perhaps even before Blu-ray has replaced DVD as market leader. It's inevtiable.

 

  • All Blu-ray players will play all DVDs and the playback will be upscaled to 720p.
  • The migration from VHS to DVD was slowed because people had to discard their VHS libraries in favor of DVDs or they had to retain their VCRs for VHS playback.
  • The resolution improvement from VHS (240x480) to DVD (720x480) is much less than the improvement from DVD (720x480) to Blu-ray (1920x1080).

 

Compared to VHS

DVDs didn't need to be rewound

DVDs were smaller and lighter

DVD's were less prone to losing quality over time (digital not analogue)

DVD's could have 'special features', and these could be navigated through

DVD's could be paused without damaging them

DVD's could have bookmarks placed in them, both by the studio and the consumer

DVD's make excellent coasters

 

Blu Ray > DVD >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Betamax>VHS

DVD's would scratch easily.  Blu-ray has all of these advantages plus they are scratch resistant.  Also, the in-movie popup menu is a nice feature.

 



Thanks for the input, Jeff.

 

 

sega4life on 20 December 2008

Vehicle and Portable DvD players is whats going to kill Blu-Ray.. or take part in it any way.

DvD in Vehicles use to be ridiculously priced, but now you can get them Free with purchase.

And Portable Players can be found for under $50.

Parents like my self, (when staring at the Movie section) like to get the most out of their entertainment.

 

DvD: $9.99 - $14.99 for a movie I can watch:

Any TV in my home

On road trips

At the park

By the Pool

 

Blu-Ray: $24.99 - $34.99 for a movie I can watch:

One TV in my home


It might be a small point for some, but it's a bigger factor then some people give credit for.

 



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TKC-Muzzer on 20 December 2008
NJ5 said:
TWRoO said:
Uncle Fister said:
scottie said:
DVD released 1996
Blu Ray released 2006
Next Drive released 2013/2014

Doesn't seem like a bad assumption

 

 Not relevent.

VHS was released 20 years before DVD...Whats your point?

How long a format lasts is determined by uptake and profitability of the format, not how long ago it was released...

Your logic is way too simplistic.

That would be why DVD will likely still be outselling Blu-Ray in 5 years time.

 

I can see Blu-Ray outselling DVD if/when it gets near DVD prices. Blu-Ray quality is not a big deal (or even terribly noticeable vs upscaled DVD) for most people, so price is king.

 

 

Another poor comment. Blu Ray holds a major improvement over upscaled dvd. My girlfriend notices straight away and that says it all. People who think upscaled dvd offers HD like pictures are dissallusioned. Whack a copy of Pixars Cars in on Blu Ray and it blows an upscaled dvd version out of the water.



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Dgc1808 on 20 December 2008

I thought I remember DVD also showing off an OLED TV at some point?? 2 in fact?? Was I wrong????



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NJ5 on 20 December 2008
TKC-Muzzer said:

 

Another poor comment. Blu Ray holds a major improvement over upscaled dvd. My girlfriend notices straight away and that says it all. People who think upscaled dvd offers HD like pictures are dissallusioned. Whack a copy of Pixars Cars in on Blu Ray and it blows an upscaled dvd version out of the water.

I didn't say upscaled DVD offers HD like pictures, I said most people don't care. Many people don't even notice unless they get close to a big TV on a side-by-side comparison.

Only 25% of American houses have a HDTV. A number of those don't even know what HD is, let alone how to connect a HD source properly to it. Many of those HDTVs are small, on which the difference between Blu-Ray and upscaled DVD is even smaller. A number of people don't notice a difference between the two, let alone a big difference, let alone do they care.

All I'm saying is that price is the main difference between Blu-Ray and DVD for most people, which is why the former won't outsell the latter until prices are close between the two.

 



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epsilon72 on 20 December 2008

Wait, I don't understand - from the samsung quote it sounds like they're saying Blu-ray will die because of OLED displays? How does that make sense at all? :/



pearLy on 20 December 2008

@NJ5:

I think you are absolutely right. Over here in Europe a movie on Blu-Ray disc usually costs 32€ (!) in a retail store (Amazon: 22€). That's nearly 43$.

In my opinion people won't really buy Blu-Rays as long as the price is so high, especially because - how scottie explained it so well in this thread - the difference between DVD and Blu-Ray is not big enough. Of course the picture quality is totally incomparable but this single improvement can never justify the higher price.

To take full advantage of HD content you need an HDTV. And please don't forget how much Blu-Ray players cost. Altogether a good Blu-Ray experience is still just too expensive for a lot of people, I'm afraid.



Acevil on 20 December 2008

Personally I wouldn't care, the next format hopefully is much better in price for me to care. Until that time I will stick with going to the theatre and imax.