ssj12 said: heres my predictions: - If uncharted sucks - PS3 will be in 3rd - if uncharted rules - PS3 will be in 1st - if killzone 2 doesnt match the trailer - Sony will be laughed at - if killzone 2 matches the trailer - everyone is who doubted it will have brown marks in their pants can I be an analyst now getting 6 figure salaries doing nothing but making things up lol.

If Uncharted sucks, nothing will happen. If Uncharted rules, nothing will happen. Uncharted is a brand new franchise, so why all the hype on a franchise, nobody has played? It's like watching a movie you have never watched. You have no idea if it will be good or not. How does one game, decide the future of an entire console? It's all of the games, as a whole, that decides the future of an entire console. There are a handful of good Playstation 3 games, and none of them alone, never-the-less, together, are creating success for the Playstation 3. As for Killzone 2, Killzone 1 got okay reviews (around 70%), so don't expect much from Killzone 2. It's no Halo, it will simply exist as a typical FPS. And don't write "LOL," at the end of your post, because it's not a period, and it doesn't make sense.

a.l.e.x59 said: ssj12 said: heres my predictions: - If uncharted sucks - PS3 will be in 3rd - if uncharted rules - PS3 will be in 1st - if killzone 2 doesnt match the trailer - Sony will be laughed at - if killzone 2 matches the trailer - everyone is who doubted it will have brown marks in their pants can I be an analyst now getting 6 figure salaries doing nothing but making things up lol. If Uncharted sucks, nothing will happen. If Uncharted rules, nothing will happen. Uncharted is a brand new franchise, so why all the hype on a franchise, nobody has played? It's like watching a movie you have never watched. You have no idea if it will be good or not. How does one game, decide the future of an entire console? It's all of the games, as a whole, that decides the future of an entire console. There are a handful of good Playstation 3 games, and none of them alone, never-the-less, together, are creating success for the Playstation 3. As for Killzone 2, Killzone 1 got okay reviews (around 70%), so don't expect much from Killzone 2. It's no Halo, it will simply exist as a typical FPS. And don't write "LOL," at the end of your post, because it's not a period, and it doesn't make sense.

 From what reviews and my fellow journalists at PSU has stated that game is amazing. New franchises have been known to be successful. Look at Tomb Raider and Halo. Remember all the original Xbox had was Halo and Halo 2 as its main selling point. It had a few other games but really everyone wanted Halo so dont feed me a load of crap that 1 game has never been the main selling point of a console before. I'm expecting KillZone 2 to be great because it has to. It would be huge negative PR due to how hyped the original trialer was.

ssj12 said: From what reviews and my fellow journalists at PSU has stated that game is amazing. New franchises have been known to be successful. Look at Tomb Raider and Halo. Remember all the original Xbox had was Halo and Halo 2 as its main selling point. It had a few other games but really everyone wanted Halo so dont feed me a load of crap that 1 game has never been the main selling point of a console before. I'm expecting KillZone 2 to be great because it has to. It would be huge negative PR due to how hyped the original trialer was.

Just because some amazing new games get picked up and idolized doesnt mean it happens to all of them. Most of the amazing games get not so amazing sales simply because they get overlooked by non-hardcore buyers (using hardcore here to define anybody who looks on websites and reviews constantly and sees the buildup, basically anyone on this site or similar sites) instead average games can become huge when perhaps they dont deserve to be.

Basically if Uncharted is really REALLY good it will sell quite a few copies, probably clock the million (which so far only one PS3 game has done) but unless it gets really lucky it wont become a system standard like Halo is.

ssj12 said: a.l.e.x59 said: ssj12 said: heres my predictions: - If uncharted sucks - PS3 will be in 3rd - if uncharted rules - PS3 will be in 1st    From what reviews and my fellow journalists at PSU has stated that game is amazing. New franchises have been known to be successful. Look at Tomb Raider and Halo. Remember all the original Xbox had was Halo and Halo 2 as its main selling point. It had a few other games but really everyone wanted Halo so dont feed me a load of crap that 1 game has never been the main selling point of a console before. I'm expecting KillZone 2 to be great because it has to. It would be huge negative PR due to how hyped the original trialer was.

IIRC, XBox was never in 1st.

sim exchange numbers:

PLAYSTATION 3 Global 63.7M units
Xbox 360 Global 63.5M units

a difference of 0.2M units is negligible. basically it's a tie.

in general i'd rather believe prediction market numbers than some analyst numbers, especially one with all those qualified statements. it's just so that they're showing they're actually doing some work, but the work itself is completely worthless.

of course, this prediction market involves no monetary exchanges.

we need a thread where the numbers from the sim exchange are discussed!

Erik Aston said: ssj12 said: a.l.e.x59 said: ssj12 said: heres my predictions: - If uncharted sucks - PS3 will be in 3rd - if uncharted rules - PS3 will be in 1st From what reviews and my fellow journalists at PSU has stated that game is amazing. New franchises have been known to be successful. Look at Tomb Raider and Halo. Remember all the original Xbox had was Halo and Halo 2 as its main selling point. It had a few other games but really everyone wanted Halo so dont feed me a load of crap that 1 game has never been the main selling point of a console before. I'm expecting KillZone 2 to be great because it has to. It would be huge negative PR due to how hyped the original trialer was. IIRC, XBox was never in 1st.

 True, but it did sell a ton of consoles because of those games alone. What happens when theres several of those games. Warhawk will sell a ton of console becuase theres a huge audience that loves online only games. Heavenly Sword. Uncharted. 

Ssj: Just look at GC, it had lots of hyped games. And some of them was system STD:s...

Anyway, about the subject.
Usually i look first for errors in the text to define how reliable the analysist is, or how much he (or she) knows about the industry. Now i picked 2 errors: Sonys traditional slow start and "Micro$oft Xbox 360, Nintendo Wii and Playstation 3".
So, the analysist doesn't know about the industry anything but "that there's Playstation". So (once again) i think that The Source is much more on the right track (although i don't completely agree with him about this).

I think that it might be a close call between M$ and Sony, 360 has advantage in good sales in the US and in poor PS3 sales, which drives japanese developers to develope games for 360 (and bring more variety for its library). 360 disadvantages are poor sales in japan and bad variety of games. Also quality issues about the hardware and Micro$oft not taken the full benefit from its early start are going to shoot M$ in its leg.
PS3:s advantages are BD-drive, variety of its upcoming games (or atleast potential). And disadvantages price, poor sales everywhere, BD-drive, worse library than what 360 has and it starting to orientate only to few genres of games.

So it's hard to say, that which is going to be 3rd, but i see Japan being only reason to save PS3 from last place.

mrstickball said: PS3 sales constantly go down, but the are bottoming out. It's held steady at 20k/wk in the US, and is around the same in Europe/Others. Japan? It's unsure of right now. It seems though, that the PS3 bottomed out around 8,500 units, but has gone up a bit since then (but no one knows if it'll plummet past the 8.5k mark). What matters is the game release schedule for Sony in Japan. It'll do well in the US/EUR regardless. However, with a major title like MGS4, it could do quite well. Not Wii-levels, but it could pull ~750k in 2 months or so in Japan.

The game might pull 750 k, but I doubt that it will sell another 650k PS3:s. Looking at past performance for MGS makes me doubt that it will sell to many systems. We have to count that a lot of the sales will go to the existing PS3 crowd.

Name	Console	Publisher	Japan	America	Others	Total
	Metal Gear Solid	Konami	0.78	2.81	2.00	5.59
	Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty	Konami	0.85	2.29	2.42	5.56
	Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater	Konami	0.86	1.42	1.68	3.96

I mean MGS has never sold more than 1 million consols, the game might move another 200 k consols, but a 750k? No way.

The hard and bitter truth is that Wii Sport will probarbly sell more than both MGS (that one is quit clear) and Final Fantasy in Japan.

I actualy think sony is in the same situation that the Gamecube was in last time, doing better than the xbox in japan, but not enough to pass the xboxs strong sales in USA. Of course Europe might help PS3 something that GameCube failed to do.

PS3 has yet to overpass 360 in WW weekly sales yet as a continue trend. When that happens then we can speculate it to finish second, until then, it just wishing.

Right now I'd say PS3 may end up in third, on a week by week basis PS3 still sells less hardware than the 360 WW, unless that changes as the price of the two console drop, I doubt they will be able to overtake the 360 lead