DFC: PS3 unlikely to finish in 3rd place

[robjoh]

mrstickball said:
PS3 sales constantly go down, but the are bottoming out. It's held steady at 20k/wk in the US, and is around the same in Europe/Others. Japan? It's unsure of right now. It seems though, that the PS3 bottomed out around 8,500 units, but has gone up a bit since then (but no one knows if it'll plummet past the 8.5k mark).

What matters is the game release schedule for Sony in Japan. It'll do well in the US/EUR regardless. However, with a major title like MGS4, it could do quite well. Not Wii-levels, but it could pull ~750k in 2 months or so in Japan.

The game might pull 750 k, but I doubt that it will sell another 650k PS3:s. Looking at past performance for MGS makes me doubt that it will sell to many systems. We have to count that a lot of the sales will go to the existing PS3 crowd.

Name	Console	Publisher	Japan	America	Others	Total
	Metal Gear Solid	Konami	0.78	2.81	2.00	5.59
	Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty	Konami	0.85	2.29	2.42	5.56
	Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater	Konami	0.86	1.42	1.68	3.96

I mean MGS has never sold more than 1 million consols, the game might move another 200 k consols, but a 750k? No way.

The hard and bitter truth is that Wii Sport will probarbly sell more than both MGS (that one is quit clear) and Final Fantasy in Japan.

I actualy think sony is in the same situation that the Gamecube was in last time, doing better than the xbox in japan, but not enough to pass the xboxs strong sales in USA. Of course Europe might help PS3 something that GameCube failed to do.