Hey guys I am new here but i love the site.

Anyways, the problem is the Wii may loose its "it" factor that makes it such a hot ticket item, its possible that they could drop off at some point. I see the 360 staying healthy for this race and getting around 65 million, i however do see the Wii winning as of right now.

The PS3 to me isn't in a position to win, they have 2 games that they can push for millions but even if today they released MGS4 and FFXIII they would still prob not surpass the 360. I am betting on the 360 getting close to 20 million by the end of this year.

PS3 will probably never catch up to the Xbox 360, because I think it's going to fail.

is there an option of never, Maybe?

PS3 will pass x360 at the end of 2008 and I am being very positive. I still believe that the beast ps3 will wake up one day and sell alot, not as much as Wii but enough to pass 360. I am ready to change my statement to never if this trend goes on till September.

 i disagree i think the 360 will be lucky to get to 13 mill this year....

people do forget that parents that buy there kids games dont want to go out and buy a new system and a whole new libray of games they'll stick with a system that they are formiliar with so they wont need to buy any games for b/c u can already play the exsisting games you have.

i do suspect that the PS3 sales have been pushed by the Sony brand but people are just waiting to jump from the ps2 to the ps3. if sony knew that the ps2 was still combating the 360 they should have waited to realease the ps3 when price was low, lowering sales for the ps2 and when blueray really needed the hlp from the ps3 to battle the HD-DVD 

 Good post.

The problem with Sony is that, even if they hit a second place finish in the market, this probably ends up as a net loss on the system for the PS3's lifetime. How long did it take for them to turn profits on the PS2, even after selling so many of them? And those profits are long gone now...

Now, while they might control second place in Japan, I don't see it ever able to take down the 360 in the US. Too much of a lead, and the 360's already hit that 'prime' in it's life where good things can be seen. Europe is a mixed bag, it could flip and flop back and forth between the two.

I'll stick to it though, and say the Wii's already got first WW. I think Sony might squeak it out into second, only because of Japan and Europe, unless Xbox can get some deeper footholds in the stronger EU territories. 

however the major chunk of the gaming buying population is not a child and sits in the area of knowing what they want, 18-25 is still the largest group.

That's right the only problem of the PS3 is the price, nothing else because they can have the better hardware/software/content in every aspect for the futur... soon a more complete controlller, Home communauty, free online, Ps Eye, Sony Worldwide Studios , SOE, PSP/PSP2, MGM, Colombia, Sony Music, VAIO, Sony Ericson, best retro with PS1/PS2 maybe PSP one day, fiability and silence of the hardware, HDMI 1.3, low cost HDD, blu ray, bluetooth, Wifi, card reader, Linux, the Brand, etc... So much potential.
MS will not win mass market with FPS, a defective 360 with multiple models and an online service you must pay... It's just for hardcore gamers who mostly owns every systems.

The 360 has an advance because of the 1 year older.
The PS3 sells like the 360 last year but they have 200$ or 300$ more in the price... no christmas in Europe, 5 month late in europe, Wii and 360 to compete, bad image because of fanboys and FUD on the internet, big games not already out, new technology not mainstream, multi-platform games.... I think with all that it sells very well.

So with the price drop, christmas everywhere, great big games optimised for the PS3, online distribution, Home, new 6axis, better image, more HD-TV and Blu Ray content... They can win this generation.

There's not far from 200 millions consoles to sell this generation and were're just at 21 millions... we're far from the end... MS will not sell a 720 soon.. the PS2 continue to outsell the 360 in so much country...

Real next gen games just begin to arrived and the 360 is already in his 3rd christmas in 6 months. ( 1st christmas for the PS3 in europe in 6 months ). With 2 christmas more in europe I dont see the 360 as a real success in Europe, and it's already game over in japan.
The 360 without competition was selling worse than the 1st Xbox worldwide and in the USA before Gears of War.

Maybe I'm wrong but I think the 65nm Cell is already possible, blu ray cost are going down, no mass defective PS3 to repair, just 1 model, RSX made by Sony himself, no more EE+GS, cheap HDD from the laptop market, sony is an elctronic giant who knows better than microsoft hardware cost reduction ... There's room for a price drop... more than Microsoft and their Core + Premium + Elite with red ring who must cost so much to microsoft.

 @ Machina-AX

That's the point. Great post.

The problem with this sort of analysis is that it relies on straight-line projections. It is much more indicative of current sales than future trends. Any number of things can happen along the way.

The casual market that Sony is more friendly towards? They're not the fanboys. They can and will walk away from Sony if given a reason, and currently the Wii and PS3 have given them a reason to do so.

Japanese bias? OK, the 360 likely will not do well in Japan, but that doesn't mean the PS3 will. Certainly the cultural bias didn't stop the XB from stomping Nintendo in 2 regions. If PS3 sales don't pick up in Japan, the 360s edge in the west could be enough to carry the day.