Sony and Microsoft's next console would have to have an entry point of $300 or less, would have to bring something a little more innovative than a copy of the Wii-mote, both Sony and Microsoft dropped the ball on this gen when it came to consoles available on launch day, so they would have to make more, and have a great diversity of solid launch games.

People tend to "forget" that Nintendo always had very competitive hardware. WiiHD will probably be very close to what the competitors will release in terms of horsepower. The Wii was Nintendo's only possibility to survive even if sales totally failed. Nintendo is now a very healthy company with loads of money to spend on R&D. Besides that it WILL have the 3rd party support from the start next-gen. 3rd parties won't make the same mistake again. Besides with closer hardware specs 3rd parties don't even have to chose.

The casuals will of course be informed that every Wii game can be played on WiiHD, which will probably launch with WiiSports 2, which will have much better motion controls.
Sure Sony and Microsoft will try to catch the casual gamer, but that will be hard.
If Nintendo makes its next-gen consoles as strong as PS4, but at $250 AND Nintendo quality casual games I don't see how they can lose the next gen.

For more on this read Malstroms latest article. Even if you don't agree it's still a very interesting read on business strategies.

The only company able to give Nintendo a run next gen is Nintendo themselves.
No other company can with their disruption. The fact is that if you accept that they won this generation by a landslide, you also have to remember that they did through creating a paradigm shift. Paradigm shifts are very hard to adapt too.
To have proof of that, just realize that lots of people are locked up in the old one (evolution of graphics) to this very day.
Now, realize that the current competitors will just have to destroy their userbase to jump into the paradigm shift created by Nintendo. That's called being disrupted: you just can't do that without destroying your previous business model. Nintendo directed its disruption very well, but look at the tons of negative press they get from the user base stuck in the old paradigm.
It's too late for this gen already, the competitors can't do that now, or they will kill their console. Even next gen, they will still have to learn to get the new paradigm shift, and then improve on it to have a chance. Even if Nintendo isn't very good at improving, they are years ahead into this new paradigm:
- they are creating an army of new fans of their franchises
- the Mii and other Nintendo brands are staying in people's heads now
- they didn't even unveil every part of their strategy yet (for example, the DS-Wii connectivity has still not really appeared, the water was only tested till now)
- they are changing the values associated with videogames

Also, I expect this console cycle to last 10 years at least for the Wii, and I don't expect the Wii's successor in the 5 years usual time frame (which would make it out in 2011). I expect the other consoles to then go on life support, limping along the Wii, in fear of launching first, not knowing what to do. The longer frame will also be because of 3rd parties, as they are so slow to get into the Wii. I'm sure they will regret it bitterly later.

It's really amazing. I talked about the two brothers that sold their PS3 and bought a Wii with Wii Fit. Well, they have a married younger brother, that is all into PC games. He was hesitating between a XBox 360 and a Wii, and finally got a XBox 360 (on a SDTV). Yesterday I went to see them for a birthday, and I discover a Wii... with Wii Fit. The guy had to buy a Wii, which he was reluctant to do, because of his wife. And she has Wii Fit too. And everone praised the Wii and Wii Fit. It was incredible, they just bought a XB360 (well, the guy bought it on his own), and they don't have lots of money. I'm one of the last person around me that still resists to buy this, but I won't resist for long...

Nintendo: "Hi! Im a Wii"

Apple: "Hi! Im an Apple"

Nintendo: "Hey what you doing there?"

Apple: "Im playing a movie I downloaded off my integrated Itunes store"

Nintendo: "Bahahahahaha"

Apple: "Whats so funny?"

Nintendo: "You have to ask the other two guys over there"

:)

Sega, silly.

The "will Nintendo die?" threads? Come on bleu. Can you come up with something else.


To answer your question, I think everybody has a shot at taking on Nintendo, but not defeating them at all. (m$ has a smaller shot because of their Japanese relations.)


Off-topic, how many of the threads are you making?

WiiHD? Wii Sports 2? I'm sorry, but Malstrom never said that's part of Nintendo's strategy. Because it isn't. There will be no WiiHD. There will be no Wii Sports 2.

And Nintendo will certainly not promote their next console by explaining that it plays the exact same games. "Hey, buy this new console because it plays old games!" Nintendo are about creating NEW experiences, if you haven't noticed.

And for Pete's sake, Nintendo aren't earning this money now simply to blow it on R&D for next gen. To some extent that's why they keep large cash reserves, but it isn't to develop a sustaining innovation like a graphical leap or improved motion control. That would be a SNES move or a PS2 move, and Nintendo are no longer looking for sustaining innovations like those.

And one more thing... Wii wasn't Nintendo's "only possibility to survive." They had no debt, high profits and large cash reserves throughout the PS2 era. In fact, Sony vastly increased their first party development and introduced a handheld console as a desperate attempt to copy Nintendo's traditional advantages and get the same kind of stability and profitability. That's how good of shape Nintendo was in last gen.

Did either company learn anything from the Wii and Nintendo DS?
Can Nintendo pull another Rabbit out of their hat?

Really, these are the two main things that will determine how the next generation plays out ..,.

 Well, the Next iteration of the console will be HD, and probably will be full BC, for two reasons, the success of the VC + the succes of the Wii, nintendo is not going to launch a console without BC it will be too foolish and probably will not be that hard at moment of the time... but yes it there is not going to be wii sports 2...

 Yes, nintendo makes new experiences, but the VC and the BC of the Wii shows how good classics game are part of their strategie now, is better to provide some sorf incentive allowing to keep your old games (Like the PS2-PS3 with BC)  than enter on a new gen without it... (N64/GC)...

The jump to graphics was over pushed this gen, Nintendo choosed to skipped it,  but the made clear how the next one will be there since the tech is going to get cheaper, allowing them to make a HD console and keeping the $250 price tag, Sony and MS will no made the same move of this gen, no more $600 consoles, no more selling at lost... thats why the power between the next three will be like the past gen (PS/GC/XBOX)

I do think that Nintendo's next console will be pretty similar (probably a bit weaker) to Sony and microsoft's consoles in terms of power, but I am certain there will be something unique that you can't find on Sony and Microsoft's consoles.