The only company able to give Nintendo a run next gen is Nintendo themselves.
No other company can with their disruption. The fact is that if you accept that they won this generation by a landslide, you also have to remember that they did through creating a paradigm shift. Paradigm shifts are very hard to adapt too.
To have proof of that, just realize that lots of people are locked up in the old one (evolution of graphics) to this very day.
Now, realize that the current competitors will just have to destroy their userbase to jump into the paradigm shift created by Nintendo. That's called being disrupted: you just can't do that without destroying your previous business model. Nintendo directed its disruption very well, but look at the tons of negative press they get from the user base stuck in the old paradigm.
It's too late for this gen already, the competitors can't do that now, or they will kill their console. Even next gen, they will still have to learn to get the new paradigm shift, and then improve on it to have a chance. Even if Nintendo isn't very good at improving, they are years ahead into this new paradigm:
- they are creating an army of new fans of their franchises
- the Mii and other Nintendo brands are staying in people's heads now
- they didn't even unveil every part of their strategy yet (for example, the DS-Wii connectivity has still not really appeared, the water was only tested till now)
- they are changing the values associated with videogames
Also, I expect this console cycle to last 10 years at least for the Wii, and I don't expect the Wii's successor in the 5 years usual time frame (which would make it out in 2011). I expect the other consoles to then go on life support, limping along the Wii, in fear of launching first, not knowing what to do. The longer frame will also be because of 3rd parties, as they are so slow to get into the Wii. I'm sure they will regret it bitterly later.
It's really amazing. I talked about the two brothers that sold their PS3 and bought a Wii with Wii Fit. Well, they have a married younger brother, that is all into PC games. He was hesitating between a XBox 360 and a Wii, and finally got a XBox 360 (on a SDTV). Yesterday I went to see them for a birthday, and I discover a Wii... with Wii Fit. The guy had to buy a Wii, which he was reluctant to do, because of his wife. And she has Wii Fit too. And everone praised the Wii and Wii Fit. It was incredible, they just bought a XB360 (well, the guy bought it on his own), and they don't have lots of money. I'm one of the last person around me that still resists to buy this, but I won't resist for long...
