People tend to "forget" that Nintendo always had very competitive hardware. WiiHD will probably be very close to what the competitors will release in terms of horsepower. The Wii was Nintendo's only possibility to survive even if sales totally failed. Nintendo is now a very healthy company with loads of money to spend on R&D. Besides that it WILL have the 3rd party support from the start next-gen. 3rd parties won't make the same mistake again. Besides with closer hardware specs 3rd parties don't even have to chose.
The casuals will of course be informed that every Wii game can be played on WiiHD, which will probably launch with WiiSports 2, which will have much better motion controls.
Sure Sony and Microsoft will try to catch the casual gamer, but that will be hard.
If Nintendo makes its next-gen consoles as strong as PS4, but at $250 AND Nintendo quality casual games I don't see how they can lose the next gen.
For more on this read Malstroms latest article. Even if you don't agree it's still a very interesting read on business strategies.
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