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So.. CNBC says Xbox has sold 46.9 WW, any thoughts?

Forums - Sales Discussion - So.. CNBC says Xbox has sold 46.9 WW, any thoughts?

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

So far Nintendo doesn't seem to have been very aggressive in that regard though, as I recall they had no discounts for Holiday 2017 or 2018, and with the Lite now at $200 it doesn't seem likely they'll discount this holiday either.

That's why I included bundles in that part, I dont think we will see any price reductions but I think we can see some better added value bundles than we did last year.

Last year had the special edition Smash & Let's Go bundles but they cost the same as the console+game individually. Other than that they had the MK8D bundle for $299 on BF and a $35 eshop card included for much of December.

This year I could see the OG model MK8D bundle coming back and the $35 eshop being packed in with Lite but this time from BF all the way through Christmas for both.

Yeah I hope they do some good bundles like Sony/MS will, but they do have an annoying habit with the Switch so far of being stingy in terms of holiday deals. I just feel like they could do so much better if they loosened the purse strings a bit and did some killer deals like an aggressively priced Sword/Shield bundle.



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curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

That's why I included bundles in that part, I dont think we will see any price reductions but I think we can see some better added value bundles than we did last year.

Last year had the special edition Smash & Let's Go bundles but they cost the same as the console+game individually. Other than that they had the MK8D bundle for $299 on BF and a $35 eshop card included for much of December.

This year I could see the OG model MK8D bundle coming back and the $35 eshop being packed in with Lite but this time from BF all the way through Christmas for both.

Yeah I hope they do some good bundles like Sony/MS will, but they do have an annoying habit with the Switch so far of being stingy in terms of holiday deals. I just feel like they could do so much better if they loosened the purse strings a bit and did some killer deals like an aggressively priced Sword/Shield bundle.

I would like it if they did as well but I totally understand why they dont, last year saw shipments of 9.42m during the holidays and this year is looking like 10m+



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah I hope they do some good bundles like Sony/MS will, but they do have an annoying habit with the Switch so far of being stingy in terms of holiday deals. I just feel like they could do so much better if they loosened the purse strings a bit and did some killer deals like an aggressively priced Sword/Shield bundle.

I would like it if they did as well but I totally understand why they dont, last year saw shipments of 9.42m during the holidays and this year is looking like 10m+

Oh they're still gonna have a great quarter, and comfortably reach their forecast of 18 million. I just feel like to get 20 million they're gonna need to push a bit harder and not play it so safe.



PAOerfulone said:
Conina said:

You did only account for a margin of error for ONE variable and took the second variable as a fact. What if Famitsu got it wrong and there are 120,000 Xbox Ones or 125,000 sold in Japan? And the estimates don't completely contradict each other, when you consider slight deviations from the true numbers on both variables.

Alright, let's account for if Famitsu got it wrong and do the 120,000 and 125,000 unit numbers.

At those units, divided by 0.3% would equate to:

40 million units (120,000)
41.67 million units (125,000)

So those would still be way below the mark and considerably lower than VGChartz' current worldwide estimates.

And if we reduce the percentage to 0.25%, they would equate to:

48 million units (120,000)
50 million units (125,000)

Now they would be way above the mark.
But all of them are way off from that 46.9 million figure.

Of course, 0.25% and 0.3% aren't the only possibilities and 110,000 or 120,000 or 125,000 aren't the only possibilities.

Could be 46.9m x 0.26% = 122k units in Japan... or 46.9m x 0.25% = 117k units in Japan... or a similar combination.

PAOerfulone said:

There's way too much deviation and margins for error are far too great to be taken seriously, that's the point.

No, the point is that I'm not trying to prove that the estimate of 46.9 million units is right... it could be right, but it also could be wrong. The margins of error of several variables are too big.

You (and some others) on the other hand are trying to prove that the number has to be wrong, although the "contradicting" data are also just estimates with big margins of error.



My thoughts are, that's a nice guess, regardless of the figure it sold (which MS will never release) the system was a complete failure, with 4 different versions each one less popular than the last. Lots of wounds will be being licked over the X1 for MS. Getting handily outsold by the rivals in the States is the worst nail on the coffin for not just that system but potential the Xbox branding, at the very least the Xbox1 branding.



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PAOerfulone said:
Conina said:

You did only account for a margin of error for ONE variable and took the second variable as a fact. What if Famitsu got it wrong and there are 120,000 Xbox Ones or 125,000 sold in Japan? And the estimates don't completely contradict each other, when you consider slight deviations from the true numbers on both variables.

Alright, let's account for if Famitsu got it wrong and do the 120,000 and 125,000 unit numbers.

At those units, divided by 0.3% would equate to:

40 million units (120,000)
41.67 million units (125,000)

So those would still be way below the mark and considerably lower than VGChartz' current worldwide estimates.

And if we reduce the percentage to 0.25%, they would equate to:

48 million units (120,000)
50 million units (125,000)

Now they would be way above the mark.
But all of them are way off from that 46.9 million figure.

There's way too much deviation and margins for error are far too great to be taken seriously, that's the point. In any statistics class you take in college, the point is to maintain the smallest margin of error as possible. Enough to where you can narrow it down to a specific, small range. This range is all over the place. From as low as 36 million to as high as 50 million. You'd have better luck throwing a dart and trying to hit a bulls-eye with a blindfold on. 

Bottom line: There is absolutely no reason whatsoever why we should take CNBC seriously over other trackers and sources that have proven, time and time again, to be much more reliable and accurate. That's all there is to it, and if you can't understand that, then I see no point or purpose to continue this conversation. We're done here.

And I guess the point here also is that there is no reason whatsoever why we should take Famitsu and other trackers over CNBC since all of these provide estimate based reporting. So would you mind explaining how these other trackers are more reliable and accurate. Any proof would be welcomed. I think that is going to be difficult since MS themselves do not report on their console sales numbers.



Xbox 360 and Xbox One

Gamertag:  GamertagOz70

3sexty said:
PAOerfulone said:

Alright, let's account for if Famitsu got it wrong and do the 120,000 and 125,000 unit numbers.

At those units, divided by 0.3% would equate to:

40 million units (120,000)
41.67 million units (125,000)

So those would still be way below the mark and considerably lower than VGChartz' current worldwide estimates.

And if we reduce the percentage to 0.25%, they would equate to:

48 million units (120,000)
50 million units (125,000)

Now they would be way above the mark.
But all of them are way off from that 46.9 million figure.

There's way too much deviation and margins for error are far too great to be taken seriously, that's the point. In any statistics class you take in college, the point is to maintain the smallest margin of error as possible. Enough to where you can narrow it down to a specific, small range. This range is all over the place. From as low as 36 million to as high as 50 million. You'd have better luck throwing a dart and trying to hit a bulls-eye with a blindfold on. 

Bottom line: There is absolutely no reason whatsoever why we should take CNBC seriously over other trackers and sources that have proven, time and time again, to be much more reliable and accurate. That's all there is to it, and if you can't understand that, then I see no point or purpose to continue this conversation. We're done here.

And I guess the point here also is that there is no reason whatsoever why we should take Famitsu and other trackers over CNBC since all of these provide estimate based reporting. So would you mind explaining how these other trackers are more reliable and accurate. Any proof would be welcomed. I think that is going to be difficult since MS themselves do not report on their console sales numbers.

Well, if you actually bothered paying attention to what's been said in this thread, Famitsu and other trackers have always been accurate and close when it comes to tracking Sony and Nintendo, and they certainly never put out the wrong or inaccurate sales figures AFTER Sony or Nintendo published theirs like CNBC did with the PS4.



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Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

PAOerfulone said:
3sexty said:

And I guess the point here also is that there is no reason whatsoever why we should take Famitsu and other trackers over CNBC since all of these provide estimate based reporting. So would you mind explaining how these other trackers are more reliable and accurate. Any proof would be welcomed. I think that is going to be difficult since MS themselves do not report on their console sales numbers.

Well, if you actually bothered paying attention to what's been said in this thread, Famitsu and other trackers have always been accurate and close when it comes to tracking Sony and Nintendo, and they certainly never put out the wrong or inaccurate sales figures AFTER Sony or Nintendo published theirs like CNBC did with the PS4.

It is very convenient to state the bolded part above when we all know as plain as daylight that these trackers jobs have been made a hell lot easier when numbers are being provided by both Sony and Nintendo on a regular basis. Of course they are going to be more accurate for just Nintendo and Sony. Again, let me point out for you that we all know MS don't provide hardware numbers so anything by way of sales being reported by the said trackers are only estimates where XONE is concerned. You are comparing apples and oranges here.



Xbox 360 and Xbox One

Gamertag:  GamertagOz70

chakkra said:
RolStoppable said:

As far as I remember, IDC is the market research firm that got their PS4 number wrong despite Sony officially announcing it about three months before the IDC report. They may have lots of analysts, but apparently none that have enough competence for video game sales. There's no good reason to give IDC the benefit of the doubt when they couldn't even correctly relay a PS4 number that came directly from Sony.

Now that's an interesting fact that I would like to check. By any chance do you have a link for that? I tried to find it, but all I got was an article from Dec, 2017 where their senior analyst said, "I think the PS4 will probably get to 100 million in 2019."


https://www.tweaktown.com/news/60278/analyst-ps4-hit-100-million-2019-ps5-launch-2021/index.html

Turns out that the unreliable analysis came from IHS. They had the PS4 at a flat 53m despite Sony's announcement of 53.4m.

https://www.mcvuk.com/ihs-world-console-market-down-in-2016-but-ps4-claims-51-share-over-xbox-ones-26/

So this means IDC can't be discredited based on the specific precedence linked above, but merely based on the maths for their current figures; Japan accounting for 0.3% of global Xbox One sales simply doesn't add up.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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RolStoppable said:
chakkra said:

Now that's an interesting fact that I would like to check. By any chance do you have a link for that? I tried to find it, but all I got was an article from Dec, 2017 where their senior analyst said, "I think the PS4 will probably get to 100 million in 2019."


https://www.tweaktown.com/news/60278/analyst-ps4-hit-100-million-2019-ps5-launch-2021/index.html

Turns out that the unreliable analysis came from IHS. They had the PS4 at a flat 53m despite Sony's announcement of 53.4m.

https://www.mcvuk.com/ihs-world-console-market-down-in-2016-but-ps4-claims-51-share-over-xbox-ones-26/

So this means IDC can't be discredited based on the specific precedence linked above, but merely based on the maths for their current figures; Japan accounting for 0.3% of global Xbox One sales simply doesn't add up.

Cool, thanks for the reply.

As for the .03% discrepancy.. well, it doesn't add up if we take Famitsu's numbers as the absolute truth, but we know for a fact that Famitsu have been adjusting their PS4/Switch's numbers in a regular basis, every time official numbers are revealed; which hasn't happened for the X1 in quite a few years. So I think is fair to assume that their X1 numbers MIGHT not be as accurate as the others.