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Forums - Sony Discussion - Ps4 @100mill shipped!

Train wreck on 30 July 2019
zorg1000 said:
Train wreck said:

The most likely scenario is that Sony knows that the upcoming comps for July-Sep (Spiderman released Sept 7th) will be tough and want to hedge against that number.  They shipped 3.9 million units last year for that period, they are not matching that.

You dont think Sony factored that in with the initial FY forcast back in April?

No, the gaming landscape changes quickly and whatever they saw in beginning of April, they no longer see in July.  They were able to ship the 3.2m for this quarter so their initial forecast for the quarter stuck but they must have saw that upcoming comps will be difficult, especially this quarter with no game equal to Spiderman.  Whatever combination of what they thought they would ship from October to March won't be able to make up that deficit, hence the lower forecast.



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Intrinsic on 30 July 2019

So just to be sure...

VGC is two weeks ahead from when the PS4 should have shipped 100M, and saying there is around 3M PS4s in the channels?

And by the same time, Nintendo Switch had shipped 36.8M and VGC is showing only like 600k in channels?

Am I missing something here?

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 30 July 2019

thismeintiel on 30 July 2019
zorg1000 said:
thismeintiel said:

Hardly. The Switch Lite doesn't come out until September. And it wasn't even announced until July. All of these results are up until June 30th. Nintendo would not be under shipping at this point in time. Maybe in the month leading up to the Lite release but not 3-6 months before.  

As for Sony, they are most likely going one of two ways. Either they are not dropping the price, instead relying on bundling, or they aren't expecting much in the way of a rise in sales with just a $50 permanent cut this year.

I'm not talking solely about the Lite, I'm also talking about the improved sku with better battery life that is replacing the current model and releases in August. They are absolutely trying to lower the amount of stock of the current model.

Both of those things would have been factored in with the initial FY forcast, the most likely conclusion is that the Q1 sell through was lower than expected so they adjusted the full year forcast to reflect that. PS4 sell through is down YoY in every region so shipments being flat doesnt make sense unless it was overshipped.

Again, this month would be the month we would see that, not last quarter. Which is probably why we saw the momentary out of stock for the Switch at a few places.  We also don't know if the the new Switch will replace all models at the start or if it will be a slow sprinkling region by region. I believe, so far, only Japan is confirmed.

We don't have actual numbers for every region, so it's impossible to tell if that is the case. I do know there is a limit to what stores will take. They won't take in shelves and shelves worth of product if they know they already have shelves and shelves of stock to sell. Especially in this slow time of year.



 

Intrinsic on 30 July 2019

I think PS4 sales here is about 1m undertracked. And NS is around 1M overtracked.



Alby_da_Wolf on 30 July 2019
Intrinsic said:
So just to be sure...

VGC is two weeks ahead from when the PS4 should have shipped 100M, and is the saying there is around 3M PS4s in the channels?

And by the same time, Nintendo Switch had shipped 36.8M and VGC is showing only like 600k in channels?

Am I missing something here?

Maybe Sony is planning a price cut in September and letting local warehouses supplies quietly build-up to meet the near future demand boost without revealing too much about its plan.



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TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


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chakkra on 30 July 2019
Intrinsic said:

So just to be sure...

VGC is two weeks ahead from when the PS4 should have shipped 100M, and saying there is around 3M PS4s in the channels?

And by the same time, Nintendo Switch had shipped 36.8M and VGC is showing only like 600k in channels?

Am I missing something here?

Yep. I have been suspecting that PS4 was being undertracked (and Switch a little bit overtracked) for months now. I just didnt want to say anything to not trigger the outrage from the most sensitive members of the community.



zorg1000 on 30 July 2019
thismeintiel said:
zorg1000 said:

I'm not talking solely about the Lite, I'm also talking about the improved sku with better battery life that is replacing the current model and releases in August. They are absolutely trying to lower the amount of stock of the current model.

Both of those things would have been factored in with the initial FY forcast, the most likely conclusion is that the Q1 sell through was lower than expected so they adjusted the full year forcast to reflect that. PS4 sell through is down YoY in every region so shipments being flat doesnt make sense unless it was overshipped.

Again, this month would be the month we would see that, not last quarter. Which is probably why we saw the momentary out of stock for the Switch at a few places.  We also don't know if the the new Switch will replace all models at the start or if it will be a slow sprinkling region by region. I believe, so far, only Japan is confirmed.

We don't have actual numbers for every region, so it's impossible to tell if that is the case. I do know there is a limit to what stores will take. They won't take in shelves and shelves worth of product if they know they already have shelves and shelves of stock to sell. Especially in this slow time of year.

It makes no sense to have something like 2+ million units on shelves at the end of June if you are replacing and discontinuing that model within 2 months, they would slowly get stock down in Q1 so it can be gone by the end of Q2. And yes we do know, the new model is confirmed for America in mid-August, Europe in late August and Japan in early September.

We have enough data from major markets to know that PS4 is comfortably down YoY. I'm willing to listen to theories on why Sony dropped their FY forcast if Q1 wasnt overshipped and sell through wasnt lower than anticipated but all signs point to that being the case.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Geralt99 on 30 July 2019

PS4 has been one hell of a Redemption story for Sony. They had to battle real hard to get to the position they are in today.
A total Domination over its competitors (xbox one and wiiu) and reigning Supreme to once again be the King of console gaming.
Time to steamroll into PS5 with this momentum.
GREATNESS TRULY AWAITS!



Intrinsic on 30 July 2019
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Intrinsic said:
So just to be sure...

VGC is two weeks ahead from when the PS4 should have shipped 100M, and is the saying there is around 3M PS4s in the channels?

And by the same time, Nintendo Switch had shipped 36.8M and VGC is showing only like 600k in channels?

Am I missing something here?

Maybe Sony is planning a price cut in September and letting local warehouses supplies quietly build-up to meet the near future demand boost without revealing too much about its plan.

Even if that were the case, it makes zero sense. We are in July, the first month of the new quarter. Its not like sony are going to suddenly stop shipping consoles for all of this quarter. 

And even if there is a price drop coming, earliest it gets here is in September. Which is at the end of this quarter. So lets say they ship only 2M consoles this quarter (which is extremely low balling it) that will put them at 102M shipped by the end of September. So that is a total of 4.8M in the channels. At VGC current sales rates, which is not going to get better unless there is a price drop, Sony sells around 1.8M this quarter (that's highballing it). So come the next quarter sony will have 3M in the channels.

And that's going into the 3rd quarter where shipments are usually at their highest.



Farsala on 30 July 2019
zorg1000 said:
thismeintiel said:

Again, this month would be the month we would see that, not last quarter. Which is probably why we saw the momentary out of stock for the Switch at a few places.  We also don't know if the the new Switch will replace all models at the start or if it will be a slow sprinkling region by region. I believe, so far, only Japan is confirmed.

We don't have actual numbers for every region, so it's impossible to tell if that is the case. I do know there is a limit to what stores will take. They won't take in shelves and shelves worth of product if they know they already have shelves and shelves of stock to sell. Especially in this slow time of year.

It makes no sense to have something like 2+ million units on shelves at the end of June if you are replacing and discontinuing that model within 2 months, they would slowly get stock down in Q1 so it can be gone by the end of Q2. And yes we do know, the new model is confirmed for America in mid-August, Europe in late August and Japan in early September.

We have enough data from major markets to know that PS4 is comfortably down YoY. I'm willing to listen to theories on why Sony dropped their FY forcast if Q1 wasnt overshipped and sell through wasnt lower than anticipated but all signs point to that being the case.

PS4 still shipped the same YoY so clearly they don't feel like they were down YoY. Sony didn't release sell through either, so going off Vgchartz isn't the best indicator. US and Japan might be down YoY, but that doesn't mean other markets are.

What US being down YoY does tell us is that the holiday season might not be as strong as expected, so Sony could be anticipating shipping 1m less consoles for the whole year, based on US being down so far.