Quantcast
April NPD 2019 thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - April NPD 2019 thread

Ryng_Tolu said:
RolStoppable said:

Switch sold almost twice as many units from January to April 2019 than the 3DS sold from January to April 2013. Momentum is in Switch's favor by a significant margin.

And 3DS at this point of life already had a big pricedrop and a new version... The 4th year will be very interesting to watch.

I think we will see a 250 dollar Switch at some point this year, whether it is a cheaper lite model or a price on the already existing model. One of those will likely happen around the time that Pokemon or Animal Crossing launches. 



Around the Network
RolStoppable said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

And 3DS at this point of life already had a big pricedrop and a new version... The 4th year will be very interesting to watch.

I don't think the fourth year will be interesting. By then the 3DS will be viewed similarly to how the Wii U has been viewed for the better part of the last two years: Simply not good enough to compete in a worthwhile sales comparison, so other consoles will have to be used as measuring stick.

For comparison, here is the US 3DS sales (in millions)

FYE  3/31/2011 FYE 3/31/2012 FYE 3/31/2013 FYE 3/31/2014 FYE 3/31/2015 FYE 3/31/2016
1.32 4.67 4.27 4.33 2.93 2.25

Notable Releases

  • Mario Kart 7 (12/2011)
  • Pokemon X/Y (10/2013)
  • NSMB 2 (8/2012)
  • Super Mario 3D Land (11/2011)
  • Animal Crossing New Leaf (6/2013)
  • Smash Bros 3DS (10/2014)

What's interesting about the 3DS is how it's sales trajectory shoots up very early on and then has a slow decay. It was pretty stagnant in the US for the first three years (3/31/2012 was the first full fiscal year). Moreover, a lot of its games were very front loaded with really only Pokemon and Smash in the latter years. Switch is only now just getting Pokemon and Animal Crossing, both games that will do very well. I think if you compare Switch and 3DS's sales and software, the Switch has more potential.

As an aside, I think you can tell the 3DS was propped up. Usually consoles peek in their 3rd year, but in the US it peeked in the first. This was also when it got a massive price drop. It's clear in hindsight Nintendo was propping that system up. 



Visit my site for more

Known as Smashchu in a former life

VideoGameAccountant said:
RolStoppable said:

I don't think the fourth year will be interesting. By then the 3DS will be viewed similarly to how the Wii U has been viewed for the better part of the last two years: Simply not good enough to compete in a worthwhile sales comparison, so other consoles will have to be used as measuring stick.

For comparison, here is the US 3DS sales (in millions)

FYE  3/31/2011 FYE 3/31/2012 FYE 3/31/2013 FYE 3/31/2014 FYE 3/31/2015 FYE 3/31/2016
1.32 4.67 4.27 4.33 2.93 2.25

Notable Releases

  • Mario Kart 7 (12/2011)
  • Pokemon X/Y (10/2013)
  • NSMB 2 (8/2012)
  • Super Mario 3D Land (11/2011)
  • Animal Crossing New Leaf (6/2013)
  • Smash Bros 3DS (10/2014)

What's interesting about the 3DS is how it's sales trajectory shoots up very early on and then has a slow decay. It was pretty stagnant in the US for the first three years (3/31/2012 was the first full fiscal year). Moreover, a lot of its games were very front loaded with really only Pokemon and Smash in the latter years. Switch is only now just getting Pokemon and Animal Crossing, both games that will do very well. I think if you compare Switch and 3DS's sales and software, the Switch has more potential.

As an aside, I think you can tell the 3DS was propped up. Usually consoles peek in their 3rd year, but in the US it peeked in the first. This was also when it got a massive price drop. It's clear in hindsight Nintendo was propping that system up. 

That's not USA, that's the whole America.



Ryng_Tolu said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

For comparison, here is the US 3DS sales (in millions)

FYE  3/31/2011 FYE 3/31/2012 FYE 3/31/2013 FYE 3/31/2014 FYE 3/31/2015 FYE 3/31/2016
1.32 4.67 4.27 4.33 2.93 2.25

Notable Releases

  • Mario Kart 7 (12/2011)
  • Pokemon X/Y (10/2013)
  • NSMB 2 (8/2012)
  • Super Mario 3D Land (11/2011)
  • Animal Crossing New Leaf (6/2013)
  • Smash Bros 3DS (10/2014)

What's interesting about the 3DS is how it's sales trajectory shoots up very early on and then has a slow decay. It was pretty stagnant in the US for the first three years (3/31/2012 was the first full fiscal year). Moreover, a lot of its games were very front loaded with really only Pokemon and Smash in the latter years. Switch is only now just getting Pokemon and Animal Crossing, both games that will do very well. I think if you compare Switch and 3DS's sales and software, the Switch has more potential.

As an aside, I think you can tell the 3DS was propped up. Usually consoles peek in their 3rd year, but in the US it peeked in the first. This was also when it got a massive price drop. It's clear in hindsight Nintendo was propping that system up. 

That's not USA, that's the whole America.

Good point, but sadly Nintendo doesn't break out country. Seeing as America is the most prosperous nation in the Americas and has a population larger than the next most prosperous country (Canada), I think the data would still be representative of the US.



Visit my site for more

Known as Smashchu in a former life

Chart time!


The PS4 and XBO both have their worst April performances to date. The XBO was actually only down 3.6% from the previous worst April for the system (2017), probably due to the hardware deals last month. Meanwhile the PS4 sold about 15% fewer units this April than in its previous worst April (2015); it is still worth mentioning that the massive drop from last April was because last April had God of War. Still, both systems are continuing their post-peak decline, with both having their worst Jan.-April showings to date.

The Switch is continuing its hot streak, having continued sales growth over last year despite no price cuts and no new hardware models. It is so far up 29.4% from last year for the Jan.-April period, a slight improvement as Q1 was up only (28.6%). April by itself saw a YoY increase of 32.7%, the best of any month this year to date. In fact, while it was once running about on par with the PS4, it is now outpacing the PS4. If it keeps this up, and gets a huge boost from Pokemon Sword & Shield, we could see well over 7 million units sold this year, possibly close to 8M. The last time any console sold over 7M units in a single year was the 360's performance in 2011. If the Switch can manage at least 7.3M units this year, it would be the fourth-best year for any home console in the U.S. for the past four generations. For reference, the current Top 5 years are:

Wii (2008): 10.17M
Wii (2009): 9.59M
PS2 (2002): 8.58M
360 (2011): 7.28M
PS1 (1998): 7.11M

It's possible, perhaps likely, that NES may have sold more than 7M units in the U.S. in a single year, and may have done so more than once (probably in 1989, maybe also in '88 & '90), but with no clear sales data (only shipments to "The Americas" region) it's impossible to know exactly how much it sold.

7+ million would be well ahead of the current record-holder for the current generation, which is the PS4, which sold 5.74M in 2015 thanks mainly to a strong holiday season showing that year. However, if we include handhelds it would be well behind the DS, which smashed all sorts of records, including a stellar 2009 where it sold nearly 11.2M units, including over a million alone in April (the DSi's launch month), making it the only system to make a seven-digit sales figure in a non-holiday month. Still, comparing anything to the DS is kind of an unfair comparison, and by all objective standards the Switch is one of Nintendo's most successful systems.

More charts to come later.



Around the Network
chakkra said:

Well, according to the NPD Tool the X1 should be on 1st place, but I totally doubt that to be the case, so let me put it on 2nd place.

[NSW] 210k
[XB1] 170k
[PS4] 140k

Well, the Tool completely threw me off on the X1 numbers.  But at least I was close enough on the others so, not that bad I would say.



chakkra said:
chakkra said:

Well, according to the NPD Tool the X1 should be on 1st place, but I totally doubt that to be the case, so let me put it on 2nd place.

[NSW] 210k
[XB1] 170k
[PS4] 140k

Well, the Tool completely threw me off on the X1 numbers.  But at least I was close enough on the others so, not that bad I would say.

Well, at least we have a better idea of how much of an impact large, short-lived, non-holiday spikes have on the final numbers.



wombat123 said:
chakkra said:

Well, the Tool completely threw me off on the X1 numbers.  But at least I was close enough on the others so, not that bad I would say.

Well, at least we have a better idea of how much of an impact large, short-lived, non-holiday spikes have on the final numbers.

Agreed



More charts!





With the PS4 & XBO both having weaker Year 6s than those of their immediate predecessors, it'll be interesting to see what their legs will be like in the future, and if their combined sales will stay ahead of combined PS3+360 sales. Of course, it is worth pointing out that the PS3's 2012 followed a $50 price cut that was issued in August 2011, and as a result the PS3 actually had a smaller drop than the 360 for most of 2012. The PS3 was to date only the second system to receive a price cut in Year 5 or later, the first being the PS2. It remains to be seen if the PS4 and/or XBO will join them in that distinction.

More charts available upon request.



Sony 1st party games (NPD):

  1. Marvel's Spider-Man (23 days) : +2.6 million (include digital)
  2. God Of War 2018 (16 days) : ~1.9 million (include digital & bundles)
  3. God Of War III (19 days) : ~1.15 million
  4. Horizon Zero Dawn (33 days) : +1 million (include digital)
  5. The Last Of Us (24 days) : ~985K (+1 million with digital)
  6. Uncharted 4 A Thief's End (19 days) : ~828K (879K include bundles & +1 millions with digital)
  7. Days Gone (9 days)
  8. God Of War II (26 days) : ~833K
  9. Uncharted 3 Drake's Deception (28 days) : ~700K (838K include bundles)