3DS numbers are not at all a "safe bet" if it's not replaced too early; unless Nintendo fuck up to a degree almost never before seen in this industry, Switch is going to blow passed 3DS numbers easily.

3DS is going to sell less than 80 million lifetime. Switch is tracking significantly ahead of it despite being $300 when 3DS was $170 at this point, and not having had a hardware revision yet. As long as it's not sabotaged, Switch will pass 100 million lifetime.

Well it was like that for those of us in Europe for over 2 decades with all platforms as we also missed many PS1 games as well it's only around 2005 when things began to resemble what we know today, localisation was still in early stages back in the 90s so more complex games would often miss EU due to all the different languages.

Also I think Nintendo is ACTUALLY entering china this year.
It's just that they don't know how much it will sell

If comparing tracking is your argument, why would it pass 100 million, if it's tracking below the Wii? Significantly below, too, since Wii did almost 26m in 2009 FY. Unless you mean the Wii was sabotaged somehow, which is eh...

Besides, the 3DS was an unique slow burner as far as modern Nintendo hardware goes. It sold more than a third of its lifetime sales after four fiscal years in the market. Don't count with the egg before it hatches etc.

Slow burner?

3DS was very frontloaded, by end of 2014, it was already at 49M, which is already 2/3 of the total sales. What happened afterwards, was that  during 2015-2018, sales didn't really budge, and the 3DS sold about 7M a year in that period. But in those 4 years, it just about equaled the 2012-2013 sales. And that's with numerous hardware updated in that period (2DS, New 3DS XL, 2DS XL), so those 7M a year are nothing to write home about.

The reason why the 3DS was selling about the same over the years was just lack of competition, both from Sony and from a successor. 3DS was 7 years on center stage of handhelds, and until now if you consider the Switch not portable enough. And since Sony doesn't seem to give the Vita a successor, chances are that the Switch will be in a similar position, whoever wants gaming on the go pretty much has to choose the Switch until Nintendo brings a successor. In other words, the Switch also will have a long sales tail, and not a sales crash like the Wii.

Switch might not be able to fully keep up with the Wii, but is already largely distancing the 3DS and will sell longer than the Wii; the Wii's advantage is in it's last growth year, starting next year Wii sales will start to drop, and the Switch will be eating up the Wii's advantage over the course of 2-3 years.

Very impressed with how well the Switch is doing, despite not meeting the hardware goal of 20 million for the FY. The software sales is pretty incredible and the percentages indicate that the software will only continue to grow unless something drastic happens, both in the physical and digital aspects on the platform. This will bold well for them moving forward, so as long as they can maintain momentum and continue improving the service and all that.

The Wii was cut short early when Nintendo effectively abandoned it after 2010 when development was moved to 3DS and Wii U. There's no reason for them to do the same with Switch as they no longer have to worry about supporting two different product lines. As such, the Switch will likely have significantly better legs than the Wii beyond Year 4.

3DS had good legs due to decent performance in all 3 regions. The Switch will blast 3DS in the Americas but fall behind in Japan. Let's compare Switch and 3DS, equal quarters.

Switch is 14.01m America, 8.23m Japan, and 12.50m Others. 34.74m Total

3DS was 10.26m America (38.7% of Current sales), 11.54m Japan (45.8%), and 9.29m (39.5%) Others. 31.09m (41.4%) Total.

Switch has a 3.65m lead. 3DS only shipped 12m next FY, while Nintendo predicts 18m for Switch. Clearly Switch will widen the lead.

As you can see at this point in its life (March 31, 2013), the 3DS has sold ~41.4% of its total sales. Its highest proportion of sales was due to frontloaded sales in Japan at 45.8%. I think Japan sales are usually frontloaded though, with the Switch lagging far behind in Japan but far ahead in America and Others. I think we could make a guess and assume some of the % that the Switch has sold so far of its LTD.

For example if we go with 37/40/39. Then we get 37.9m America, 20.5m Japan, and 32.05m Others. Giving 90.45m Total sales. Personally, I think that is a bit strong. At 90.45m it outsells the 3DS by 14m.

Switch is still at launch price while 3DS had already had a price cut at this point though the former is still in console price territory while 3DS not only had a price cut but also the XL version already released.

I hope Nintendo price cuts /redesigns the Switch as often as the 3DS, but don't expect many. I think they might only do it once.