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Global Hardware 16 March 2019

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DonFerrari said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

To reach those 3-4M then Switch may not outsell the PS4 by more than 1-2M through October, and sell on par in November, as the 2M gap in December will certainly happen again.

I seriously doubt that to be the case, even with a pricecut for the PS4 and no pricecut or revision for the Switch.

Switch is selling without any releases on par with the PS4 with big releases (like, The Division 2 this week for instance). This can go on until Super Mario Maker 2, where Nintendo starts shifting into higher gear this year. Come summer, and the slew of Switch releases and nothing big on PS4 side will make the gap grow pretty fast during summer and fall, before the PS4 getting trashed by the Switch during the holidays.

Sorry but a sequel of The Division isn't a big game or something that pushes HW up for any notable amount. Smash and Let's go tail push more HW than it. I would say that Oddissey and Zelda as evergreen they seem to be also push more than The Division 2.

Sony doesn't get much bigger than that this year anymore by the looks of it. So, by comparison with the rest of the releases, yes, it is a big game release.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
DonFerrari said:

Sorry but a sequel of The Division isn't a big game or something that pushes HW up for any notable amount. Smash and Let's go tail push more HW than it. I would say that Oddissey and Zelda as evergreen they seem to be also push more than The Division 2.

Sony doesn't get much bigger than that this year anymore by the looks of it. So, by comparison with the rest of the releases, yes, it is a big game release.

Days Gone is a bigger game, Sekiro and DMC5 were much bigger game also as new acclaimed IP and first in the gen. There is good chance of Death Stranding, TLOU2 and Tsushijima launching this year.

Anyway you are basically comparing regular weeks from both System but consider one as PS4 at max due to a game that doesn't really push HW against Switch at minimum because it doesn't have games. And that imho isn't the truth, the truth is that when we see all weeks since start of january both systems have been quite close to one another.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Sony doesn't get much bigger than that this year anymore by the looks of it. So, by comparison with the rest of the releases, yes, it is a big game release.

Days Gone is a bigger game, Sekiro and DMC5 were much bigger game also as new acclaimed IP and first in the gen. There is good chance of Death Stranding, TLOU2 and Tsushijima launching this year.

Anyway you are basically comparing regular weeks from both System but consider one as PS4 at max due to a game that doesn't really push HW against Switch at minimum because it doesn't have games. And that imho isn't the truth, the truth is that when we see all weeks since start of january both systems have been quite close to one another.

Division was an example.

PS4 release schedule

January 18-Ace Combat 7

January 25-Resident Evil 2

January 29-Kingdom Hearts

February 4-Apex Legends

February 15-Jump Force

February 15-Far Cry: New Dawn

February 15-Metro Exodus

February 22-Anthem

March 8-Devil May Cry 5

March 15-The Division 2

Switch release schedule

January 11-New Super Mario Bros. Deluxe

If Switch has sold on par/better than PS4 in a time where it's going through a bit of a dry spell versus PS4 getting notable releases nearly every week than the gap will be pretty notable later this year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Days Gone is a bigger game, Sekiro and DMC5 were much bigger game also as new acclaimed IP and first in the gen. There is good chance of Death Stranding, TLOU2 and Tsushijima launching this year.

Anyway you are basically comparing regular weeks from both System but consider one as PS4 at max due to a game that doesn't really push HW against Switch at minimum because it doesn't have games. And that imho isn't the truth, the truth is that when we see all weeks since start of january both systems have been quite close to one another.

Division was an example.

PS4 release schedule

January 18-Ace Combat 7

January 25-Resident Evil 2

January 29-Kingdom Hearts

February 4-Apex Legends

February 15-Jump Force

February 15-Far Cry: New Dawn

February 15-Metro Exodus

February 22-Anthem

March 8-Devil May Cry 5

March 15-The Division 2

Switch release schedule

January 11-New Super Mario Bros. Deluxe

If Switch has sold on par/better than PS4 in a time where it's going through a bit of a dry spell versus PS4 getting notable releases nearly every week than the gap will be pretty notable later this year.

These are certainly much better examples, still that is basically the norm for PS4 if look at it.

Also the bigger games will still release at the end of the year. Anyway as I said I find it hard to happen Switch 20+M and PS4 15-M for this year (next year that is pretty much a given).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Rob5VGC said:
Japan has been the reason why Switch has been selling more than PS4 for weeks this year. It is the difference maker. Take it out or make the Switch numbers equal with PS4 and PS4 would be outselling it every week.

Note: I don't care for the PS4. Just stating the obvious that this is more impressive for PS4 with how old it is.

The problem with that logic is that it is not different than me saying, "well if you take europe out and only look at US, the Switch is constantly ahead of PS4 even without Japan."

It is all or nothing, there is no other way.  Yes it is impressive how well the PS4 is doing going into its 6th year, but that does not change the fact that the Switch is normally ahead of it this year.  You say you are not pro PS4, but you comment is one that would only be made by someone who is teying to downplay Switch sales as it is irrelevant information.



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

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DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

Division was an example.

PS4 release schedule

January 18-Ace Combat 7

January 25-Resident Evil 2

January 29-Kingdom Hearts

February 4-Apex Legends

February 15-Jump Force

February 15-Far Cry: New Dawn

February 15-Metro Exodus

February 22-Anthem

March 8-Devil May Cry 5

March 15-The Division 2

Switch release schedule

January 11-New Super Mario Bros. Deluxe

If Switch has sold on par/better than PS4 in a time where it's going through a bit of a dry spell versus PS4 getting notable releases nearly every week than the gap will be pretty notable later this year.

These are certainly much better examples, still that is basically the norm for PS4 if look at it.

Also the bigger games will still release at the end of the year. Anyway as I said I find it hard to happen Switch 20+M and PS4 15-M for this year (next year that is pretty much a given).

There may be better examples, but The Division 2 was the biggest of the bunch this week, and it certainly also helped that it got some tailwind from DMC 5. But, yeah, like Zorg said, it's just an example.

Switch currently competes against a PS4 with all those game releases with nothing and still come out on top most of the time. What do you think will be the situation in Summer and Fall when the positions are switched around and Switch is getting all the games, but not the PS4?



DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

Division was an example.

PS4 release schedule

January 18-Ace Combat 7

January 25-Resident Evil 2

January 29-Kingdom Hearts

February 4-Apex Legends

February 15-Jump Force

February 15-Far Cry: New Dawn

February 15-Metro Exodus

February 22-Anthem

March 8-Devil May Cry 5

March 15-The Division 2

Switch release schedule

January 11-New Super Mario Bros. Deluxe

If Switch has sold on par/better than PS4 in a time where it's going through a bit of a dry spell versus PS4 getting notable releases nearly every week than the gap will be pretty notable later this year.

These are certainly much better examples, still that is basically the norm for PS4 if look at it.

Also the bigger games will still release at the end of the year. Anyway as I said I find it hard to happen Switch 20+M and PS4 15-M for this year (next year that is pretty much a given).

The YoY decline will continue at a similar rate in Q2. Days Gone has the potential to be a solid system seller but I doubt it comes close to what God of War did last April. May has Rage 2 & Crash Racing in June vs Detroit & The Crew 2 so expect those those months to be down as well.

What big games are confirmed for the 2nd half of the year? The annual sports and Call of Duty are coming but their console moving ability gets smaller each year as these will be the 7th entry of those titles.

Some safe bets are Doom 2 from Bethesda vs Fallout 76 last year, Borderlands 3 from Take-Two vs Red Dead 2 last year, Watch Dogs from Ubisoft vs Assassin's Creed last year, Star Wars from EA vs Battlefield V last year, Last of Us 2 from Sony vs Spiderman last year.

Let's say it's a tie overall when it comes to big games in the 2nd half of the year, that likely means a notable decline as it's harder for titles to sell consoles when you get late into a consoles cycle.

15 million for PS4 requires a ~17% YoY decline and 20m for Switch requires a ~22% increase which shouldn't be too hard to imagine since PS4 is currently down by over 20% and Switch up by about 28%.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
DonFerrari said:

These are certainly much better examples, still that is basically the norm for PS4 if look at it.

Also the bigger games will still release at the end of the year. Anyway as I said I find it hard to happen Switch 20+M and PS4 15-M for this year (next year that is pretty much a given).

There may be better examples, but The Division 2 was the biggest of the bunch this week, and it certainly also helped that it got some tailwind from DMC 5. But, yeah, like Zorg said, it's just an example.

Switch currently competes against a PS4 with all those game releases with nothing and still come out on top most of the time. What do you think will be the situation in Summer and Fall when the positions are switched around and Switch is getting all the games, but not the PS4?

We continue to compare apples with oranges, and this will keep going for ever.  PS4 is an old Home Console, Switch a relatevely new portable from Nintendo. Can people realize that it is silly to compare sales of PS4 and Switch in 2019 and 2020 ? This is much more silly than reiterating what I have just said; Switch is the new Nintendo gimmick, it belongs to its own generation, and it's not even competing directly with Playstation, as it offers a completely different game experience, and absolutely almost nothing new to play lately;  it can sell very good just because of the hardware, it is considered a Toy by many american people who are buying it for their kids. Parents can play together with kids, and many people do not even have enough time to sit on a comfortable sofa and play videogames.  Some can just play in their spare time, during the lunch break, or between lessons at school or University.  In a place like Japan it is a lot related to their life style and "Social side".  Is it so important to waste pages and pages about the amount of gap Switch and PS4 will have in 2019 ?  1M, 2M, 3M, 4M ?  Are you playing "selling numbers" or Videogames ?  I do play videogames, and everytime I turn on my PS4, I don't know what to play because there are so many new Great games, I'm not kidding, it can take 10 minutes before being able to choose the Game to play. My Switch is collecting dust, there is nothig to play, and I sincerely do not care about Japanes sales figures; I'm from Italy and I do play videogames.  What about you? (in general, not referring to you in particular). 

For the Gap between the two, it depends on PS4 price cut; the price will be cut to $249 ? $199 ? And when, around E3 Time, or 1st of September ? And what about a price cut for Switch or a new revision ? Do we have a crystal ball ? I do not have one personally, so I prefer to not waste my time giving figures I have no idea, 'cause they depends upon factors we don't know yet. I personally prefer to play Video Games, and now it's time to go back to Sekiro ;)

Last edited by Nate4Drake - on 31 March 2019

”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

Division was an example.

PS4 release schedule

January 18-Ace Combat 7

January 25-Resident Evil 2

January 29-Kingdom Hearts

February 4-Apex Legends

February 15-Jump Force

February 15-Far Cry: New Dawn

February 15-Metro Exodus

February 22-Anthem

March 8-Devil May Cry 5

March 15-The Division 2

Switch release schedule

January 11-New Super Mario Bros. Deluxe

If Switch has sold on par/better than PS4 in a time where it's going through a bit of a dry spell versus PS4 getting notable releases nearly every week than the gap will be pretty notable later this year.

These are certainly much better examples, still that is basically the norm for PS4 if look at it.

Also the bigger games will still release at the end of the year. Anyway as I said I find it hard to happen Switch 20+M and PS4 15-M for this year (next year that is pretty much a given).

I would think 20 million for switch is much more likely to happen this year than next 



SpokenTruth said:
Rob5VGC said:
Japan has been the reason why Switch has been selling more than PS4 for weeks this year. It is the difference maker. Take it out or make the Switch numbers equal with PS4 and PS4 would be outselling it every week.

Note: I don't care for the PS4. Just stating the obvious that this is more impressive for PS4 with how old it is.

Europe has been the reason why PS4 has been selling more than Switch for weeks this year. It is the difference maker. Take it out or make the PS4 numbers equal with Switch and Switch would be outselling it every week.

See how bad that argument is now?

There are several versions of this argument:

- the only reason Switch is ahead is because of Japan.

- the only reason PS4 is ahead if because of Europe

- the only reason PS4 isn't ahead is because of the US buying Xbox

...

I'd say, given how poorly the Xbox does in EU and JP, the last one is probably the most impactful one. Yet noone talks about it, EU is the big bad outlier buying PS4... right. US is the outlier with buying Xbox.