So, the new week-long Morning consult poll finally came out, which allows us to compare the candidates from before and after the second debate:

Biden: 33% ±0

Booker: 3% ±0

Buttigieg: 5% ±0

Harris: 9% -3

O'Rourke: 3% ±0

Sanders: 20% +2

Warren: 14% +1

Yang: 2% ±0

So yeah, Biden didn't budge, but Bernie "I wrote the damn bill!" Sanders crawls closer to him

It's also interesting that Bernie gained more than Warren while the other polls indicate more the reverse, that Warren is gaining more than Sanders right now.

Yeah, I doubt that the republicans will loose some places like Utah.

But just the prospect of Texas becoming too close to call is disastrous for the republicans. If they loose Texas somewhere down in the future, which should happen at this rate if nothing happens (Texas is getting more urbanized, benefiting the democrats, and the large and growing latino population is also much more likely to vote democrats), they loose almost any chance of getting elected for president, as most of the other republican states just don't have enough inhabitants to make up for that loss.

In other words, the Republicans will need to reinvent themselves down the line. Maybe the next generation, which is slowly pouring into the party, will do this. But I fear for them that boomers and silents will resist that change until they're gone or irrelevant to the count anymore.

The key as to what's realistic is to look at what states Trump is currently polling underwater in by a margin of greater than 5 points because if it's less than 5 points, the difference can easily be made up by third party candidates or else it could just be a fluke. Trump's margin of dissaproval is small enough in the states of Utah, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and probably Iowa too to suggest that he'll probably wind up carrying all those states once you factor in third party candidates. BUT what you're left with even after mentally reassigning all those states to the Trump camp is still enough for the hypothetical Democratic candidate to win, but barely, because the polling here suggests the Democrat candidate is likely to carry key Midwestern states like Michigan and Wisconsin that Trump won in 2016.

The most realistic scenario, I believe, is that the Democratic nominee against Trump would, as things presently stand, get 279 electoral votes to Trump's 259. However, Pennsylvania's margin of Trump disapproval is worryingly close and if Pennsylvania winds up going with Trump again, it's over.

The reality of the matter is that most presidents do win re-election because people are biased in favor of the familiar. It says something by itself that Trump would probably lose the election to any of the top three leading Democratic candidates if it were held today hence. That fact alone tells you just how unusually bad of a president he's been.

Hickenlooper is considering about retreating from the presidential race and running for Senate in Colorado instead, a seat that's currently held by republicans.

Yang hit 200 donors and Delaney said his time to shine will come once more people drop.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/john-hickenloopers-presidential-campaign-is-over-can-he-flip-a-senate-seat-instead/

He'll probably run for senate now. People are quoting where he said he didn't want to be a senator, but that's dumb. Tons of people in the current field said they weren't running and didn't want to run for president, then did. It's a fundraising thing. You don't even verbally hint you're running until you are so that you don't run any risk of breaking campaign finance laws by being considered campaigning before it's official. He'll run for the senate seat, and he'll definitely win the primary, and almost certainly the general as well. Say hello to Senator Hickenlooper.

Harris and Fox national polls that recently came out.

National HarrisX/@ScottWRasmussen Tracking Poll (8/12-15):
Biden 28%
Sanders 14%
Warren 12%
Harris 8%
Buttigieg 3%
O'Rourke 3%
Yang 3%
Booker 2%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%
Hickenlooper 1%
Bennet 1%
de Blasio 1%
Sestak 1%
Steyer 1%

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 16, 2019

#New #National @FoxNewsPoll (8/11-13):
Biden 31%
Warren 20%
Sanders 10%
Harris 8%
Booker 3%
Buttigieg 3%
Yang 3%
Klobuchar 2%
O'Rourke 2%
Castro 1%
de Blasio 1%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 15, 2019

This. The Democratic candidate needs to focus on the midwest, Pennsylvania,  and Arizona. Maybe Florida if the criminal justice amendment is in effect. 

Trump needs to hold the midwest. I don't think he'll be able to win Michigan because the black vote will probably come out more in 2020. He might be able to hold Iowa and Minnesota. To expand his electoral map hw can probably go hard in New Hampshire, and maybe Nevada. 

Harris is pretty twitchy, especially on Biden's numbers. I prefer to look there on long-term evolution of the points than just a single poll. But the current trend is mostly Sanders slightly down, Pete slightly down while Warren and Yang are trending upwards.

As for the Fox News poll, that's less than 500 likely voters, so too small a sample size in my opinion to be substantial.

Biden is up by double digits in Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania etc. against Trump, and 5 - 10 in Florida, North Carolina.

Be safe, be smart. Abandon your delusional candidates and worries, and join in Diamond Joe's Cruise to the White House.

... what? Do you want a revolution, instead? Well, bit the bullet and help elect Trump for another four years. There's your revolution, right there.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/obama-reportedly-warned-biden-about-2020-you-dont-have-to-do-this-joe?via=twitter_page