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Will Mario Maker 2 become a 10+ million seller?

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I predict it will sell...

Less than 10 million 22 20.56%
 
Over 10 million 85 79.44%
 
Total:107
MasonADC said:
Mnementh said:

NSMBUD was already released earlier this year and reportedly already outsold it's WiiU counterpart. So 2D Mario is present. Also I'm not sure if Mario Maker is exactly the same niche. It appeals to people that enjoy user-generated content, professional level design and coherent game with themes and all seem to be a bit different (although admittedly there might be overlap between both user-groups). So no, it will not sell 10 million on 2D-Mario account.

That said though, it might be possible for NSMBUD to sell 10M, is sold 5.6M on WiiU, and earlier entries on DS and Wii sold over 20M each and on 3DS over 10 million. It might still be more likely for a complete new NSMB to sell over 10 million, but the port may have a chance to clear it. But not Mario Maker.

NSMBU on Wii U sold 5 million units, so the switch version hasn’t outsold it yet. Mario maker appeals to the same casual crowd as NSMBU, and even more so to a hardcore crowd, and there is absolutely no way NSMBU outsells Mario maker 2 

Sorry, I wrote that wrong. I meant early reports indicate the Switch version sells a lot stronger, about 25%-50% more. Which is in line with other titles that made it over from WiiU. So either way, with NSMBUD the 2D-mario title is available and is adopted by the consumer.

Wyrdness said:
Mnementh said:
According to VGC Super Mario Maker sold 3.45 million copies on WiiU and 3.23 million on 3DS (most of the owners of the two versions are probably the same). Given, with digital sales on WiiU might be at 4 million. But selling more double and half in the next installment seems a bit much.

For comparison: VGC has Splatoon at 4.71 million, Nintendo reported Splatoon 2 at 8.27 million copies end of December. So a software that was a new IP on WiiU like Mario Maker, that has sold more on WiiU and got like Mario Maker an expanded sequel. Yet, it failed to reach 10M. And it seems unlikely Splatoon will get there, 2M left is a big chunk of sales to make.

So no, I think it is unlikely Mario Maker 2 will reach 10 million. It is very likely it will sell more than 5 million, it may even double sales, but 10M seems to far out of reach.

Splatoon 2 has been selling consistently since it released and sells 600k a quarter it'll cross 10m this year you've completely ignored the legs these games have.

You are right, I looked and according to VGC Splatoon 2 made barely below 3M in 2018, it's second year. 2M in the next years seems possible in the light of that.

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Mnementh said:

NSMBUD was already released earlier this year and reportedly already outsold it's WiiU counterpart. So 2D Mario is present. Also I'm not sure if Mario Maker is exactly the same niche. It appeals to people that enjoy user-generated content, professional level design and coherent game with themes and all seem to be a bit different (although admittedly there might be overlap between both user-groups). So no, it will not sell 10 million on 2D-Mario account.

That said though, it might be possible for NSMBUD to sell 10M, is sold 5.6M on WiiU, and earlier entries on DS and Wii sold over 20M each and on 3DS over 10 million. It might still be more likely for a complete new NSMB to sell over 10 million, but the port may have a chance to clear it. But not Mario Maker.

Mario Maker will be drawing from two install bases: Wii U and 3DS.  For that reason I am thinking it will sell more like Smash Bros than Splatoon.  Smash Bros did extremely well, because it is getting both Wii U and 3DS fans of Smash Bros. 

I am not in the boat with the two userbases. I strongly think there is a lot of overlap between the purchasers of the two platform versions. Look at Smash Bros for instance, which had also two versions on WiiU and 3DS. But with the overlap I think you can't just add that. That said, Mario Maker and Smash probably will sell the combined sales of their predecessors on WiiU and 3DS, but not because their userbase adds up, but because all titles sell a lot stronger on Switch than 3DS and WiiU. 10 million is unlikely for Mario Maker. Let's see first then Splatoon get's there. That had sold stronger on WiiU than Mario Maker. So I expect Mario Maker Switch to lag behind Splatoon 2.

newwil7l said:
Mnementh said:
According to VGC Super Mario Maker sold 3.45 million copies on WiiU and 3.23 million on 3DS (most of the owners of the two versions are probably the same). Given, with digital sales on WiiU might be at 4 million. But selling more double and half in the next installment seems a bit much.

For comparison: VGC has Splatoon at 4.71 million, Nintendo reported Splatoon 2 at 8.27 million copies end of December. So a software that was a new IP on WiiU like Mario Maker, that has sold more on WiiU and got like Mario Maker an expanded sequel. Yet, it failed to reach 10M. And it seems unlikely Splatoon will get there, 2M left is a big chunk of sales to make.

So no, I think it is unlikely Mario Maker 2 will reach 10 million. It is very likely it will sell more than 5 million, it may even double sales, but 10M seems to far out of reach.

Somebody doesn't seem to know how Nintendo legs work. Splatoon will easily cross 10 million. Probably by this year.

Yeah, looked it up and it seems likely Splatoon has the 10M in it.

curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:
No. It's a level editor and will rely on usergenerated content. Most fans of 2D Mario will skip the game because they want professional content AND coherent world building, that's why the included professional levels in Super Mario Maker 2 won't be good enough.

 

Mnementh said:

NSMBUD was already released earlier this year and reportedly already outsold it's WiiU counterpart. So 2D Mario is present. Also I'm not sure if Mario Maker is exactly the same niche. It appeals to people that enjoy user-generated content, professional level design and coherent game with themes and all seem to be a bit different (although admittedly there might be overlap between both user-groups). So no, it will not sell 10 million on 2D-Mario account.

That said though, it might be possible for NSMBUD to sell 10M, is sold 5.6M on WiiU, and earlier entries on DS and Wii sold over 20M each and on 3DS over 10 million. It might still be more likely for a complete new NSMB to sell over 10 million, but the port may have a chance to clear it. But not Mario Maker.

So basically, the idea is that due to its reliance on user-created levels, it will not appeal to the primary 2D Mario audience who want a full-game's worth of professional levels ready-made for them? Won't the user-creation aspect draw in an additional audience of its own though, spreading through the showing off of custom levels on Youtube and such in much the same way as Minecraft, where kids will see some crazy user-created level and want to try it for themselves?

I dunno about the appeal or not of user-created content. All I can say is: NSMBU sold 5.6M on WiiU (physical according to VGC) and Mario Maker only 3.5M. So it seems, customers prefered the tailored experience over user-generated content. In conclusion I expect NSMBUD to reach 10M first and faster. So far it seems some titles can double their sales on Switch, so it is quite possible for NSMBUD. For Mario Maker doubling sales will not be enough for 10M, it must do more.



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my greatest games: 2017, 2018

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Easiest 10 milion seller since Smash. The game is coming out in year 3 of the Switch with a thriving userbase and an already consolidated comunity for the first Mario Maker, it's going to be BIG

Last edited by Luke888 - on 02 March 2019

I think the original Splatoon vs. original MM is a pretty good analogy. Original Splatoon was more popular on Wii u by a bit. If the sequel on Switch doesn't easily surpass 10m the MM2 may struggle to reach it. If it comfortably surpasses it then using it as a yardstick MM2 has the chance to do so too.
For the record i voted yes, initially without putting too much thought into it.



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curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:
No. It's a level editor and will rely on usergenerated content. Most fans of 2D Mario will skip the game because they want professional content AND coherent world building, that's why the included professional levels in Super Mario Maker 2 won't be good enough.

So basically, the idea is that due to its reliance on user-created levels, it will not appeal to the primary 2D Mario audience who want a full-game's worth of professional levels ready-made for them? Won't the user-creation aspect draw in an additional audience of its own though, spreading through the showing off of custom levels on Youtube and such in much the same way as Minecraft, where kids will see some crazy user-created level and want to try it for themselves?

The audience for usergenerated content is small. The main reason for Minecraft's success is not usergenerated content; it's the adventure in a randomly generated world where the player can do what they want; it's the same basic idea (do what you want) that makes Breath of the Wild sell so well. What users create in Minecraft are not levels, but buildings and other things with the available resources.

8m lifetime would already be a great result for Super Mario Maker 2, but 10m seems so unrealistic considering how games that were about usergenerated content have fared in the past.



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No.

Mario Maker is an insult to real Mario Fans.

Edit: real Mario = '2d Mario' = SMB



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

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Pyro as Bill said:

No.

Mario Maker is an insult to real Mario Fans.

Edit: real Mario = '2d Mario' = SMB

I would like to know why you think this 



No. 7-8 million.



Pyro as Bill said:

No.

Mario Maker is an insult to real Mario Fans.

Edit: real Mario = '2d Mario' = SMB

Mario Maker is a love letter to real Mario Fans.



MasonADC said:
Pyro as Bill said:

No.

Mario Maker is an insult to real Mario Fans.

Edit: real Mario = '2d Mario' = SMB

I would like to know why you think this 

Valve: "We were going to give you Half Life 3 but we decided to let you mod Half Life 2 instead"

Wii Uers: " Amazeballs"

SMB Fans: "Go fuck yourself"

Given that Nintendo is built on Super Mario Bros, some of us expect environments/game-play/soundtracks/production values akin to what it's overhyped, crappy, spinoff (3D Mario) gets.

Neither Mario Kart or SMB get the treatment they deserve compared to the 'fat, crappy controls Mario' that isn't even a real Mario game.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Lryu222 said:
Pyro as Bill said:

No.

Mario Maker is an insult to real Mario Fans.

Edit: real Mario = '2d Mario' = SMB

Mario Maker is a love letter to real Mario Fans.

It's a love letter to the WiiU crowd. It's a dirty diaper to actual fans of Super Mario Bros.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!