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Nintendo Switch in Japan: 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 28 Numbers Posted

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch in Japan: 2018 vs. 2019 - Week 28 Numbers Posted

Bofferbrauer2 said:

But probably stronger than either of those on it's own. So it just needs another big release during that time to get similar results to last year.

Speaking of which, how do the Mario & Sonic at the Olympic games series fare in Japan? Could they bring in at least some of the needed boost to equal last year's sales? How about Luigi's Mansion?

I understand neither of those two is as big as a Pokemon or Smash title, but couldn't they reach a similar effect, when taken together? Especially since I expect the baseline to be somewhat higher from the game releases in late summer.

Luigi's Mansion is a series with growth potential in Japan and its ambiguous release window has been narrowed down from 2019 to Q4 2019, so it's now supposed to release in proximity to Sword/Shield. Pokémon: Let's Go didn't do hot numbers in Japan, so LM3 can match that. Last year's Q4 also had Super Mario Party which sold steadily and it's doubtful that Mario & Sonic can match that, simply because the Sonic IP has hardly any pull in Japan.

In summary, I'd put it like this:

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate > Pokémon Sword/Shield
Luigi's Mansion 3 > Pokémon: Let's Go, Evee/Pikachu!
Super Mario Party > Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games

With LM3 in the same quarter, the lineup is more evenly matched and there's only a small advantage for 2018. Still, this was the scenario without price cut and revision, so a one year older Switch at the original price makes the hardware itself pose a challenge for sales. The more probable scenario is that there will be at least either a price cut or revision, and that makes a year over year comparison favorable for 2019 anyway, regardless of the launch month of LM3.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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lol...Did I say a month ago that the Switch had really started its decline and I was mocked for this opinion.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Amnesia said:
lol...Did I say a month ago that the Switch had really started its decline and I was mocked for this opinion.

Is this because of last weeks' Famitsu numbers which are usually published around about now? I've been looking for them and haven't seen any yet.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

peachbuggy said:
Amnesia said:
lol...Did I say a month ago that the Switch had really started its decline and I was mocked for this opinion.

Is this because of last weeks' Famitsu numbers which are usually published around about now? I've been looking for them and haven't seen any yet.

Even with Yokai 4, the Switch is significantly decreasing in sales. Price cut and/or Switch 2 is necessary to just maintain sales.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Amnesia said:
peachbuggy said:

Is this because of last weeks' Famitsu numbers which are usually published around about now? I've been looking for them and haven't seen any yet.

Even with Yokai 4, the Switch is significantly decreasing in sales. Price cut and/or Switch 2 is necessary to just maintain sales.

Oh. I haven't seen those sales yet. That bad? If so, then agreed about the price cut, in Japan at least.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

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It feels like the Switch revision is one of the worst kept secrets in gaming and many potential buyers in Japan are just waiting for it.



Amnesia said:
peachbuggy said:

Is this because of last weeks' Famitsu numbers which are usually published around about now? I've been looking for them and haven't seen any yet.

Even with Yokai 4, the Switch is significantly decreasing in sales. Price cut and/or Switch 2 is necessary to just maintain sales.

A special deal is being had for the switch which literally starts tomorrow, meaning that Yokai didn’t have a chance to increase hardware. The switch isn’t in a decline, you’ll see that next week 



Amnesia said:
lol...Did I say a month ago that the Switch had really started its decline and I was mocked for this opinion.

Just wait for another week or two then everyone will be laughing at you.



sethnintendo said:
Amnesia said:
lol...Did I say a month ago that the Switch had really started its decline and I was mocked for this opinion.

Just wait for another week or two then everyone will be laughing at you.

Ha !

not at all, no one will remember just.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

RolStoppable said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

But probably stronger than either of those on it's own. So it just needs another big release during that time to get similar results to last year.

Speaking of which, how do the Mario & Sonic at the Olympic games series fare in Japan? Could they bring in at least some of the needed boost to equal last year's sales? How about Luigi's Mansion?

I understand neither of those two is as big as a Pokemon or Smash title, but couldn't they reach a similar effect, when taken together? Especially since I expect the baseline to be somewhat higher from the game releases in late summer.

Luigi's Mansion is a series with growth potential in Japan and its ambiguous release window has been narrowed down from 2019 to Q4 2019, so it's now supposed to release in proximity to Sword/Shield. Pokémon: Let's Go didn't do hot numbers in Japan, so LM3 can match that. Last year's Q4 also had Super Mario Party which sold steadily and it's doubtful that Mario & Sonic can match that, simply because the Sonic IP has hardly any pull in Japan.

In summary, I'd put it like this:

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate > Pokémon Sword/Shield
Luigi's Mansion 3 > Pokémon: Let's Go, Evee/Pikachu!
Super Mario Party > Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games

With LM3 in the same quarter, the lineup is more evenly matched and there's only a small advantage for 2018. Still, this was the scenario without price cut and revision, so a one year older Switch at the original price makes the hardware itself pose a challenge for sales. The more probable scenario is that there will be at least either a price cut or revision, and that makes a year over year comparison favorable for 2019 anyway, regardless of the launch month of LM3.

I know M&S at Olympic Games won't match Super Mario Party but don't you think it will preform better than previous entries in Japan considering the Olympics are being held in Japan?  Heck didn't they have Mario jump out of a pipe at the end of last Olympics?  So the legs might be decent on the M&S game especially if it promoted throughout next year up to the Olympics.