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Predict 2019 Japanese Sales (PS4/Switch Only)

Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict 2019 Japanese Sales (PS4/Switch Only)

With Switch's line-up this year looking so promising for the Japanese market, I'm going to chance it and say Switch could do 4.5 million within Japan in 2019.

With such a crazy high number it would definitely need a price-cut to do it. However if it doesn't and it still manages to come even close at around 4 million, that would still be incredible for the Nintendo Switch in my opinion. Here's hoping, I think Switch deserves it.

Nintendo Switch:

4.5 million - with price cut
4 million - without price cut

PS4:

1.6 million

Last edited by Green098 - on 10 January 2019

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Switch 4.5 million
PS4 1.4 Million



I'd say the early promises shown by the PS4 thanks to MHW probably won't show up this year, so I don't expect much more but a good decline which could be offset by price cut but that might not be the best strategy in the long run.
Meanwhile the Switch might get a bit cheaper and with games like Pokémon Gen 8, Animal Crossing and whatever else we'll have announced, I think it'll get a nice boost.

PS4 : 1,3M-1,4M
Switch : 4,0M-4,25M



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drinkandswim said:
Switch 4.5 million
PS4 1.4 Million

That looks about right to me too.

Switch 4.5m
PS4 1.4m

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 10 January 2019

Switch : 4.5M( Mainline Pokemon, Animal Crossing, FE three houses, DQ11S and hardware revision)
PS4 : 1.5m( Aggressive price cut and free games promotion during the holiday period )



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Switch - 4.0m
PS4 - 1.5m

Revision and/or price cut for Switch will bump its numbers, but I don't expect it to be cheap enough to fully address the handheld market. I expect it to be sold for 25k yen, but 20k yen would be necessary for bigger year over year growth.

A permanent PS4 price cut to 25k yen will result in only a moderate decline for the year. I expect the holiday season to have a special deal once again.



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RolStoppable said:
Switch - 4.0m
PS4 - 1.5m

Revision and/or price cut for Switch will bump its numbers, but I don't expect it to be cheap enough to fully address the handheld market. I expect it to be sold for 25k yen, but 20k yen would be necessary for bigger year over year growth.

A permanent PS4 price cut to 25k yen will result in only a moderate decline for the year. I expect the holiday season to have a special deal once again.

You beat me to it, I'm expecting 4m for Switch & 1.5m for PS4.



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PS4 1.5m
PS5 launch in 2020. Personally I'd prefer 21.



Switch 3,9 Million
PS4 1,45 Million



Switch: 4.35M

PS4: 1.35M

I'm pretty sure the Switch'es baseline will be several K above last year, pretty much not dropping below 40K and half the time selling above 50K, with Pokemon giving a similar boost to holiday sales (less high, but spread over more weeks) as did Smash.

For the PS4, I fear the baseline will drop further and a steep drop incoming 1-2 weeks after KH3 release. PS4 won't get nearly the same boost with KH3 as it got last year with MHW and an even lower baseline means the lines spread out more and more.