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PS4 sales surpass 91.6 million, Spiderman over 9 million

Forums - Sony Discussion - PS4 sales surpass 91.6 million, Spiderman over 9 million

colafitte said:
Farsala said:

I agree, 110m-120m is a safe bet imo. Anything less or more will be difficult to predict.

Something like 12-15M in 2019, 6-9M in 2020 (or similar) and then the end? Because that's the only way PS4 only does 110-120M lifetime...

It depends on Next gen of course.

Consider PS2 it was at like ~112m at PS3 launch. 70% of its sales. The PS2 had great legs and late international launches like in Brazil.

Consider PS3 it was at like ~80m at PS3 launch. 90% of its sales. The PS3 had poor legs.

Now PS4 is at 91.6m. if we assume that is 75% of its sales then it will go on to sell ~120m. 80% would bring it lower, but I went higher due to PS5 not launching yet.

As I said I think 110m-120m is the safe bet. 105m-115m or 115m-125m would be pretty safe too, but a bit more risky. 100m-110m or 120m-130m would be even riskier, and so on and so forth.



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Farsala said:
colafitte said:

Something like 12-15M in 2019, 6-9M in 2020 (or similar) and then the end? Because that's the only way PS4 only does 110-120M lifetime...

It depends on Next gen of course.

Consider PS2 it was at like ~112m at PS3 launch. 70% of its sales. The PS2 had great legs and late international launches like in Brazil.

Consider PS3 it was at like ~80m at PS3 launch. 90% of its sales. The PS3 had poor legs.

Now PS4 is at 91.6m. if we assume that is 75% of its sales then it will go on to sell ~120m. 80% would bring it lower, but I went higher due to PS5 not launching yet.

As I said I think 110m-120m is the safe bet. 105m-115m or 115m-125m would be pretty safe too, but a bit more risky. 100m-110m or 120m-130m would be even riskier, and so on and so forth.

That comparison with PS3...i don't agree. PS4 has ended its 6th holiday season. PS3 in its 6th holiday season was 2011 and PS3 was around 61'1M then. If PS3 ended selling around 87M this means it was around 70% of the total sales back then. So if even PS3 ended selling more than 25M in the following years, it's irrational to expect less for PS4. If PS4 sells 25M more like PS3 it will end around 117M at least. If we consider 71'6M as 70% of the total sales, that means PS4 will end around 130M.

PS4 won't end selling less than 120M in my opinion. There's nothing pointing in that direction.

Edit: The reason PS3 legs were so bad compared to PS2, were among other reasons the fact that PS3 lasted longer until its succesor launched. 

Last edited by colafitte - on 09 January 2019

Kerotan said:
Evilms said:

An interesting comparison between the PS4 and Wii over the years.

Like we always say playstations tend to have better legs then Nintendos. It's why we shouldn't expert switch to outsell the ps4. The ps4 sales have been stable as fook and its why for years the talk of has the ps4 hit it's peak year been nonsense. It doesn't have that traditional big peak and fast decline many products suffer from. 

The Switch has many unknowns compared to previous Nintendo consoles or even just consoles in general. One of those unknowns is will 3DS customers and games  moving to Switch change the dynamics ,this is tied to another unknown exactly how will Nintendo deal with the 3DS going forward , Nintendo Online should also help just like PS4 and XBOX ONE are the entry points to their particular ecosystems so is Switch to Nintendo's.



mjk45 said:
Kerotan said:

Like we always say playstations tend to have better legs then Nintendos. It's why we shouldn't expert switch to outsell the ps4. The ps4 sales have been stable as fook and its why for years the talk of has the ps4 hit it's peak year been nonsense. It doesn't have that traditional big peak and fast decline many products suffer from. 

The Switch has many unknowns compared to previous Nintendo consoles or even just consoles in general. One of those unknowns is will 3DS customers and games  moving to Switch change the dynamics ,this is tied to another unknown exactly how will Nintendo deal with the 3DS going forward , Nintendo Online should also help just like PS4 and XBOX ONE are the entry points to their particular ecosystems so is Switch to Nintendo's.

I agree. I don't think you can just use past data to extrapolate how the Switch will do (though of course it is a starting point) since the hardware is fundamentally quite different to what they (or anyone) have offered in the console space before.



Farsala said:
colafitte said:

Something like 12-15M in 2019, 6-9M in 2020 (or similar) and then the end? Because that's the only way PS4 only does 110-120M lifetime...

It depends on Next gen of course.

Consider PS2 it was at like ~112m at PS3 launch. 70% of its sales. The PS2 had great legs and late international launches like in Brazil.

Consider PS3 it was at like ~80m at PS3 launch. 90% of its sales. The PS3 had poor legs.

Now PS4 is at 91.6m. if we assume that is 75% of its sales then it will go on to sell ~120m. 80% would bring it lower, but I went higher due to PS5 not launching yet.

As I said I think 110m-120m is the safe bet. 105m-115m or 115m-125m would be pretty safe too, but a bit more risky. 100m-110m or 120m-130m would be even riskier, and so on and so forth.

So what or where do you expect the PS4 to be at the launch of the PS5?

For me;

If PS5 releases in March 2020: PS4 2019 (15M) + PS4 2020 (5M) = 111M LTD PS4 sales. In this case I could say its lifetime sales would be hardly any more than 120M

If PS5 releases in Nov 2020: PS4 2019 (15M) + PS4 2020 (12M) = 118M LTD PS4 sales. In this case I can see lifetime sales being around 130M 



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Evilms said:

"The big thing is the Playstation consoles usually have longer legs than Nintendo systems.
Even in 2019, Im expecting 16m+ sold for the year."

 

This is what has made the strength of playstation consoles since ps1, they sell well over time.

For those who doubt the wii numbers it comes from this graph :

 

http://fortune.com/2017/04/21/nintendo-classic-console-sales/

Yep, Nintendo system usually peaking on second or third year with steady drop after. Not sure why some people is expecting Switch to peak in 2020 at over 50% increase over 2018 and drop softly after.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Intrinsic said:
Farsala said:

It depends on Next gen of course.

Consider PS2 it was at like ~112m at PS3 launch. 70% of its sales. The PS2 had great legs and late international launches like in Brazil.

Consider PS3 it was at like ~80m at PS3 launch. 90% of its sales. The PS3 had poor legs.

Now PS4 is at 91.6m. if we assume that is 75% of its sales then it will go on to sell ~120m. 80% would bring it lower, but I went higher due to PS5 not launching yet.

As I said I think 110m-120m is the safe bet. 105m-115m or 115m-125m would be pretty safe too, but a bit more risky. 100m-110m or 120m-130m would be even riskier, and so on and so forth.

So what or where do you expect the PS4 to be at the launch of the PS5?

For me;

If PS5 releases in March 2020: PS4 2019 (15M) + PS4 2020 (5M) = 111M LTD PS4 sales. In this case I could say its lifetime sales would be hardly any more than 120M

If PS5 releases in Nov 2020: PS4 2019 (15M) + PS4 2020 (12M) = 118M LTD PS4 sales. In this case I can see lifetime sales being around 130M 

If we go on a conservative 80% of sales made until launch of PS5. Then it getting 111M by March it would mean 139M, and if by Nov it would get to 147M.

Even if we expect the worse legs like PS3 (don't think it will do it because price cut will be more feasible on PS4) then we get 123M and 131M.

Anyway nothing suggests below 120M at the moment.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:

If we go on a conservative 80% of sales made until launch of PS5. Then it getting 111M by March it would mean 139M, and if by Nov it would get to 147M.

Even if we expect the worse legs like PS3 (don't think it will do it because price cut will be more feasible on PS4) then we get 123M and 131M.

Anyway nothing suggests below 120M at the moment.



DonFerrari said:
Intrinsic said:

If we go on a conservative 80% of sales made until launch of PS5. Then it getting 111M by March it would mean 139M, and if by Nov it would get to 147M.

Even if we expect the worse legs like PS3 (don't think it will do it because price cut will be more feasible on PS4) then we get 123M and 131M.

Anyway nothing suggests below 120M at the moment.

^ yep.

PS4 basically has 120m on lock by now, its hard to imagine it doing any less than that in lifetime sales at this point.



Rumor has it that The Last of Us: Part 2 is releasing in 2019. I think it may release in the fall- around September- about 6 months after Days Gone’s release to give that game some breathing room. If Sony bundles TLOU2 for Black Friday and the holidays at that $199 price point - it’s going to move a ton of consoles!