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Brexit
MrWayne said:

Aren't you aware how crazy the things you say sound?
You're pro Brexit (no deal Brexit?), a huge part why people voted for Brexit was to regain their "sovereignty" but you want to throw away the new gained "sovereignty" by completly deregulate the UK market. The majority of the working class who voted for Brexit would be hurt the most by that.

And why? In order to damp Ireland in smuggle ware, to either force Ireland out of the single market or to let them break the GFA.

seriously what did the Irish do to you, why are you so angry at them?

It really isn't, the UK should use every advantage it has in it's arsenal. The UK should use it's new found sovereignty to wreck both the EU and Ireland in the process in the case of a no deal ...  

In the event of a no deal exit, Britain isn't legally compelled by the EU or Ireland to have it's own goods checked so they will use their only backdoor (Irish border) if they must to access the single market ... (the EU had better be prepared because the UK will be to make sure it's member states go into default) 

As for the working class they'll be fine as long as the backdoor remains open so that they'll sell the cheap goods coming into the UK for a very high markup in the EU since the EU member states can't competitively import these goods at lower rates either because of high tariffs or regulations so they are going to give the EU a taste of their own globalist medicine. In a way, I guess Brexiteers were right that the UK will be like Singapore ... 

The EU either has to cut off it's own hand (UK) or it's entire arm (Ireland) too if it get's infected (no Irish border), HAHAHAHAHAHAHA ...

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Again, what's with all that smuggling nonsense?

Also, not wanting a hard border is becasuse of the Troubles potentially resparking in Northern Ireland and has nothing directly to do with Ireland proper, but the unionists and the nationalists

And, like I said, if a hard Brexit comes, and it's on the best way to get there really, border controls will happen there no matter what. It's actually required under WTO rules.

It has EVERYTHING to do with Ireland if it wants to keep reunification on the table with Northern Ireland. It is because of the nationalist forces in Northern Ireland that Ireland itself has a stake in it all ...

As for the WTO, article 21 states that an exemption can be made for reasons such as national security so the UK can make a strong legal case that it doesn't have to put up a border on their side if they don't want to. The WTO has tons of holes in it and they don't specifically say that a nation needs to police it's border, it just doesn't have to discriminate other nations if it has no trade deals ... 

I agree that a border might be required but this time it's the EU or Ireland that has to draw the line because the UK clearly won't ...  

Bofferbrauer2 said: 

1. What bullshit are you blabbering there?

The UK will, after a hard Brexit, only be able to import through WTO rules. And that means anybody whom the UK wants to import their goods from has a say about it. In fact, it's possible that the UK won't be able to import at all at first as the WTO schedules (the rules by which a country trades) need to be agreed upon by all WTO members, so until there's an agreement there it's possible no trade is possible (though I expect that those who agree on it will go by the schedules, which are the schedules the EU is using for the countries the EU has no trade agreement - all 12 (soon 13) of them. Importing unilaterally is impossible due to WTO's non-discriminatory rules: If the UK doesn't want to control the goods coming in from Ireland, than they can't control the other borders either as everybody under WTO rules needs to be treated equally.

Oh, and every market is somewhat protectionist, every single country has tariffs. In fact, by comparison the tariffs of the EU are rather low and since 2015 tariff barriers on (non-GMO) food had been successively reduced

3. Again, what are you talking about smuggling all the time? Also, keep in mind that the EU is a net exporter as a whole, but the UK is a net importer (especially on food, but by far not the only commodity the UK is importing en masse), so it's rather up to the UK to be concerned about smuggling. But look again what I wrote above about the barriers... Also, what about article 7? Just to quote: Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union is a procedure in the treaties of the European Union (EU) to suspend certain rights from a member state. While rights can be suspended, there is no mechanism to expel a member  so what's you (moot) point anyway?

Yes, a hard border can be avoided by Ireland by leaving the EU and getting back under the UK thumb. But guess what: That's just what they are avoiding for 100 years now. So, again, moot.

Oh, and about the reunification: I'd rather say the UK can soon kiss the UK goodbye, as I don't think the Scots or the Norther Eire (who both vote remain I might add) will want to stay in the UK any much longer, especially not with all the problems a no-deal poses on the population.

1. The UK can abuse a loophole (having it's own import controls) with a backdoor being available (no Irish border) which means far cheaper goods entering inside the EU and they can use article 21 as their defense ... 

3. I talk about smuggling because it's an absolutely important issue and the EU seems to think so too because quite a few of it's member states are afraid as fuck that their economy isn't all that competitive in the global market so they have to resort to putting tariffs or most importantly high regulations on imports. Think about it for a moment what will happen to the EU's agriculture sector if the UK is able to sell cheaper produce to EU consumers ? It's specifically because the EU has a trade surplus with the UK that they should be worried most about smuggling since the UK won't have to buy overpriced European crap and the fact that they can undercut European producers by reselling those imported goods which means that the EU could very well see a trade deficit with the UK instead all the while not being an EU member! (the EU seems to understand this risk unlike you) The UK will be fine with smuggling from the EU since it had to prop up their less productive economy for a while so they aren't going to buy the EU's overpriced crap but the EU on the other hand is going to face a shitstorm if Ireland allows cheap UK imports into it's own market. With Article 7, the EU could in theory suspend Ireland's right to participate in the single market and customs union ... 

@Bold I didn't imply that so that's just a straw man on your part. Ireland will be forced out of the single market and customs because I doubt the EU will tolerate smuggling from the UK ... 

As for your last sentence, the likewise applies to Ireland with the EU SM/CU so why would Northern Ireland want to join a soon to be even poorer nation after no deal when the UK gives it a shit ton of subsidies ? Could Ireland afford Northern Ireland after no deal happens AND when they get the boot from the EU ?  

Pyro as Bill said:

People seem to have forgotten that Ireland only joined the EU because the UK did. They've promised financial aid to Ireland. Unfortunately 80% tariffs on irish beef from the UK will cripple their farming industry.

Ireland has completely misplayed their hand. They could have had re-unification and had someone to pay for it if that's what the Irish government truly wanted.

The UK has no need to place tariffs (it can't anyways as per GFA) on Irish beef when it's overpriced in comparison to South American beef. Both the EU and Ireland will be screaming in agony after no deal once China and the others will come through the backdoor raping their "single market" in the process, LMFAO ...  

"No deal" is an empty ass threat if they don't decide to amputate Ireland as well. If Britain's going to crash out it may as well take the EU market or Irish reunification as a collateral ...  



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fatslob-:O said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Again, what's with all that smuggling nonsense?

Also, not wanting a hard border is becasuse of the Troubles potentially resparking in Northern Ireland and has nothing directly to do with Ireland proper, but the unionists and the nationalists

And, like I said, if a hard Brexit comes, and it's on the best way to get there really, border controls will happen there no matter what. It's actually required under WTO rules.

It has EVERYTHING to do with Ireland if it wants to keep reunification on the table with Northern Ireland. It is because of the nationalist forces in Northern Ireland that Ireland itself has a stake in it all ...

As for the WTO, article 21 states that an exemption can be made for reasons such as national security so the UK can make a strong legal case that it doesn't have to put up a border on their side if they don't want to. The WTO has tons of holes in it and they don't specifically say that a nation needs to police it's border, it just doesn't have to discriminate other nations if it has no trade deals ... 

I agree that a border might be required but this time it's the EU or Ireland that has to draw the line because the UK clearly won't ...  

Bofferbrauer2 said: 

1. What bullshit are you blabbering there?

The UK will, after a hard Brexit, only be able to import through WTO rules. And that means anybody whom the UK wants to import their goods from has a say about it. In fact, it's possible that the UK won't be able to import at all at first as the WTO schedules (the rules by which a country trades) need to be agreed upon by all WTO members, so until there's an agreement there it's possible no trade is possible (though I expect that those who agree on it will go by the schedules, which are the schedules the EU is using for the countries the EU has no trade agreement - all 12 (soon 13) of them. Importing unilaterally is impossible due to WTO's non-discriminatory rules: If the UK doesn't want to control the goods coming in from Ireland, than they can't control the other borders either as everybody under WTO rules needs to be treated equally.

Oh, and every market is somewhat protectionist, every single country has tariffs. In fact, by comparison the tariffs of the EU are rather low and since 2015 tariff barriers on (non-GMO) food had been successively reduced

3. Again, what are you talking about smuggling all the time? Also, keep in mind that the EU is a net exporter as a whole, but the UK is a net importer (especially on food, but by far not the only commodity the UK is importing en masse), so it's rather up to the UK to be concerned about smuggling. But look again what I wrote above about the barriers... Also, what about article 7? Just to quote: Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union is a procedure in the treaties of the European Union (EU) to suspend certain rights from a member state. While rights can be suspended, there is no mechanism to expel a member  so what's you (moot) point anyway?

Yes, a hard border can be avoided by Ireland by leaving the EU and getting back under the UK thumb. But guess what: That's just what they are avoiding for 100 years now. So, again, moot.

Oh, and about the reunification: I'd rather say the UK can soon kiss the UK goodbye, as I don't think the Scots or the Norther Eire (who both vote remain I might add) will want to stay in the UK any much longer, especially not with all the problems a no-deal poses on the population.

1. The UK can abuse a loophole (having it's own import controls) with a backdoor being available (no Irish border) which means far cheaper goods entering inside the EU and they can use article 21 as their defense ... 

3. I talk about smuggling because it's an absolutely important issue and the EU seems to think so too because quite a few of it's member states are afraid as fuck that their economy isn't all that competitive in the global market so they have to resort to putting tariffs or most importantly high regulations on imports. Think about it for a moment what will happen to the EU's agriculture sector if the UK is able to sell cheaper produce to EU consumers ? It's specifically because the EU has a trade surplus with the UK that they should be worried most about smuggling since the UK won't have to buy overpriced European crap and the fact that they can undercut European producers by reselling those imported goods which means that the EU could very well see a trade deficit with the UK instead all the while not being an EU member! (the EU seems to understand this risk unlike you) The UK will be fine with smuggling from the EU since it had to prop up their less productive economy for a while so they aren't going to buy the EU's overpriced crap but the EU on the other hand is going to face a shitstorm if Ireland allows cheap UK imports into it's own market. With Article 7, the EU could in theory suspend Ireland's right to participate in the single market and customs union ... 

@Bold I didn't imply that so that's just a straw man on your part. Ireland will be forced out of the single market and customs because I doubt the EU will tolerate smuggling from the UK ... 

As for your last sentence, the likewise applies to Ireland with the EU SM/CU so why would Northern Ireland want to join a soon to be even poorer nation after no deal when the UK gives it a shit ton of subsidies ? Could Ireland afford Northern Ireland after no deal happens AND when they get the boot from the EU ?  

1. The UK having it's own import controls is just that: import controls. For everything that goes out that way, Ireland will have to set up their own import controls, and until those are set, no trade can go through. The EU is already preparing in Ireland, Calais and Rotterdam for these additional controls, the booths just need to be set up and the goods controlled. The UK is also buying scanners and the like, and planning huge parking lots because the trucks will have to wait their turn

Problem with your Article 21 theory is that it is an agreement, meaning that both the UK and the EU would need to agree on that - and that can still be shot down, especially after calling out the US for using a similar reason for taxing EU steel imports as that would make the EU and the UK look like massive hypocrites. So, not really an option.

@bolded: Thanks for the joke, I really needed a good laugh.

In case you don't know, the UK is importing vast amounts of foods and only exporting very little of it, though I agree that most of those go to Ireland. Much more likely will be that the UK won't have any food left to export or smuggle anyway, all while Ireland can source their food from the rest of the EU.

Also, why do you think UK food will be cheaper? With the EU subsidies falling away it can only get more expensive except a similar amount of subsidies will get applied by the UK - if a no-deal doesn't outright kill parts of the industry . You call EU food overpriced, but why do you think the UK supermarkets are full of them? Right, because UK foods are not cheaper, but more expensive, safe for some fish and a couple cheeses that are not popular in mainland Europe. Why do you think the UK is stockpiling food left, right and center, among other things, like medicine while they still can (and that won't come cheap btw)? Certainly not because the UK has any surplus of it. In fact, the UK is only 60% self-sufficient, meaning almost half of the food needs to be imported; and a whooping 70% of those food imports come from the EU. Btw, there's no tariff on these food imports, but the mean WTO value is 22%

The problem in that BBC article is not smuggling, but frigging normal trade! Because like Is said, everything coming in and out of NI through Ireland needs to be scanned and registered the same way as the EU with all other countries the EU has no trade agreement with

Oh, and if you come with such theories, please make them at least coherent.

And yes, you implied that bolded plenty. And no, Ireland will certainly not as dumb as the UK to leave. And again, there's no way for the EU to force out anybody. Even better, Ireland is going to Veto if the UK wants their cake and eat it too as usual.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

Oh, and about the reunification: I'd rather say the UK can soon kiss the UK goodbye, as I don't think the Scots or the Norther Eire (who both vote remain I might add) will want to stay in the UK any much longer, especially not with all the problems a no-deal poses on the population.

As afaik 2/3rds of Scotlands trade is with the rest of the UK, Scotxit from the UK could be another economy wrecking decision - unfortunately they seem pretty stuck there.

Last edited by Lafiel - on 10 February 2019

Lafiel said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Oh, and about the reunification: I'd rather say the UK can soon kiss the UK goodbye, as I don't think the Scots or the Norther Eire (who both vote remain I might add) will want to stay in the UK any much longer, especially not with all the problems a no-deal poses on the population.

As afaik 2/3rds of Scotlands trade is with the rest of the UK, Scotxit from the UK could be another economy wrecking decision - unfortunately they seem pretty stuck there.

Its less than 2/3s Lafiel.

Why?

Because 43% is directly with EU country members.... if you count other countries trade agreements from EU, that number goes higher.

Im guessing UK makes up atmost abit over 50% of scotlands trade.

Scoutxit would more or less be as bad for them as leaveing the EU (brexit)



JRPGfan said:
Lafiel said:

As afaik 2/3rds of Scotlands trade is with the rest of the UK, Scotxit from the UK could be another economy wrecking decision - unfortunately they seem pretty stuck there.

Its less than 2/3s Lafiel.

Why?

Because 43% is directly with EU country members.... if you count other countries trade agreements from EU, that number goes higher.

Im guessing UK makes up atmost abit over 50% of scotlands trade.

Scoutxit would more or less be as bad for them as leaveing the EU (brexit)

It would also leave the rest of the UK even worse off since a Scoxit would also mean that the UK would loose most of it's North Sea oil that way.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:

1. The UK having it's own import controls is just that: import controls. For everything that goes out that way, Ireland will have to set up their own import controls, and until those are set, no trade can go through. The EU is already preparing in Ireland, Calais and Rotterdam for these additional controls, the booths just need to be set up and the goods controlled. The UK is also buying scanners and the like, and planning huge parking lots because the trucks will have to wait their turn

Problem with your Article 21 theory is that it is an agreement, meaning that both the UK and the EU would need to agree on that - and that can still be shot down, especially after calling out the US for using a similar reason for taxing EU steel imports as that would make the EU and the UK look like massive hypocrites. So, not really an option.

@bolded: Thanks for the joke, I really needed a good laugh.

In case you don't know, the UK is importing vast amounts of foods and only exporting very little of it, though I agree that most of those go to Ireland. Much more likely will be that the UK won't have any food left to export or smuggle anyway, all while Ireland can source their food from the rest of the EU.

Also, why do you think UK food will be cheaper? With the EU subsidies falling away it can only get more expensive except a similar amount of subsidies will get applied by the UK - if a no-deal doesn't outright kill parts of the industry . You call EU food overpriced, but why do you think the UK supermarkets are full of them? Right, because UK foods are not cheaper, but more expensive, safe for some fish and a couple cheeses that are not popular in mainland Europe. Why do you think the UK is stockpiling food left, right and center, among other things, like medicine while they still can (and that won't come cheap btw)? Certainly not because the UK has any surplus of it. In fact, the UK is only 60% self-sufficient, meaning almost half of the food needs to be imported; and a whooping 70% of those food imports come from the EU. Btw, there's no tariff on these food imports, but the mean WTO value is 22%

The problem in that BBC article is not smuggling, but frigging normal trade! Because like Is said, everything coming in and out of NI through Ireland needs to be scanned and registered the same way as the EU with all other countries the EU has no trade agreement with

Oh, and if you come with such theories, please make them at least coherent.

And yes, you implied that bolded plenty. And no, Ireland will certainly not as dumb as the UK to leave. And again, there's no way for the EU to force out anybody. Even better, Ireland is going to Veto if the UK wants their cake and eat it too as usual.

1. Would Ireland setting up their own "import controls" mean breaking the GFA or exiting the EU single market ?

@Bold Won't matter if Ireland won't enforce a hard border with Northern Ireland ... (as long as there's no hard border in place the UK will be content to smuggle as much as they want inside of Ireland and at large the EU)

Are you implying that the EU will prepare for customs checks between Ireland and the EU ? If so then Ireland will NOT be within the EU customs union anymore and by extension the single market as well since there WILL be barriers to trade between the EU and Ireland since the latter has NO CUSTOMS CHECKS with the former ... (having customs checks between a "supposedly common territory" defeats the idea of a customs 'union')

As for article 21, the EU has absolutely no jurisdiction over Ireland to enforce a hard border so it becomes an agreement between Ireland and the UK and the EU can't do ANYTHING in the instance of no deal. Given that Ireland isn't keen on having a border with Northern Ireland they'll apply for the exemption as stated in article 21 just like the UK ...  

Is it really something to laugh about ? Especially when both France and Italy could face floodgates of cheaper produce imports from the UK ? The EU doesn't seem to think it's all that funny given their demands over a hard border in the event of no deal ... (I wonder what also happens if Ireland isn't going to give into EU demands) 

As far as food is concerned, supply would be vastly enhanced since buying outside of the EU without tariffs are far cheaper and with less regulations. Hormone injected beef, chlorinated chicken, and GMOs FTW! (Again benefits of not accepting the EU's ridiculous standards) Even with subsidies which is a lie since the UK feels far less benefits from CAP so most the funds goes to either France, Germany or Spain and even Italy benefits more from it than the UK but EU produce is still expensive as shit! EU food is overpriced but since Britain is stuck in a customs union where EU regulates that you can't have good shit like hormone injected beef, chlorinated chicken or GMOs so they're stuck with their stupidity and have no other options. The UK doesn't need to stockpile on anything really since the Irish border is open so what it needs are free trade agreements with other countries! It's not all about the tariff rates, it's more about the non-tariff barriers like regulations and refusing to use advanced American/Canadian methods to agriculture highly distorts market pricing. Americans or Canadians (this one has far shorter growing seasons compared to the EU) can enjoy the fact that they pay so little for such big portions since those guys are allowed to waste food like no tomorrow ... 

@Underlined Having ANY physical infrastructure would break the GFA so the EU can't demand this unless either Ireland caves in and decides to unilaterally violate the GFA to meet EU customs standards or Ireland is dropped out of the EU customs union itself for the EU to be able to effectively stop the smuggling ... 

I mean you can think that the UK will have it's cake and eat it too but it DOES lose something in the process with no deal like temporary stability. However, it's Ireland that stands to lose the most in all of this since Brexit will be a bigger blow to them and the EU WILL crack down on the smuggling from Ireland! What Ireland is doing is very dangerous to the EU's single market since the UK could use it's import and backdoor advantage to abuse a loophole so Ireland could end up getting kicked out of the customs union all in the name to arrogantly keep both wealth (customs union) and pride (reunification) all in the name of the so called *solidarity* to tolerate smuggling but if the EU decides to pull out Ireland from the customs union it could make Northern Ireland a lot less attracted to the idea of reunification with a poorer nation ... (even after no deal, Ireland isn't out of the woods yet)

The UK doing no deal might be dumb but DON'T think for a moment what Ireland is doing isn't dumb either and if they're going to be bitter about it until the end we'll see just how long they can maintain without single market access ... (it's just the simple reality that the EU won't tolerate goods coming from Ireland without checking and applying tariffs to it) 

Lafiel said:

it sounds like you need a little crash course in how that article really works and why nobody ever used it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfk0FSa9MR4

It sounds like you need to be the one needs to learn how to read because I've NEVER mentioned article 24, I've quoted "article 21" and while we're at maybe we need to throw in some math as well for your sake ... 

LMAO @TLDRNews, that source could not anymore biased ... (the guy behind it hardly ever gives the upsides of Brexit or let alone no deal) 



fatslob-:O said:
Lafiel said:

it sounds like you need a little crash course in how that article really works and why nobody ever used it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfk0FSa9MR4

It sounds like you need to be the one needs to learn how to read because I've NEVER mentioned article 24, I've quoted "article 21" and while we're at maybe we need to throw in some math as well for your sake ... 

did you honestly spend 1 hour writing this post? because I edited mine 1h ago (a mere 5mins after I initially posted it), as I noticed my own mistake there



Everyone talks about the danger of leaving the EU while forgetting one very important aspect.
What's the danger of staying in?
In France Marie Le Pen is fast gaining a lot more support and is considered the biggest treat to Emmanuel Macron ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-13/france-s-le-pen-starts-eu-campaign-promising-win-for-patriots ). If she wins the next election France is highly likely to leave the EU, and if France leaves it's game over for the EU, it's finished.
You can also point to Italy. What they are doing is seen by many as even more damaging than Brexit to the EU ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-22/the-eu-is-more-worried-about-italy-than-brexit ). If Italy keep making their own rules, why should other EU states follow the rules?
Well it turns out other country's like Poland already are ignoring certain rules ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-nationalism-special-report/special-report-why-poland-fell-out-of-step-with-europe-idUSKCN1MS1M3 ).
You could also point to the huge Economic problems of Greece, Spain, Ireland and others to see where the next wave of populism is likely to crop up.

If you ask me, the EU is not in good shape at all and collapse is looking more likely every year.
The UK be wise to leave the EU, take the painful couple of year hit while getting it affairs in order, because by that time the EU very well could collapse and the UK will be left as the most powerful and stable county in Europe.



Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.

100,000 jobs at risk in Germany from 'no deal' Brexit

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/10/100000-jobs-risk-germany-no-deal-brexit/



fatslob-:O said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

1. The UK having it's own import controls is just that: import controls. For everything that goes out that way, Ireland will have to set up their own import controls, and until those are set, no trade can go through. The EU is already preparing in Ireland, Calais and Rotterdam for these additional controls, the booths just need to be set up and the goods controlled. The UK is also buying scanners and the like, and planning huge parking lots because the trucks will have to wait their turn

Problem with your Article 21 theory is that it is an agreement, meaning that both the UK and the EU would need to agree on that - and that can still be shot down, especially after calling out the US for using a similar reason for taxing EU steel imports as that would make the EU and the UK look like massive hypocrites. So, not really an option.

@bolded: Thanks for the joke, I really needed a good laugh.

In case you don't know, the UK is importing vast amounts of foods and only exporting very little of it, though I agree that most of those go to Ireland. Much more likely will be that the UK won't have any food left to export or smuggle anyway, all while Ireland can source their food from the rest of the EU.

Also, why do you think UK food will be cheaper? With the EU subsidies falling away it can only get more expensive except a similar amount of subsidies will get applied by the UK - if a no-deal doesn't outright kill parts of the industry . You call EU food overpriced, but why do you think the UK supermarkets are full of them? Right, because UK foods are not cheaper, but more expensive, safe for some fish and a couple cheeses that are not popular in mainland Europe. Why do you think the UK is stockpiling food left, right and center, among other things, like medicine while they still can (and that won't come cheap btw)? Certainly not because the UK has any surplus of it. In fact, the UK is only 60% self-sufficient, meaning almost half of the food needs to be imported; and a whooping 70% of those food imports come from the EU. Btw, there's no tariff on these food imports, but the mean WTO value is 22%

The problem in that BBC article is not smuggling, but frigging normal trade! Because like Is said, everything coming in and out of NI through Ireland needs to be scanned and registered the same way as the EU with all other countries the EU has no trade agreement with

Oh, and if you come with such theories, please make them at least coherent.

And yes, you implied that bolded plenty. And no, Ireland will certainly not as dumb as the UK to leave. And again, there's no way for the EU to force out anybody. Even better, Ireland is going to Veto if the UK wants their cake and eat it too as usual.

1. Would Ireland setting up their own "import controls" mean breaking the GFA or exiting the EU single market ?

@Bold Won't matter if Ireland won't enforce a hard border with Northern Ireland ... (as long as there's no hard border in place the UK will be content to smuggle as much as they want inside of Ireland and at large the EU)

Are you implying that the EU will prepare for customs checks between Ireland and the EU ? If so then Ireland will NOT be within the EU customs union anymore and by extension the single market as well since there WILL be barriers to trade between the EU and Ireland since the latter has NO CUSTOMS CHECKS with the former ... (having customs checks between a "supposedly common territory" defeats the idea of a customs 'union')

As for article 21, the EU has absolutely no jurisdiction over Ireland to enforce a hard border so it becomes an agreement between Ireland and the UK and the EU can't do ANYTHING in the instance of no deal. Given that Ireland isn't keen on having a border with Northern Ireland they'll apply for the exemption as stated in article 21 just like the UK ...  

Is it really something to laugh about ? Especially when both France and Italy could face floodgates of cheaper produce imports from the UK ? The EU doesn't seem to think it's all that funny given their demands over a hard border in the event of no deal ... (I wonder what also happens if Ireland isn't going to give into EU demands) 

As far as food is concerned, supply would be vastly enhanced since buying outside of the EU without tariffs are far cheaper and with less regulations. Hormone injected beef, chlorinated chicken, and GMOs FTW! (Again benefits of not accepting the EU's ridiculous standards) Even with subsidies which is a lie since the UK feels far less benefits from CAP so most the funds goes to either France, Germany or Spain and even Italy benefits more from it than the UK but EU produce is still expensive as shit! EU food is overpriced but since Britain is stuck in a customs union where EU regulates that you can't have good shit like hormone injected beef, chlorinated chicken or GMOs so they're stuck with their stupidity and have no other options. The UK doesn't need to stockpile on anything really since the Irish border is open so what it needs are free trade agreements with other countries! It's not all about the tariff rates, it's more about the non-tariff barriers like regulations and refusing to use advanced American/Canadian methods to agriculture highly distorts market pricing. Americans or Canadians (this one has far shorter growing seasons compared to the EU) can enjoy the fact that they pay so little for such big portions since those guys are allowed to waste food like no tomorrow ... 

@Underlined Having ANY physical infrastructure would break the GFA so the EU can't demand this unless either Ireland caves in and decides to unilaterally violate the GFA to meet EU customs standards or Ireland is dropped out of the EU customs union itself for the EU to be able to effectively stop the smuggling ... 

I mean you can think that the UK will have it's cake and eat it too but it DOES lose something in the process with no deal like temporary stability. However, it's Ireland that stands to lose the most in all of this since Brexit will be a bigger blow to them and the EU WILL crack down on the smuggling from Ireland! What Ireland is doing is very dangerous to the EU's single market since the UK could use it's import and backdoor advantage to abuse a loophole so Ireland could end up getting kicked out of the customs union all in the name to arrogantly keep both wealth (customs union) and pride (reunification) all in the name of the so called *solidarity* to tolerate smuggling but if the EU decides to pull out Ireland from the customs union it could make Northern Ireland a lot less attracted to the idea of reunification with a poorer nation ... (even after no deal, Ireland isn't out of the woods yet)

The UK doing no deal might be dumb but DON'T think for a moment what Ireland is doing isn't dumb either and if they're going to be bitter about it until the end we'll see just how long they can maintain without single market access ... (it's just the simple reality that the EU won't tolerate goods coming from Ireland without checking and applying tariffs to it) 

Lafiel said:

it sounds like you need a little crash course in how that article really works and why nobody ever used it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfk0FSa9MR4

It sounds like you need to be the one needs to learn how to read because I've NEVER mentioned article 24, I've quoted "article 21" and while we're at maybe we need to throw in some math as well for your sake ... 

LMAO @TLDRNews, that source could not anymore biased ... (the guy behind it hardly ever gives the upsides of Brexit or let alone no deal) 

WTF??? If there will be customs checks between the Uk and Ireland doesn't fucking mean customs checks between Ireland and the rest of the EU

Also, you're on the smuggling into EU again while I pointed out that the UK doesn't fucking have anything left to fucking smuggle as they need to stockpile anything and everything. Besides, if the UK would be caught smuggling you can bet your ass nobody will even want to trade with the UK anymore. In other words, go on and smuggle, but you can kiss your country goodbye for breaking basic international rules.

I pointed out that buying outside the EU is not without tariffs. Foodstuffs have a mean 22% tariff if trading by WTO rules. It trading within the EU the tariff is 0, null, zip, nothing. But since you're leaving the EU you're leaving that option, too. Food will get more expensive in the UK. By how much actually depends on where to source the new foods and how the British pound will take the final leave, but my guess is 30-40% for everything edible that need to be imported. It will definitely not get cheaper, not by a longshot.

About your rambling about article 21, yeah the EU has no jurisdiction over closing the borders - but that's just standard procedure if you're bordering a country and you're not in a trade union. No need for the EU to do anything there, really. Also, the GFA doesn't forbid a hard border at all, just barracks , fortifications and the like. Closing the border is not a problem at all as long it's not getting remilitarised. By the way, I said before that the UK would loose Scotland and Northern Ireland due to Brexit; and it looks like with a No-Deal Northern Ireland is already set to leave. So no need for a backstop or border checks anymore if Ireland reunites

And about TLDR News: He gives all the upsides there are with Brexit. Truth is just that there are much less than Brexiteers proclaim.