18M make a lot of difference. I think it's hard, but attainable for Switch to get over 100M.

Ok so how about you just say what your yearly projections are instead of me constantly coming up with numbers showing how going below 3DS/75 million isnt likely.

Of curse not. By march next year which will be its "first two years" it would have sold around 32M. And unless something greatly changes it will average around 800k sales a month up until around november and december.

So lets not get ahead of ourselves here. 

You really think it will only reach 32 by march? I'm pessimistic about nintendo shipment but only shipping 15 million?

But you dont have to though.....

You have made your position clear on this and how going below 75M - 80M is unlikely. I think it will. I dont have to give yearly predictions but you can be certain they are all lower than your own yearly predictions. And in truth I am expecting sales next year t be very similar to sales this year. Not up. A lot of my theory is riding n that happening.

Like next year I expect it t do like 17M which could be around 1M more or flat over what it does this year. I expect it to do less than that in 2020 which is when I expect the PS5/XB2 to be released. 

So yh..... my numbers are just generally lower than yours. And that pretty much goes out the window if next year its tracking significantly up monthly and ends up having a 20M selling year.

Even Michael Pachter's prediction is higher than that.  

Right now (using VGC numbers) the NS is at  24M. Now if for the last 5 weeks of the year it somehow sells 1M per week thats 5M brining its total to 29M by the end f the year. Then come january its back to selling at the normal rate. If it remains flat then we are looking at around 800k/month and if the baseline goes up then say around 1M/month.

I assumed the baseline will go up and that will bring january through march sales to around 3M. Thats how I ended up with 32M, and you think that is pessimistic?

This is looking at how sales has been this year and even making accomodations for the baseline going up next year. And predicting sales of 5M over the last 5 weeks of this year.

Ship numbers are only official numbers we have, and at end of March 2019. Switch will have around 36-37m shipped units, and around half of number that you mentioned (75-80m).

Keep in mind that all Nintendo numbers are ship (sold to retailers), so predictions for years should be for ship units, espacily when we talking about LT predictions because at end for any console ship units is equal sales units at end.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

Yeah, technically it is, Deluxe model included one game with some other auditions (more memory, more equipment), so you had better value for same price point, but you didn't had lower price point. Talking about baseline, Mario 3D World was launch in November 2013. and Mario Kart 8 launch in May 2014. that gave boost Wii U sales.

oh pls are you kidding me? Why should I be talkin shipped numbers when we are clearly talking sold to consumers. 

I am and have been talking about sold numbers not shipped. And in the same site you linked they have the switch there at 22M or so. I am using VGC numbers like we all have used it for every other platform. And I strongly doubt all the people that have been replying me and putting up FY numbers were talking about shipped numbers either. Or not those are all some really small shipment numbers. 

Look I can't be having to similar but totally different conversations at the same time. I am talking about sold to consumers. You know, the stuff NPD and famitsu tracks. Not shipped numbers simply cause those will always be higher. And its simple... nintendo said they wanna ship 20M for the FY. That will take total shipments to 37M by march 2019. Unless there are adjustments.