Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:
It does eventually have to fall behind 3DS to sell less than 75 million, you just agreed with me that year 4 will sell 12+ million putting LTD at ~67.5 million by March 2021. Do you realize how big of a drop it would need to have to miss 75 million?
These are the median numbers for the estimates I gave (estimates you just agreed with)
2.74m
15.05m
FY19-18.5m (LTD 36.5m)
FY20-17.5m (LTD 54.0m)
FY21-13.5m (LTD 67.5m)
How big of a drop are you expecting at that point?
FY22-6.0m (LTD 73.5m)
FY23-1.5m (LTD 75m)
That's a 55% drop followed by a 75% drop for FY 5 & 6 which I believe would be the most significant drops for any successful platform.
Not even Wii or GBA had nearly that bad of declines and Wii is known for having a harsh decline while GBA was replaced in its 4th fiscal year.
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I did say plus or minus 5M. So my ceiling is actually 80M. But to keep thins interesting I am using the 3DS as my marker.
And saying I agree with your numbers doesn't mean I agree with everything literally. Like i would replace FY19 18.5M with 17M and FY 20 with 16M.
80M is my ceiling. What I am expecting is really around 75M by the time the next Switch is released.
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Ok so how about you just say what your yearly projections are instead of me constantly coming up with numbers showing how going below 3DS/75 million isnt likely.
Essay Pro