Right but 2017 also had pent-up demand since it was supply constrained for so long. I doubt Switch will miss its goal by a million. That seems way too drastic. Though I will be curious to see if both consoles miss their goals which will end up closer by percentage. Right now with KH3 delayed until January and no sign of a Granblue release, I can only think Switch will easily get closer if not surpass its goal. Sony's lineup is dreadful and the only way I could see them getting close is with a solid and well-stocked price cut.
The goal is double as high as the PS4-goal. 4M in Japan alone in one year is a lofty goal. Selliing 3M is already exceptional.
I wouldn't say 4M in Japan in one year is a lofty goal. If it's going to make 20M global shipments it'll need at least ~5M in Japan for the fiscal year.
I think the PS4 will definitely be closer. Even if it averages 20K for the rest of the year, it'll be ~495K off. Of course, there's no way Sony doesn't do an official price cut this year, WW. It'll be $299 for 2 years this year. We're at least getting one that is the equivalent of ~$50. That, and some Western games that could boost sales somewhat, are why I think it will only be ~200K off, or ~10% off.
If the Switch averages 55K for the rest of the year, that would put it at ~2.63M. In these slower weeks, it seems to be doing a little less than 55K, which means more to make up for towards the end of the year. I definitely see it having some great holiday weeks, as well as weeks where some larger games release, which should boost it to ~3M, or 25% off. But, 4M is just too much of a stretch in my mind.