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So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

With what we know now at the moment, I'm not sure if Nintendo will reach their shipment goal for hardware, but it'll likely be close.

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate appears to not only breaking series records and showing why it's one of Nintendo's biggest franchises and the biggest video game crossover we will ever see, but it's also doing its part in moving hardware. We've seen the last couple of weeks that Smash Bros. Ultimate is a significant driver in hardware sales in Japan (not sure how significant it will be in the US and Europe, but it should be great).

Plus, Pokemon Let's Go appears to be holding its own, especially as being mainly a remake of Pokemon Yellow and not a new generation game. The Poke Ball accessory should net some nice additional income for Nintendo, Game Freak, and the Pokemon Company.

Super Mario Party is a surprise hit, as well. While I'm sure most of expected respectable sales for the game, as it's still Mario Party, the game appears to be doing more than it's fair share of appealing new Switch owners. Plus, the Black Friday Joy Con bundle appears to have done wonders. It doesn't hurt that the game itself is considered a well-done, back-to-basics game that brings back old fans who may have fallen out of love with the series.

Then you got the evergreen titles that continue to sell. Hell, even Xenoblade Chronicles 2 has managed to get back into the top 30 of the eshop (US, at least) after being out of the rankings for almost a year.



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I've been saying they won't ship 20m since about a year ago, but now I am ready to eat my words. I made that statement thinking there would be no mainline Pokemon game this year. And while there technically wasn't, they released something close enough that is selling extremely well. Also their third party games have been performing better this year than I expected, and they have a strong quarter coming up with the port of NSMB U.

If they don't ship, 20m then they are going to get really close.



They will smash it if Fire Emblem or any big first party (Animal Crossing, Luigi Mansion etc) releases right before their fiscal year ending.

Last year it was Bayonetta 1/2 and Kirby.



Switch is selling great and much better than is same period (Nov-Dec) of last year, so they have good chance hitting their target (better than they looked 2 months ago), but even if they dont hit it they will be very close, in worst case 18m+.



Still too early to tell. 



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I think Ninty will make it, it was full of very positive surprises!



5m april-september
1.2m October
3.1m November
6.5m December
1.4m January
1.1m February
0.8m March
Total: 19,1.
So they will fail in their prediction. But yoy Nintendo Switch will sell 25% more.



"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs

manuelogando40 said:
5m april-september
1.2m October
3.1m November
6.5m December
1.4m January
1.1m February
0.8m March
Total: 19,1.
So they will fail in their prediction. But yoy Nintendo Switch will sell 25% more.

Seriously doubt Nintendo can sell 6.5m Switch's in december.
At most it ll be like abit above 5m, at worst it ll be barely be over 4m.

That should take your total down to 16,5 to 17,5, which is alot more realistic with how things have been going so far.
Nintendo is going to fall short of those 20m and not just by 1m but by more than that.

If nintendo wanted to do a 20m year, they would have needed to stay well ahead of the PS4 more or less all year round.
Sadly that didnt end up happending, and having unrealistic expectations of the holidays isnt going to fix it.



JRPGfan said:
manuelogando40 said:
5m april-september
1.2m October
3.1m November
6.5m December
1.4m January
1.1m February
0.8m March
Total: 19,1.
So they will fail in their prediction. But yoy Nintendo Switch will sell 25% more.

Seriously doubt Nintendo can sell 6.5m Switch's in december.
At most it ll be like abit above 5m, at worst it ll be barely be over 4m.

That should take your total down to 16,5 to 17,5, which is alot more realistic with how things have been going so far.
Nintendo is going to fall short of those 20m and not just by 1m but by more than that.

If nintendo wanted to do a 20m year, they would have needed to stay well ahead of the PS4 more or less all year round.
Sadly that didnt end up happending, and having unrealistic expectations of the holidays isnt going to fix it.

3.1m EEUU

1m Japan

2m Europe

0.4 Resto of the world

Total:6.5



"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs

manuelogando40 said:
JRPGfan said:

Seriously doubt Nintendo can sell 6.5m Switch's in december.
At most it ll be like abit above 5m, at worst it ll be barely be over 4m.

That should take your total down to 16,5 to 17,5, which is alot more realistic with how things have been going so far.
Nintendo is going to fall short of those 20m and not just by 1m but by more than that.

If nintendo wanted to do a 20m year, they would have needed to stay well ahead of the PS4 more or less all year round.
Sadly that didnt end up happending, and having unrealistic expectations of the holidays isnt going to fix it.

3.1m EEUU

1m Japan

2m Europe

0.4 Resto of the world

Total:6.5

Talking about, Japan only last 2 weeks sold 560k units, with this sales it should be at around 900k with one week left that will probably be around 200k, so thats around 1.1m sold units in Japan in December, and ship number will be more than that.