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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

The_Liquid_Laser on 10 June 2018
Mnementh said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Depends on what we mean by good third party support.  What "I" mean is that it will have lots of games.  The DS, for example, had lots of third party games even though it didn't have any that sold like GTA.  The DS is basically tied for best selling console of all time though.  It had solid first party software, but first party software didn't drive hardware sales to the same extent as the Wii.  Wii had more 20m+ sellers not to mention Wii Sports which was a huge cultural phenomenon.  The DS just had a very large and diverse library.  It sold well and for a long time, because it had a huge third party library.

I actually expect Switch to have a better third party library than the DS.  All of those smaller developers that normally make handheld games for 3DS/Vita are going to be making Switch games now.  It's pretty clear that indies are also coming to the Switch in droves.  But on top of that most multiplat PS4/XB1 games I expect to include a Switch version starting next year.  So if all of this is true, the Switch will have an amazing third party library, right?

But you probably question if Switch will get a version of the games that PS4/XB1 are getting.  In your other thread you compared third party sales performance for a variety of multiplat games.  The interesting thing is that the Switch version outsold the XB1 version at least half the time (and with a smaller install base no less).  In spite of all this XB1 is still going to get plenty of multiplat games.  So if third parties will port their game to XB1, then why wouldn't they also port to the better performing Switch?

You also make a fair point about games being easier to upscale rather than downscale, but this applies to games that started development before the Switch was released.  For example, we shouldn't expect a game like Monster Hunter World to come Switch, because it would have started development before Capcom knew if the Switch was going to be successful.  However, any game that started development in 2017 or later can be made with Switch in mind from the ground up.  For example, if there is a new Monster Hunter in 2020 then you can count on it coming to Switch.  They would have had time to plan for a Switch release from the very beginning.

So this is what I mean by very good third party support: a really large library of exclusives from smaller studios, plus a decent amount of ports from bigger studios too.  When you put all of that with Nintendo's first party games, you get a pretty impressive library overall, and that impressive library is going to sell a lot of Switches.

Ah, OK I see, we have a different understanding about what good 3rd-party support means. I agree, the Switch will clearly outdo the support the 3DS/DS and Vita got. It probably gets most of the output of the game studios that worked on these three and additionally most japanese games (although many already were on Vita or 3DS), many Indies and some western high profile games (like the Bethesda ones). If you compare it to XBox One the waters become more muddied. I still think Switch can manage the same level of support or even outdo the XBox One, but it will be a total different library. Of the games I mentioned all the japanese support, most of the former handheld support and some Indies will mmiss the XBox One. Instead it will become western high profile games, which are missing the Switch. So it really depends on what games a gamer prefers for the decision which support looks better. And for the PS4 I sincerely doubt Switch can outdo that level of support or even reach it. Yes, PS4 will probably miss most of the handheld-level support, but it will get the same japanese and indie games (maybe even more, not sure here), while at the same time getting pretty much all of western high profile games. So in level of 3rd-party support it will be Vita < DS/3DS < Switch ~ XB1 < PS4.

For me it will be good, because I dislike many western big games, but really like japanese games. Also I like Nintendo games, which will also be included in the library. And for sales of the device the Nintendo games are obviously very important. This is what sold Wii, DS and 3DS. So how much will the Switch get? I'm not sure here. I think we are past the point that the Switch may stay below 80M in the end. So I clearly see it doing at least 3DS-numbers. It probably can do Wii-numbers. But I see difficulties past 120M. I currently don't see it competitive with PS5 and for DS-levels the Switch costs too much, the DS was much much cheaper. I had multiple DS and many families owned a DS for each child. I don't see that happen with Switch. But that is some years in the future, we'll see.

Yeah, this is what I'm thinking.  Switch will have a better library than any of their previous handhelds, although it also launched at a higher price than any previous handheld.  I think it will sell at least as well as the 3DS to the handheld market (probably better).

In the home market, it will have a third party library of comparable quality to XB1, although with a different makeup: more Japanese games and fewer Western games.  But when you add in Nintendo's first party games, then you realize that they will have an incredible library overall, really more like the PS4 in total, because Nintendo's first party library is so strong.  So I think Switch will sell like PS4 to the home market. 

Now add these two markets together and you get a good idea of how much hardware the Switch will sell.  This is a good ballpark.  I realize there is some crossover between the two markets, but I don't think it is too great, maybe only 10-20%.  In the end Switch will be the best selling console yet.



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HoangNhatAnh on 10 June 2018
Mnementh said:
Hiku said:

You're really not sure if PS4 will get more Japanese support?
I didn't think that was a question. If we're talking about console-level games rather than games that would normally come out on 3DS or it's successor?

Whenever a Japanese third party console level game is announced (that doesn't have an exclusivity deal) it's a given that the PS4 logo will appear at the end of the trailer.
The same can not be said for the Switch logo up until this point. When it does occur it's been the exception rather than the rule. For every Valkyria Chronicles 4, there are multiple cases like Dead or Alive 6 where the Switch logo is absent.

I'll still give it another year to see how the situation improves, because I think it will, but even in a best case scenario it's hard to imagine it being a question if PS4 will get better Japanese support. And certainly not at this point when virtually every PS4 port Switch has gotten has either been a cross generational title with PS3/360 and/or a situation where the framerate could be cut in half. And most games do not run at 60f on PS4.

You're right. That drives through my point even more, that Switch will not reach PS4-levels of 3rd-party support.

And ps4 will not reach Switch-levels of 1st-party support



HoangNhatAnh on 10 June 2018
LethalP said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

Multiplat? PC is the best for that, Switch have it own unique exclusive games not the same games like other systems. Also, Monster Hunter World? I'd rather it never come out to Switch, straight hack and slash for casual with contents, monsters, weapons = 1/3 Monster Hunter XX. Keep that casual thing out of Switch!

 "Tell me why Switch didn't get Mass Effect Andromeda, Ghost Recon, For Honor, Sniper Elite 4, Prey, Injustice 2, Shadow Warrior 2, Tekken 7, Dirt 4, Hellblade, Destiny 2, Shadow Of War, The Evil Within 2, CoD WWII, Battlefront II, Assassin's Creed Origins, Monster Hunter World, Far Cry 5, A Way Out, The Crew 2, Agony, Kingdom Come Deliverance, Shadow Of The Tomb Raider, Assassin's Creed Odyssey, Red Dead Redemption 2, CoD Black Ops 4, Battlefield V, Avengers game and many more, yet all of these come to PS4 and Xbox One almost as an obligation?" the same apply to all Switch exclusive games which didn't come to ps4/xbox 1

Yet multiplats sell more on PS4 than PC, despite a far smaller install base. Monster Hunter World is considered one of the best in the franchise, so your loss lol. You sound bitter to be honest.

Those games I listed have one thing in common, they released on the competing platforms yet skipped Switch. None of these are exclsuive, they're third party. Question is, why isn't Switch getting them? You can say you don't care about them all you want but that's besides the point. You aren't important, good support is important.

Yeah multiplats sell more on PS4 than PC, but how about Switch? At least many Japan and indies games sell more on Switch than ps4, some games even outsold ps4/xbox 1/pc combined. Good support is important but sales is even more important, Switch = 3DS + Wii U support + some big third party games from both Western and JP, not to mention 1st games will be the strongest, it doesn't need to beat ps4, but very close to ps4 sale is way more than enough, Switch is the 1st Hybrid console, after all



raulbalarezo on 10 June 2018

Seeing the amount of multiplat games announced in this E3 that won't make it to the switch, PS4 will be leading next year again with good exclusives too and a possible price drop 

Last edited by raulbalarezo - on 10 June 2018

Bofferbrauer2 on 11 June 2018
Hiku said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

This was probably true last year, when the publishers were wary after the Wii U's failure, but by now it's more and more becoming the exception rather than the rule. With PS4 sales plateauing in Japan ans Switch Pacmaning the sales there, there's just little incentive to leave out the Switch anymore, even moreso since sales worldwide are not very far apart between the two.

If there were no hardware issue, it would be as simple as that. But you can look at the Wii as an example of why sales don't mean the system will be properly supported by high profile Japanese games. Instead of Resident Evil 5 and 6, Wii got a port of a previous gen game, Resident Evil 4. Instead of the Final Fantasy XIII series, it got the Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles series. No Kingdom Hearts, no Street Fighter, Tekken, Marvel vs Capcom, Devil May Cry, it missed most Tales games, Dynasty Warriors games, and the list goes on and on.
What Japanese third party developers did instead was that rather than bringing over mainline games from their most popular franchises, they would develop games specifically designed for Wii. Often times just to get in on the wiimote trend.

Right now with the Switch, it's been more than a year and it's still sticking with the same trend from the year before. If a game isn't running on an engine from PS3/360 era, and/or running at 60fps, we're not seeing them being announced for Switch. With the exception of Dragon Quest XI, as far as I can recall at least. And we still haven't seen a single screenshot from the Switch version, and it is having some development issues that has pushed it back to at least 2019 from the sound of it. (It came out in early 2017 in Japan.)

Here's a list of non-indie Japanese PS4 games announced for 2018 and beyond that are not known to have any exclusivity agreement.
Also because there are so many obscure Japanese titles releasing every month, I'll limit it to more well known franchises, or games from big developers/publishers. 
I'll put a checkmark next to the ones that are also announced for Switch.

Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth
Monster Hunter: World
Dragon Ball FighterZ (Although rumored to be announced at E3. We'll see in a few days.)
Dissidia Final Fantasy NT
Dynasty Warriors 9
Metal Gear Survive
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet
Devil May Cry HD Collection
Yakuza 6
Yakuza Kiwami
Yakuza Kiwami 2
Persona 3 Dancing Moon Night
Persona 5 Dancing Star Night
Ace Combat 7: Skies Unknown
Code Vein
Dragon's Crown Pro
Fist of the North Star
Kingdom hearts III
Final Fantasy VII: Remake
Naruto to Boruto: Shinobi Striker
SoulCalibur VI
Dead or Alive 6
One Piece: World Seeker
Granblue Fantasy Project Re: Link
Resident Evil 2 Remake (No platform has been announced, but we can be sure one of them will be PS4.)
New Gundam Breaker
Devil May Cry 5
Valkyria Chronicles 4 ✓
Lost Sphear ✓
Attack on Titan 2 ✓
Megaman 11 ✓
Dragon Quest XI ✓
Dark Souls: Remastered ✓
BlazBlue: Cross Tag Battle ✓

Japanese PS4 games headed for Switch is still very much the exception rather than the rule. But what's particularly interesting to note here out of the games also announced for Switch, is that they're following the trend of running on last gen engines (or in Megaman 11's case, a rather primitive one) with the exception of Dragon Quest XI. (And that one has, as I mentioned, ran into development issues for the Switch version. (So did Dark Souls Remastered btw))
Just like every previous PS4 to Switch game I can think of, and/or where they've cut the framerate in half, or worse. (I Am Setsuna, Dragon Quest Warriors 2, Doom, Sonic Forces, etc.)

So until I see even one single example of a PS4 & Switch game where this isn't the case, that's where I set the bar for what kind of games I'm expecting in the future.
That's why Dragon Quest XI will be particularly interesting for me to see. Although it being the first Switch third party game announced so many years ago and it doesn't look like it'll be out until at least 2019, it's not a great look for how much effort it can take. But I still want to see how it turns out.

For Monster Hunter World, Nintendo didn't get invited to the talks, which were before even the Switch was announced. This could also be the same problem for some other titles in the list, especially if they were meant to sell in the west like it was the case for MHW. They did get an XX port instead for now.

For those in italics, those IPs have either never been on a Nintendo console (DMC, Yakuza), or not since SNES days (Final Fantasy mainline entries). Pretty clear there's no intention to bring those to a Nintendo console even if it were more powerful than the Playstation of it's time (like the Gamecube did).

With Gundam I'm not sure, but I think  I read that there is an exclusivity deal here.



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TheBlackNaruto on 11 June 2018
HoangNhatAnh said:
LethalP said:

Two of those are exclusives made for Switch, which is technically third party support but I was talking multiplat support of major AAA games.

WiiU got Batman Arkham City, CoD, Assassin's Creed, Mass Effect. Nintendo fans were bragging about third party support being adequate, but it didn't last. Nor did it ever really have full fledged support even in the beginning, nor does the Switch.

Tell me why Switch didn't get Mass Effect Andromeda, Ghost Recon, For Honor, Sniper Elite 4, Prey, Injustice 2, Shadow Warrior 2, Tekken 7, Dirt 4, Hellblade, Destiny 2, Shadow Of War, The Evil Within 2, CoD WWII, Battlefront II, Assassin's Creed Origins, Monster Hunter World, Far Cry 5, A Way Out, The Crew 2, Agony, Kingdom Come Deliverance, Shadow Of The Tomb Raider, Assassin's Creed Odyssey, Red Dead Redemption 2, CoD Black Ops 4, Battlefield V, Avengers game and many more, yet all of these come to PS4 and Xbox One almost as an obligation? There's something wrong when a system projected to outsell Xbox One in the next 24 months isn't getting the bulk of major releases in any given year. So far Switch hasn't gotten one of the major selling titles in 2018. Why? If Switch is such a fertile ground for third parties then why the fuck is this the case? 

 

 

Multiplat? PC is the best for that, Switch have it own unique exclusive games not the same games like other systems. Also, Monster Hunter World? I'd rather it never come out to Switch, straight hack and slash for casual with contents, monsters, weapons = 1/3 Monster Hunter XX. Keep that casual thing out of Switch!

 "Tell me why Switch didn't get Mass Effect Andromeda, Ghost Recon, For Honor, Sniper Elite 4, Prey, Injustice 2, Shadow Warrior 2, Tekken 7, Dirt 4, Hellblade, Destiny 2, Shadow Of War, The Evil Within 2, CoD WWII, Battlefront II, Assassin's Creed Origins, Monster Hunter World, Far Cry 5, A Way Out, The Crew 2, Agony, Kingdom Come Deliverance, Shadow Of The Tomb Raider, Assassin's Creed Odyssey, Red Dead Redemption 2, CoD Black Ops 4, Battlefield V, Avengers game and many more, yet all of these come to PS4 and Xbox One almost as an obligation?" the same apply to all Switch exclusive games which didn't come to ps4/xbox 1

Outside of PC being the best for Multiplats your post makes no sense lol. And why say keep that "casual thing" off the Switch when talking about MHW? It is the best selling MH game yet but you don't want ti on the system? That is odd but I guess....Pokemon Let's GO looks casual, Labo looks casual, 1-2 Switch casual.....I mean is it bad or something to have causual games? Then this part.....

"The same apply to all Switch exclusive games which don't come to PS4/xbox 1" well yeah that is obvious lol. THEY ARE SWITCH EXCLUSIVE GAMES.........so that is the reason why they are not on PS4/XB1.......so what was the point of saying that when discussing multiplats? That is like saying tell me why The Last of Us, Uncharted, GoW, Gears of war, Halo, Forza etc are not on Switch......because they are PS4/XB1 exclusives lol. Not an attack but that last statement just didn't make sense at all.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

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HoangNhatAnh on 11 June 2018
TheBlackNaruto said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

Multiplat? PC is the best for that, Switch have it own unique exclusive games not the same games like other systems. Also, Monster Hunter World? I'd rather it never come out to Switch, straight hack and slash for casual with contents, monsters, weapons = 1/3 Monster Hunter XX. Keep that casual thing out of Switch!

 "Tell me why Switch didn't get Mass Effect Andromeda, Ghost Recon, For Honor, Sniper Elite 4, Prey, Injustice 2, Shadow Warrior 2, Tekken 7, Dirt 4, Hellblade, Destiny 2, Shadow Of War, The Evil Within 2, CoD WWII, Battlefront II, Assassin's Creed Origins, Monster Hunter World, Far Cry 5, A Way Out, The Crew 2, Agony, Kingdom Come Deliverance, Shadow Of The Tomb Raider, Assassin's Creed Odyssey, Red Dead Redemption 2, CoD Black Ops 4, Battlefield V, Avengers game and many more, yet all of these come to PS4 and Xbox One almost as an obligation?" the same apply to all Switch exclusive games which didn't come to ps4/xbox 1

Outside of PC being the best for Multiplats your post makes no sense lol. And why say keep that "casual thing" off the Switch when talking about MHW? It is the best selling MH game yet but you don't want ti on the system? That is odd but I guess....Pokemon Let's GO looks casual, Labo looks casual, 1-2 Switch casual.....I mean is it bad or something to have causual games? Then this part.....

"The same apply to all Switch exclusive games which don't come to PS4/xbox 1" well yeah that is obvious lol. THEY ARE SWITCH EXCLUSIVE GAMES.........so that is the reason why they are not on PS4/XB1.......so what was the point of saying that when discussing multiplats? That is like saying tell me why The Last of Us, Uncharted, GoW, Gears of war, Halo, Forza etc are not on Switch......because they are PS4/XB1 exclusives lol. Not an attack but that last statement just didn't make sense at all.

The World End With You or SMTV for example, TWEWY can come to smartphone but will never ever come to ps4/xbox



Megiddo on 11 June 2018

That was like a DS game or something, right? Yeah, that would look like a complete mess on PS4/X1.



TheBlackNaruto on 11 June 2018
HoangNhatAnh said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Outside of PC being the best for Multiplats your post makes no sense lol. And why say keep that "casual thing" off the Switch when talking about MHW? It is the best selling MH game yet but you don't want ti on the system? That is odd but I guess....Pokemon Let's GO looks casual, Labo looks casual, 1-2 Switch casual.....I mean is it bad or something to have causual games? Then this part.....

"The same apply to all Switch exclusive games which don't come to PS4/xbox 1" well yeah that is obvious lol. THEY ARE SWITCH EXCLUSIVE GAMES.........so that is the reason why they are not on PS4/XB1.......so what was the point of saying that when discussing multiplats? That is like saying tell me why The Last of Us, Uncharted, GoW, Gears of war, Halo, Forza etc are not on Switch......because they are PS4/XB1 exclusives lol. Not an attack but that last statement just didn't make sense at all.

The World End With You or SMTV for example, TWEWY can come to smartphone but will never ever come to ps4/xbox

But again they are exclusive games so why bring them up? We know they will never come to PS4/XB1......so why bring them up when talking about the multiplat games from the big 3rd party developers?



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

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HoangNhatAnh on 11 June 2018
TheBlackNaruto said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

The World End With You or SMTV for example, TWEWY can come to smartphone but will never ever come to ps4/xbox

But again they are exclusive games so why bring them up? We know they will never come to PS4/XB1......so why bring them up when talking about the multiplat games from the big 3rd party developers?

Because Nintendo handheld sales is always based on specific game of it own. And DS power is nothing compared to psp/ps3 but sold amazing well