Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Mnementh said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Depends on what we mean by good third party support.  What "I" mean is that it will have lots of games.  The DS, for example, had lots of third party games even though it didn't have any that sold like GTA.  The DS is basically tied for best selling console of all time though.  It had solid first party software, but first party software didn't drive hardware sales to the same extent as the Wii.  Wii had more 20m+ sellers not to mention Wii Sports which was a huge cultural phenomenon.  The DS just had a very large and diverse library.  It sold well and for a long time, because it had a huge third party library.

I actually expect Switch to have a better third party library than the DS.  All of those smaller developers that normally make handheld games for 3DS/Vita are going to be making Switch games now.  It's pretty clear that indies are also coming to the Switch in droves.  But on top of that most multiplat PS4/XB1 games I expect to include a Switch version starting next year.  So if all of this is true, the Switch will have an amazing third party library, right?

But you probably question if Switch will get a version of the games that PS4/XB1 are getting.  In your other thread you compared third party sales performance for a variety of multiplat games.  The interesting thing is that the Switch version outsold the XB1 version at least half the time (and with a smaller install base no less).  In spite of all this XB1 is still going to get plenty of multiplat games.  So if third parties will port their game to XB1, then why wouldn't they also port to the better performing Switch?

You also make a fair point about games being easier to upscale rather than downscale, but this applies to games that started development before the Switch was released.  For example, we shouldn't expect a game like Monster Hunter World to come Switch, because it would have started development before Capcom knew if the Switch was going to be successful.  However, any game that started development in 2017 or later can be made with Switch in mind from the ground up.  For example, if there is a new Monster Hunter in 2020 then you can count on it coming to Switch.  They would have had time to plan for a Switch release from the very beginning.

So this is what I mean by very good third party support: a really large library of exclusives from smaller studios, plus a decent amount of ports from bigger studios too.  When you put all of that with Nintendo's first party games, you get a pretty impressive library overall, and that impressive library is going to sell a lot of Switches.

Ah, OK I see, we have a different understanding about what good 3rd-party support means. I agree, the Switch will clearly outdo the support the 3DS/DS and Vita got. It probably gets most of the output of the game studios that worked on these three and additionally most japanese games (although many already were on Vita or 3DS), many Indies and some western high profile games (like the Bethesda ones). If you compare it to XBox One the waters become more muddied. I still think Switch can manage the same level of support or even outdo the XBox One, but it will be a total different library. Of the games I mentioned all the japanese support, most of the former handheld support and some Indies will mmiss the XBox One. Instead it will become western high profile games, which are missing the Switch. So it really depends on what games a gamer prefers for the decision which support looks better. And for the PS4 I sincerely doubt Switch can outdo that level of support or even reach it. Yes, PS4 will probably miss most of the handheld-level support, but it will get the same japanese and indie games (maybe even more, not sure here), while at the same time getting pretty much all of western high profile games. So in level of 3rd-party support it will be Vita < DS/3DS < Switch ~ XB1 < PS4.

For me it will be good, because I dislike many western big games, but really like japanese games. Also I like Nintendo games, which will also be included in the library. And for sales of the device the Nintendo games are obviously very important. This is what sold Wii, DS and 3DS. So how much will the Switch get? I'm not sure here. I think we are past the point that the Switch may stay below 80M in the end. So I clearly see it doing at least 3DS-numbers. It probably can do Wii-numbers. But I see difficulties past 120M. I currently don't see it competitive with PS5 and for DS-levels the Switch costs too much, the DS was much much cheaper. I had multiple DS and many families owned a DS for each child. I don't see that happen with Switch. But that is some years in the future, we'll see.

Yeah, this is what I'm thinking.  Switch will have a better library than any of their previous handhelds, although it also launched at a higher price than any previous handheld.  I think it will sell at least as well as the 3DS to the handheld market (probably better).

In the home market, it will have a third party library of comparable quality to XB1, although with a different makeup: more Japanese games and fewer Western games.  But when you add in Nintendo's first party games, then you realize that they will have an incredible library overall, really more like the PS4 in total, because Nintendo's first party library is so strong.  So I think Switch will sell like PS4 to the home market. 

Now add these two markets together and you get a good idea of how much hardware the Switch will sell.  This is a good ballpark.  I realize there is some crossover between the two markets, but I don't think it is too great, maybe only 10-20%.  In the end Switch will be the best selling console yet.